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Bermain Piano Dapat Memperkuat Keterampilan Motorik Baik Artikel ini adalah yang keempat dari serangkaian artikel yang ditulis untuk Pusat Pembelajaran mengenai manfaat belajar musik. Situs web Asosiasi Guru Musik Nasional mencantumkan salah satu manfaat memainkan alat musik, piano dalam hal ini, diperkuat koordinasi mata-tangan dan keterampilan motorik halus yang disempurnakan. The MTNA tidak sendirian dalam temuan ini banyak situs guru piano dan studio juga melaporkan pengamatan serupa. Apa keterampilan motorik halus dan koordinasi tangan-tangan Bagaimana keterampilan ini digunakan dalam kehidupan kita sehari-hari Menurut Ensiklopedia online Kesehatan Anak, koordinasi tangan-mata adalah kemampuan sistem penglihatan untuk mengkoordinasikan informasi yang diterima melalui Mata untuk mengendalikan, membimbing, dan mengarahkan tangan dalam menyelesaikan tugas tertentu, seperti tulisan tangan atau menangkap bola. Koordinasi tangan-mata menggunakan mata untuk menarik perhatian dan tangan untuk melakukan suatu tugas. Keterampilan ini digunakan dalam semua aspek fungsi tubuh manusia. Dengan kesempatan untuk meningkatkan atau memperkuat keterampilan ini, kita pasti ingin mengejar informasi ini tidak hanya untuk diri kita sendiri tetapi juga untuk anak-anak kita. Jika studi piano dapat membantu Anda mencapai hal ini, Anda memiliki satu alasan lagi untuk melihat secara serius produk di tinjauan perangkat lunak dan situs piano untuk belajar piano secara online. Organisasi musik profesional lainnya, American Music Conference, baru-baru ini merilis laporan Dr. Arthur Harvey berikut 10 Fakta Cepat yang berkaitan dengan dampak musik terhadap kesejahteraan orang. Musik memiliki dampak yang jelas pada otak dan harus didukung dan didorong, terutama pada pendidikan anak usia dini dan melalui semua tahap dan usia belajar. Memainkan kekuatan instrumen adalah koordinasi tangan-mata dan keterampilan motorik halus, serta konsentrasi, daya ingat dan sikap. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pelatihan musik meningkatkan penalaran spasial-temporal pada anak prasekolah, yang diperlukan untuk pembelajaran matematika dan sains, serta mata pelajaran lainnya. Sebuah studi baru-baru ini menunjukkan bahwa sebuah kurikulum yang menggabungkan pelajaran piano, perangkat lunak matematika pendidikan dan masalah matematika yang menyenangkan membantu siswa kelas dua mencapai nilai pada konsep matematika tingkat lanjut dan nilai matematika Stanford 9 sebanding dengan siswa kelas empat. Siswa yang membuat musik telah terbukti bisa bergaul lebih baik dengan teman sekelas dan memiliki masalah diskus yang lebih sedikit. Orang muda yang terlibat dalam membuat musik di usia remaja mereka mencetak 100 poin lebih tinggi di SAT daripada mereka yang tidak bermain musik. Warga senior yang secara aktif terlibat dalam pembuatan musik menikmati manfaat kesehatan yang signifikan. Misalnya, penelitian menunjukkan bahwa musik mengaktifkan otak kecil dan oleh karena itu dapat membantu korban stroke dalam mendapatkan kembali kemampuan bahasa. Banyak tantangan yang mengganggu orang Amerika yang lebih tua tampaknya merespons secara positif terhadap pembuatan musik yang aktif. Misalnya, penelitian ilmiah menunjukkan perbaikan kimia otak penderita Alzheimers Disease. Studi menunjukkan bahwa kaleng Ameri yang lebih tua yang secara aktif terlibat dalam pembuatan pertunjukan musik menunjukkan kecemasan, kesepian dan depresi tiga faktor yang sangat penting dalam mengatasi stres, merangsang sistem kekebalan tubuh dan meningkatkan kesehatan. Sebuah penelitian terobosan menunjukkan bahwa pelajaran keyboard kelompok yang diberikan pada orang tua Amerika memiliki efek signifikan pada peningkatan kadar hormon pertumbuhan manusia (HGH), yang terkait dengan fenomena penuaan seperti osteoporosis, tingkat energi, kerutan, fungsi seksual, massa otot, dan sakit dan nyeri. Penting untuk dicatat bahwa beberapa pernyataan pertama berhubungan dengan keterampilan motorik dan fungsi otak. Dengan begitu banyak alasan bagus untuk belajar piano yang sudah diketahui, berikut adalah beberapa alasan untuk ditambahkan ke daftar yang dimulai dengan peningkatan kualitas hidup. Mungkin hanya membuat pilihan untuk belajar piano lebih mudah. Di TopTenREVIEWS Kami Melakukan Penelitian sehingga Anda Tidak Memiliki To.Hurricanes Tidak ada yang seperti badai di atmosfer. Bahkan terlihat oleh sensor di satelit ribuan mil di atas Bumi, keunikan badai kuat dan kuat ini jelas. Badai bukanlah sistem badai terbesar, atau yang paling keras sekalipun, tapi menggabungkan sifat-sifat itu karena tidak ada fenomena lain, seolah-olah dirancang untuk menjadi mesin kematian dan kehancuran. Di belahan bumi utara, badai ini disebut angin topan, sebuah istilah yang menggemakan kata-kata kolonial Spanyol dan Karibia India untuk roh jahat dan angin kencang. Badai adalah produk dari samudera dan atmosfer tropis: didukung oleh panas dari laut, didorong oleh perdagangan timur dan dataran rendah, dan didorong oleh energi sengit mereka sendiri. Di sekitar inti mereka yang tenang, angin bertiup dengan kecepatan mematikan dan lautan berkembang melonjak. Selain itu, saat mereka bergerak ke darat, tornado dapat turun dari gelombang petir yang mendadak. Badai, yang kurang dipahami seperti sekarang, tampaknya memiliki manfaat tunggal. Mereka adalah sumber hujan utama bagi sudut-sudut kontinental di mana foto Badai Diana yang tidak dapat diprediksi dari Komputer mereka, 11 September 1984. (Courtesy of National Aeronautics and Space Administrasi (NASA).) Trek membawa mereka. Sebagian besar mereka dipandang sebagai mesin tragedi, yang masih meninggalkan kematian dan kehancuran di jalan mereka, walaupun efektivitas sistem peringatan telah berlipat ganda dan berlipat ganda dalam beberapa dekade terakhir. HURRICANE DAN TROPICAL STORM MUSIM Ini adalah musim panas yang akan datang ke Belahan Bumi Utara yang menyertai kondisi yang menelurkan badai tropis dan angin topan. Pergerakan sinar matahari yang sebenarnya bukan gerakan tentu saja, tapi pergeseran posisi relatif terhadap Bumi yang disebabkan oleh orbit planetx0027 yang panjang sepanjang tahun memancarkan kekuatan puncak radiasi matahari ke utara. Jalur sunx0027 bergerak pertama ke khatulistiwa, dan dari posisi sunx0027 di atas khatulistiwa pada akhir Maret, pergerakannya yang jelas ke utara ke Tropic of Cancer pada akhir Juni, (23,5x00 B0 lintang utara), ketika mulai mundur ke selatan lagi pada bulan Juli , Dan Agustus. Di balik jalur matahari ini, laut dan udara menjadi lebih hangat, dan aliran udara kutub membuat mundur yang stabil. Pergeseran utara matahari ini membawa musim siklon tropis ke belahan bumi utara. Ini berarti saatnya untuk melihat ke laut, di sepanjang pantai kita. Ini sama benarnya dengan Asia karena untuk Amerika Serikat dan Karibia. Selama Pasifik barat, musim siklon tropis tidak pernah berakhir, namun sangat bervariasi intensitasnya. Setiap tahun, kondisi di sebelah timur Filipina mengirim skor badai keras yang melolong ke Asia, tapi terburuk dari bulan Juni sampai Oktober. Southwest Meksiko, badai Pasifik timur berkembang pada musim semi, musim panas, dan musim gugur. Sebagian besar akan mati di laut saat mereka bergerak di atas perairan laut yang lebih dingin. Tapi ada pengecualian yang merusak saat badai kadang-kadang melengkung ke Meksiko dan barat daya Amerika Serikat, membawa hujan banjir. Sepanjang pesisir Atlantik dan Teluk A.S., musim badai nominal berlangsung dari bulan Juni sampai November. Awal musim ini, Karibia barat dan Teluk Meksiko merupakan daerah asal utama. Pada bulan Juli dan Agustus, pusat pemijahan ini mulai bergeser ke timur, dan pada awal September beberapa badai terlahir sejauh timur ke Cape Verde Islands di pantai barat Afrika. Sekali lagi setelah pertengahan September, kebanyakan badai dimulai di Karibia barat dan Teluk Meksiko. Pada tahun rata-rata, lebih dari 100 gangguan dengan potensi angin topan diamati rata-rata di Atlantik, Teluk, dan Karibia, hanya 10 di antaranya mencapai tahap badai tropis, dan hanya sekitar enam yang mengalami topan. Rata-rata, dua badai ini menyerang Amerika Serikat, di mana mereka cenderung membunuh 50x2013100 orang, dari Texas sampai Maine, dan menyebabkan ratusan juta dolar dalam kerusakan properti. Pada tahun yang lebih buruk dari rata-rata, badai yang sama menyebabkan beberapa ratus kematian, dan kerusakan properti sebesar miliaran dolar. Untuk National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), musim badai berarti bahaya lain dari atmosfer, pada saat tornado, banjir, dan badai yang parah juga menimbulkan malapetaka musiman di tempat lain di benua ini. (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)). POTRET OF A HURRICANE Mengingat badai tersebut, sebagai mesin, tidak efisien dan sulit untuk dimulai dan dipertahankan, dan sebagian besar badai tropis tidak akan pernah mencapai proporsi badai, beberapa badai tropis masih terjadi. . Sejumlah tertentu setiap musim akan berhasil mengumpulkan kombinasi kompleks kekuatan alami yang dibutuhkan. Bila memang demikian, ini adalah acara alam yang luar biasa. Badai muda menimpa laut sebagai angin puyuh yang mengerikan. Angin badainya (angin yang lebih dari 63 knot) menutupi ribuan mil persegi, dan angin badai badai tropis (angin 34x201363 knot) mencakup area seluas sepuluh kali lebih besar. Seiring kontur putaran spiralnya adalah x0022rain bandx0022 awan padat dimana hujan lebat turun. Band hujan spiral ini naik di awan cumulus dan cumulonimbus x0022decksx0022 ke atmosfir atas yang tinggi. Di sana, uap air yang terkondensasi disapu bersih seperti gumpalan es kristal awan cirrus oleh angin dengan ketinggian tinggi. Kilat bersinar dalam deru terus-menerus di band hujan, dan medan berawan ini diliputi oleh turbulensi. Di bawah beberapa ribu kaki, udara mengalir menuju pusat siklon, dan berputar ke atas melalui kolom udara yang menaik di dekat pusat. Di atas 40.000 kaki, pola siklon ini digantikan oleh sirkulasi antisiklonik. Pompa tingkat tinggi yang berfungsi sebagai sistem pengeringan sinar x0022 dari mesin badai. (Sirkulasi anticyclonic berarti, di Belahan Bumi Utara, sistem angin berputar searah jarum jam tentang pusat tekanan barometrik yang relatif rendah. Kontras ini dengan sirkulasi x0022cyclonic, x0022 yang memiliki pola berlawanan arah jarum jam. Kedua definisi ini terbalik di Selatan Belahan Bumi.) Pada tingkat yang lebih rendah, di mana angin topan paling kencang, angin di tepi badai mengikuti pola yang lebar, seperti arus yang lebih lambat di tepi kolam pusaran seperti arus, angin ini berakselerasi saat mereka mendekati pusaran sentral. . Band dalam ini adalah lubang mata, di mana angin terburuk badai ditemukan, dan di mana udara lembab yang masuk di permukaan adalah x0022chimneyedx0022 ke atas, melepaskan panas untuk menggerakkan badai. Pada sebagian besar angin topan, angin ini melebihi 90 knotsx2014 dalam kasus ekstrim yang mungkin melipatgandakan kecepatan itu. Angin maksimum yang melaju masih lebih tinggi pada topan, versi Pasifik dari jenis badai yang sama. Angin badai dihasilkan, karena semua angin berada, dengan perbedaan tekanan atmosfir, atau kepadatan. Tekanan gradientx2014 laju perubahan tekanan dengan jarak yang dihasilkan dalam angin topan adalah gradien tekanan paling tajam di atmosfer, kecuali hanya perubahan tekanan yang diyakini ada di corong tornado yang sempit. Hurricanes dan tekanan barometrik Tekanan atmosfer populer dinyatakan sebagai ketinggian kolom merkuri yang dapat didukung oleh berat udara di atasnya pada waktu tertentu. Peta cuaca menunjukkan tekanan atmosfir di milibar (mb), unit sama dengan seperseribu bar. Bar adalah satuan ukuran yang setara dengan 29,53 merkuri dalam sistem bahasa Inggris, dan satu juta dynes per sentimeter persegi dalam sistem metrik. Di Amerika Utara, pengukuran barometrik di permukaan laut jarang berada di bawah 29 dalam merkuri, dan di daerah tropis bacaan barometer umumnya mendekati 30 dalam kondisi normal. Badai menurunkan bagian bawah kategori normal tersebut. Badai Hari Buruh yang melanda Florida Keys pada tahun 1935 mendapat tekanan sentral hanya 26,35. Badai Gilbert, yang menyebabkan kerusakan di Karibia dan Semenanjung Yucatan selama tahun 1988, diukur pada 26,22 di matanya. Dan perubahan tekanannya cepat: tekanan bisa turun satu inci penuh per mil. Tekanan tersebut kontras menjamin kecepatan angin yang luar biasa. Di tengah badai adalah entitas atmosfir yang unik, dan sebuah metafora yang terus-menerus untuk dipesan di tengah kekacauan di tengah badai. Hal itu ditemui secara tiba-tiba. Dari menara yang dipanaskan dengan angin kencang dan angin topan, satu mata menerobos, di mana angin berkurang menjadi kurang dari 15 knot. Menembus dinding seberang, tiba-tiba terjadi angin terburuk lagi. Badai dewasa mendamaikan lebih dari satu juta kilometer kubik atmosfer. Di laut dalam, ombak yang dihasilkan angin topan bisa mencapai ketinggian 50 kaki atau lebih. Di bawah pusat badai, permukaan laut ditarik ke atas seperti air dalam sedotan, membentuk gundukan 1x20133 kaki atau lebih tinggi dari permukaan laut sekitarnya. Gundukan ini bisa diterjemahkan ke dalam lonjakan pantai 20 kaki atau lebih. Selain lonjakan ini, gelombang besar membengkak keluar melalui tingkat atas laut. Badai Eloise, yang melanda panhandle Florida pada bulan September 1975, memberi tahu ilmuwan sesuatu yang baru tentang pengaruh badai yang lewat di lingkungan laut. Bathythermograph yang dapat dibuang jatuh dari pesawat riset NOAA di depan, ke dalam, dan setelah badai menunjukkan bahwa lautan terganggu sampai kedalaman ratusan kaki oleh badai yang lewat. Selain itu, samudra x0022rememberedx0022 topan badai dengan gelombang internal yang bertahan selama berminggu-minggu setelah badai berlalu. Badai yang sama juga menunjukkan bahwa badai yang lewat bisa dirasakan jauh di dasar sedimen laut. Sementara angin topan hidup, transaksi energi di dalam peredarannya sangat besar. Energi panas kondensasi yang dilepaskan oleh angin topan dalam satu hari bisa setara dengan energi yang dilepaskan oleh peleburan 400 bom hidrogen 20 megaton. Satu hari yang dilepaskan energi, diubah menjadi listrik, bisa memasok kebutuhan listrik Amerika Serikat selama sekitar enam bulan. Dorongan yang fatal terhadap tanah Sejak lahir, angin topan tinggal di lingkungan yang terus-menerus mencoba untuk membunuhnya dan akhirnya berhasil. Badai cenderung bertahan saat berada di atas air hangat namun pasukan menyetir badai ke darat atau di atas air dingin di luar daerah tropis. Di lingkungan yang tidak bergizi ini akan jatuh dan mati. Dorongan ini menjauh dari daerah tropis adalah kurva searah jarum jam yang mendorong badai Atlantik ke Amerika Serikat bagian timur, dan membawa topan Pasifik timur melintasi garis pantai Jepang dan masuk ke daratan Asia. Bahkan sebelum bentuk angin topan, badai embrio memiliki gerak maju, umumnya didorong oleh aliran udara timur dari sistem pergerakan udara dari garis lintang tropik, yang menampilkan aliran atmosfir ke timur ke barat tempat ia disematkan. Selama drift barat ini lamban kurang dari sekitar 20 knotsx2014 badai muda bisa mengintensifkan. Gerakan maju yang lebih cepat umumnya menghambat intensifikasi pada tahap awal badai. Memasuki garis lintang sedang (utara tropika Kanker) beberapa badai mungkin bergerak lebih cepat dari pada 50 knot, tapi badai yang bergerak cepat segera melemahkan. Pada garis lintang tengah, akhir hurricanex0027s biasanya datang dengan cepat. Udara dingin menembus pusaran siklon yang inti hangatnya mendingin, dan bertindak sebagai rem termal pada intensifikasi lebih lanjut. Air di bawah 80x00B0F tidak menyumbang banyak energi untuk angin topan. Meskipun beberapa badai besar dapat berlangsung berhari-hari di atas air Atlantik Utara yang dingin, semua badai akan hancur begitu mereka meninggalkan perairan tropis yang hangat yang menopangnya. Semakin jauh mereka memasuki lintang yang lebih tinggi, semakin sedikit bahan bakar yang mereka terima dari laut, kekurangan bahan bakar ini akhirnya membunuh badai. Di darat, topan pecah dengan cepat. Potong dari sumber energi samudra mereka, dan dengan efek tambahan dari gesekan friksi, sirkulasi mereka dengan cepat melemah dan menjadi lebih tidak teratur. Hujan lebat, bagaimanapun, dapat berlanjut bahkan setelah angin jauh berkurang. Di Amerika Serikat bagian tenggara, kira-kira seperempat dari curah hujan tahunan berasal dari angin topan yang surut, dan daratan Asia dan Jepang menderita topan untuk mendapatkan air dari langit. Badai sering dibangkitkan menjadi siklon extratropis pada lintang yang lebih tinggi, atau kekuatan dinamisnya bergabung dengan gangguan zona sedang yang ada. Banyak badai yang menggerakkan pantai Atlantik kita berada dalam pergolakan transformasi ini saat mereka memasuki New England, dan dataran rendah benua yang luas sering disegarkan oleh sisa-sisa badai yang lahir di atas laut tropis. Hurricane destruction Hurricanes adalah makhluk yang tidak stabil dan tidak dapat diandalkan dalam sejarah alam planetx0027 kita. Tapi kehidupan singkat mereka di darat bisa meninggalkan bekas luka yang tak pernah bisa disembuhkan. Pada pertengahan 1970-an, tangan Camille 1969x0027 masih dapat dilihat di sepanjang Pantai Teluk Mississippi dan pemulihan dari Badai Andrew Floridax0027 pada tahun 1992 berlanjut sampai akhir 1990an. Sebagian besar pekerjaan destruktif dahsyat dilakukan oleh kenaikan umum di ketinggian laut yang menyertai badai. Kenaikan cepat seperti pasang surut di permukaan laut ini disebut gelombang badai. Angin topan merupakan kekuatan yang harus diperhitungkan oleh masyarakat pesisir yang menentukan seberapa kuat strukturnya. Saat angin meningkat, tekanan terhadap benda ditambahkan pada tingkat yang tidak proporsional. Tekanan pada dinding dipasang dengan kuadrat kecepatan angin sehingga kenaikan tiga kali lipat dalam kecepatan angin menghasilkan peningkatan tekanan sembilan kali lipat. Dengan demikian, angin 25 mph menyebabkan sekitar 1,6 pon tekanan per kaki persegi dengan kekuatan 50 lb. Dalam angin 75 mph, gaya itu menjadi 450 lb dan pada 125 mph, ia menjadi 1.250 lb. Untuk beberapa struktur, gaya ini cukup menyebabkan kegagalan. . Struktur tinggi seperti menara radio dapat dikhawatirkan akan hancur oleh angin badai yang kencang. Angin juga membawa rentetan puing yang bisa sangat berbahaya. Semua kerusakan angin tidak harus datang dari angin topan. Seiring badai bergerak shoreward, interaksi dengan sistem cuaca lainnya dapat menghasilkan tornado, yang bekerja di sekitar pinggiran badai. Meskipun tornado menetas topan bukanlah bentuk badai angin puyuh yang paling keras, mereka menambahkan penghancuran. Banjir akibat curah hujan cukup merusak. Badai khas membawa hujan 6x201312 yang mengagumkan dari curah hujan berdurasi pendek ke daerah yang dilewati, dan beberapa telah membawa lebih banyak lagi. Banjir yang diakibatkannya adalah banjir bandang yang tiba-tiba telah menyebabkan kerusakan dan kehilangan nyawa, terutama di daerah pegunungan, di mana hujan deras bisa berarti banjir bandang. Hujan dari Badai Agnes yang sekarat membawa bencana banjir ke seluruh negara bagian Atlantik, menyebabkan 129 kematian dan sekitar 2,1 miliar kerusakan properti. Badai badai Badai dahsyat terburuk berasal dari laut, dalam bentuk gelombang badai. Hal ini secara halus mendekati kehancuran gelombang pasang sebenarnya mengklaim sembilan dari setiap 10 korban yang jatuh ke angin topan. Saat badai melintasi landas kontinen dan bergerak mendekati pantai, berarti permukaan air bisa naik 15 kaki atau lebih. Gelombang badai maju menggabungkan dengan gelombang astronomi normal untuk menciptakan badai badai pasang surut. Selain itu, gelombang angin setinggi 5x201310 kaki dilapiskan pada gelombang pasang. Penumpukan tingkat air ini dapat menyebabkan banjir parah di daerah pesisir. Terutama saat gelombang badai bertepatan dengan pasang surut normal. Karena sebagian besar garis pantai Amerika Serikat yang berpenduduk padat di sepanjang pantai Atlantik dan Teluk terletak kurang dari 10 kaki di atas permukaan laut rata-rata, bahaya dari gelombang badai berlipat ganda. Hampir setiap lokasi pesisir yang terkena badai juga merupakan kandidat untuk pukulan badai yang dahsyat. Aksi gelombang dan arus yang terkait dengan gelombang juga menyebabkan kerusakan yang luas. Air berbobot sekitar 1.700 pon per yard kubik yang terbebani oleh gelombang yang sering dapat menghancurkan bangunan yang tidak dirancang khusus untuk menahan kekuatan tersebut. Arus yang dipasang di sepanjang pantai oleh gradien di ketinggian gelombang badai dan angin bergabung dengan ombak hingga mengikis pantai dan jalan raya pesisir dengan parah. Banyak bangunan menahan angin topan sampai fondasi mereka, yang dirusak oleh erosi, melemah dan gagal. Gelombang badai, ombak, dan arus di pelabuhan terbatas sangat merusak kapal, marina, dan kapal kesenangan. Di daerah muara muara dan bayou, intrusi air asin membahayakan kesehatan masyarakat. KUALITAS HURRICANE Di Asia, harga dalam kehidupan yang dibayar karena angin topan sangat besar. Sampai akhir 1970, topan badai topan di sepanjang pantai yang sekarang Bangladesh membunuh ratusan ribu orang. Sebelas ribu orang tewas dalam badai yang melanda wilayah itu pada tahun 1984, dan bahkan lebih dalam badai tujuh tahun kemudian. Belahan Barat tidak mengalami kerugian yang begitu spektakuler, namun jumlah korban masih tinggi. Pada bulan Agustus 1893, gelombang badai menenggelamkan 1.000x20132.000 orang di Charleston, South Carolina. Pada bulan Oktober tahun yang sama, hampir 2.000 orang tewas di Pantai Teluk Louisiana. Lebih dari 1.800 tewas di sepanjang pantai selatan Danau Okeechobee di Florida pada tahun 1928 ketika air yang digerakkan oleh angin menyulut tanggul tanah. Kuba kehilangan lebih dari 2.000 badai pada tahun 1932. Empat ratus orang meninggal di Florida pada badai yang intens pada bulan September 1935x2014 Badai Hari Buruh yang, sampai Hugo menyerang pada tahun 1989, berbagi dengan Camille 1969x0027, perbedaan yang paling parah untuk menyerang Amerika Serikat Daratan selama tahun-tahun pencatatan. Banjir dari 1974x0027s Badai Fifi menyebabkan salah satu bencana alam terburuk di Belahan Dunia Barat, dengan sekitar 5.000 orang tewas di Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, dan Belize. BENCANA WEATHER TERBATAS NATIONx0027S Lebih dari seratus tahun yang lalu, pada tahun 1900, badai Galveston yang hebat meraung melalui kota pulau yang makmur dengan angin di atas 130 mph dan gelombang badai 15 ft. Ketika akhirnya selesai, setidaknya 3.500 rumah dan bangunan hancur dan lebih dari 8.000 orang terbunuh. Jumlah orang yang kehilangan nyawa pada hari itu, 8 September 1900, mewakili lebih dari gabungan korban jiwa akibat badai tropis dan badai yang melanda Amerika Serikat sejak saat itu. Faktanya, acara tunggal tersebut menyumbang sepertiga dari seluruh badai tropis atau badai yang terkait dengan kematian yang telah terjadi di Amerika Serikat sejak didirikan. Saffir-Simpson Skala Hurricane Semua badai berbahaya, tapi ada juga yang lebih dari yang lain. Caranya, gelombang badai, angin, dan faktor lainnya menggabungkan kekuatan destruktif dahsyat. Untuk membuat perbandingan lebih mudah dan membuat perkiraan bahaya mendekati badai yang lebih jelas pada pasukan darurat. Peramal topan badai dahsyat menggunakan skala potensi bencana, yang menyebabkan badai menjadi lima kategori. Kategori 1 adalah kategori topan minimum 5 adalah kasus terburuk. Kriteria untuk masing-masing kategori ditunjukkan di bawah ini. Ini bisa digunakan untuk memberi perkiraan potensi kerusakan properti dan banjir yang diperkirakan terjadi di sepanjang pantai dengan angin topan. Kategori Definisi dan Efek ONE Winds 74x201395 mph. Tidak ada kerusakan nyata pada struktur bangunan. Kerusakan terutama pada rumah mobil, semak belukar dan pepohonan yang tidak dipelihara. Juga, beberapa banjir jalan pesisir dan kerusakan dermaga kecil. DUA Angin 96x2013110 mph. Beberapa material atap, pintu dan jendela merusak bangunan. Kerusakan yang cukup besar pada vegetasi, rumah mobil dan dermaga. Jalur pelarian pesisir dan dataran rendah banjir dua sampai empat jam sebelum kedatangan pusat. Kerajinan kecil di jangkar yang tidak terlindungi mematahkan tambatan. TIGA Angin 111x2013130 ​​mph. Beberapa kerusakan struktural pada tempat tinggal kecil dan bangunan utilitas dengan sejumlah kecil kegagalan dinding tirai. Rumah mobil hancur. Banjir di dekat pantai menghancurkan struktur yang lebih kecil dengan struktur yang lebih besar yang rusak akibat puing-puing mengambang. Terrain terus menerus di bawah 5 kaki di atas permukaan laut (ASL) bisa tergenang di daratan sejauh 6 mil. EMPAT Angin 131x2013155 mph. Kerusakan dinding tirai yang lebih luas dengan beberapa kegagalan struktur atap yang lengkap pada tempat tinggal kecil. Erosi utama daerah pantai Kerusakan besar pada lantai bawah struktur dekat pantai. Medan yang terus menerus turun dari 10 kaki ASL mungkin tergenang, membutuhkan evakuasi besar-besaran daerah pemukiman di pedalaman sejauh 6 mil. LIMA Angin lebih besar dari 155 mph. Kerusakan atap lengkap pada banyak tempat tinggal dan bangunan industri. Beberapa kegagalan bangunan lengkap dengan bangunan utilitas kecil tertiup ke atas atau ke belakang. Kerusakan utama pada lantai bawah semua struktur terletak kurang dari 15 kaki ASL dan dalam jarak 500 tahun dari garis pantai. Evakuasi besar-besaran daerah pemukiman di dataran rendah dalam jarak 10 mil dari garis pantai mungkin diperlukan. Karena komunikasi antar-kapal ke darat tidak tersedia pada tahun 1900, informasi sangat samar dan hanya ada sedikit pengetahuan bahwa badai tersebut sedang menguat dan menuju ke arah Texas meskipun bendera peringatan badai diajukan di atas gedung Biro Cuaca pada tanggal 7 September. , Sehari sebelum badai melanda. Dr. Isaac Cline, Pengelola Biro Cuaca Galvestonx0027, menyadari adanya badai saat melewati Kuba pada posisi terkuatnya, angin Diana mencapai 130 mph. (Courtesy of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)). Jalur utara. Cline berpatroli di pantai dan memperingatkan orang untuk pindah ke tempat yang lebih tinggi. Dengan populasi lebih dari 35.000 orang, kemungkinan lebih banyak lagi penduduk Galveston yang meninggal tanpa peringatan. Pada tahun 1900, titik tertinggi di Galveston hanya 8,7 kaki di atas permukaan laut dan angin ribut dengan mudah membanjiri kota dengan gelombang badai 15 kaki. Dengan kenangan mengerikan tentang badai tahun 1900, orang-orang Galveston memulai usaha yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya untuk Lindungi kota mereka dari yang pertama kali. Pada tahun 1902, mereka mulai membangun dinding setinggi 16 kaki setinggi 17 kaki yang meliputi 3 mi pantai lautan. Mereka juga memulai tugas monumental untuk meningkatkan seluruh pulau sebanyak 8 kaki dengan pasir yang dikeruk dari Teluk Galveston. Dinding laut Todayx0027 telah diperpanjang hingga panjang 10 mi pantai lautan untuk melindungi jantung kota. Di Amerika Serikat, korban tewas topan telah sangat berkurang dengan peringatan dini menjelang badai. Namun kerusakan pada properti tetap terus meningkat. Camille, pada tahun 1969, menyebabkan sekitar 1,42 miliar kerusakan properti. Banjir dari Agnes pada tahun 1972 menghabiskan biaya sekitar 2,1 miliar dan kerusakan dari Frederic pada tahun 1979 mencapai 2,3 miliar. Hugo, pada tahun 1989, menghasilkan kerusakan lebih dari 7 miliar saat mendarat di darat sebagai badai skala penuh di Carina South Carolina dan bergerak sejauh ratusan mil ke daratan sebagai badai badai yang sangat dahsyat. NAMA STORMHURRICANE TROPIS Pusat Badai Nasional (NHC, Pusat Prediksi Tropis) di dekat Miami, Florida, terus-menerus mengamati daerah berkembang biak laut untuk menimbulkan gangguan tropis yang dapat memicu terjadinya badai. Jika gangguan meningkat menjadi badai tropis dengan sirkulasi putar dan kecepatan angin yang bertahan di atas 38 mph, Pusat akan memberi nama badai. Gangguan tropis mungkin tidak akan pernah mencapai intensitas angin topan, namun demikian diberi nama untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan hal itu. Pengalaman menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan nama singkat dan khas dalam tulisan, dan juga komunikasi lisan, lebih cepat, dan kurang mudah dikenali daripada metode identifikasi lintang-bujur yang lebih rumit. Hal ini sangat penting dalam pertukaran informasi badai yang terperinci antara ratusan stasiun yang tersebar luas, bandara, pangkalan pantai, dan kapal laut. Enam daftar nama alfabetis yang terpisah (dengan nama pria dan wanita bergantian setiap tahun) telah ditetapkan dalam Nama Topan Tropis Sedunia (Chart oleh GGS Gale Group.) Selama periode enam tahun untuk menentukan badai dan badai tropis. Badai tropis atau badai pertama tahun ini diberi nama alfabet pertama dari himpunan tahun itu. Setelah semua perangkat digunakan, mereka akan digunakan lagi. Set tahun 2002, misalnya, adalah himpunan yang sama yang digunakan untuk menamai badai pada tahun 1996. Huruf Q, U, X, Y, dan Z tidak disertakan karena kelangkaan nama yang diawali dengan huruf-huruf tersebut. Selanjutnya, jika terjadi badai yang menerjang badai ekonomi atau bencana manusia, nama badai sudah pensiun. Jika lebih dari 24 siklon tropis terjadi dalam setahun, abjad Yunani digunakan. Daftar nama memiliki rasa internasional karena badai mempengaruhi negara lain dan dilacak oleh negara-negara selain Amerika Serikat. Nama untuk daftar ini dipilih dari sumber perpustakaan dan disepakati oleh negara-negara yang terlibat dalam pertemuan internasional Organisasi Meteorologi Dunia (WMO). Masalah untuk peramal topan A.S. Populasi tetap dari wilayah pesisir yang rawan badai di Amerika Serikat terus tumbuh dengan pesat. Ketika populasi akhir pekan, musiman, dan liburan dipertimbangkan, jumlah orang di pulau penghalang seperti di Ocean City, Maryland Gulf Shores, Alabama dan Padre Island, Texas, meningkat 10 sampai 100 kali lipat atau lebih. Juga, daerah-daerah ini tunduk pada genangan air dari genangan air yang meningkat dengan cepat dan gelombang badai yang terkait dengan angin topan yang umumnya mengakibatkan kerusakan akibat bencana dan kehilangan nyawa yang berpotensi besar. Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, sistem peringatan telah memberikan waktu yang cukup bagi sebagian besar masyarakat di pulau-pulau penghalang dan di sepanjang pantai untuk bergerak ke daratan ketika badai telah mengancam. Namun, menjadi semakin sulit setiap tahun untuk mengevakuasi orang-orang dari daerah ini karena sistem jalan yang belum sesuai dengan pertumbuhan populasi yang cepat. Kondisi ini berakibat pada waktu tunggu yang lebih lama dan lebih lama untuk evakuasi yang aman. Sayangnya, ramalan yang diperluas ini mengalami ketidakpastian yang meningkat. Selanjutnya, tingkat perbaikan dalam keterampilan ramalan telah jauh melampaui tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk di daerah yang rentan terhadap angin topan. Kombinasi populasi yang tumbuh di pulau-pulau penghalang dan lokasi rentan lainnya, dan ketidakpastian dalam prakiraan tersebut menimbulkan dilema utama bagi peramal dan pejabat manajemen darurat negara dan daerah, misalnya, bagaimana mencegah kepuasan diri yang disebabkan oleh x0022 alarm yang salah dan belum memberikan peringatan yang memadai waktu. Persiapan untuk angin topan mahal harganya. Ketika badai diperkirakan bergerak ke daratan di jalan yang hampir normal ke pantai, area yang diberi peringatan sekitar 300 mil panjangnya. Biaya rata-rata persiapan, apakah badai menyerang atau tidak, lebih dari 50 juta untuk Gulf Coast. Perkiraan ini mencakup biaya menaiki rumah, menutup bisnis dan pabrik, mengevakuasi minyak goreng, dan lain-lain. Ini tidak termasuk kerugian ekonomi akibat terganggunya kegiatan perdagangan seperti penjualan, pemesanan barang yang dibatalkan, dll. Di beberapa lokasi, kerugian Untuk akhir pekan Hari Buruh saja dapat menjadi bagian besar dari pendapatan tahunan bisnis pesisir, misalnya, kerugian yang dialami sepanjang panhandle Florida selama Badai Elena pada tahun 1985. Nama Pasifik Utara Bagian Utara (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) .) If the width of the warned area has to be increased by 20 because of greater uncertainties in the forecast, the additional cost for each would be 10 million. If uncertainties in the hurricane strength require warning for the next higher category of hurricane, then major increases in the number of people evacuated and preparation costs would be required. Of course, if these uncertainties meant that major metropolitan areas such as GalvestonHouston, New Orleans, Tampa, Miami, or a number of other major coastal cities would or would not be included in the warning area, then the differences in preparation costs would be substantially more than the 10 million. Also, the number of people evacuated would be substantially more than tens of thousands of people. For instance, in the case of the GalvestonHouston area, an increase in storm strength from a category 2 hurricane to a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale would require the evacuation of an additional 200,000 people. Likewise, if major industrial areas such as BeaumontPort Arthur, Texas, or tourist areas such as Atlantic City, New Jersey, were affected by these uncertainties, the financial impact would be quite significant. Economic factors receive serious consideration from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and local and state officials consider not only direct, but also indirect effects, on peoplex0027s response. People will not continually take expensive actions that, afterwards, prove to have been unnecessary. If we consistently overwarn by wide margins, people will not respond and such actions could result in large loss of life. To maintain credibility with the general public, NHC and local and state officials cannot treat all hurricanes as if they were Camilles, Hugos, or Andrews. Such an exaggerated approach may indeed provide maximum protection of life for a given event, but it endangers many more lives the next time when the threat may be even greater. Finally, the hurricane problem is compounded by the fact that 80x201390 of the people who now live in the hurricaneprone areas have never experienced the core of a major hurricane (a category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). Many of these people have been through weaker hurricanes or been brushed by the fringe of a major hurricane. The result is a false impression of the damage potential of these storms. This frequently breeds complacency and delayed action that could result in the loss of many lives. For example, people living on barrier islands might be reluctant to evacuate under x0022blue skyx0022 conditions until they actually see the threat (water rising and winds increasing). The result could be people trapped in those areas as water cuts off escape routes. This situation nearly happened for about 200 people on western Galveston Island during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. This type of response primarily results from three major factors. First, major hurricanes are infrequent events for any given location. Second, for the past three decades, major hurricanes striking the United States coast have been less frequent than previous decades, although that rate appears to be rising. Finally, it has been during this period of low hurricane activity that the great majority of the present coastal residents moved to the coast. However, with the tremendous increase of populations in high-risk areas along our coastlines, the concern is that we may now not fare as well in the future when hurricane activity inevitably returns to the frequencies experienced during the 1940sx201360s. Hurricane Hugo, 1989 Hurricane Hugo, crossing the coast of South Carolina on September 21, 1989, at that point, was the strongest storm to strike the United States since Camille pounded the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts in 1969. At one point east of Guadeloupe, a NOAA research aircraft measured winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 27.1 in, which rated Hugo as a category 5 stormx2014the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It was somewhat less fierce when it reached the United States mainland. When Hugo struck the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Carolinas, it was classified as a category 4 hurricane. Storm tides of approximately 20 ft were experienced along part of the South Carolina coast, constituting record stormtide heights for the U.S. East Coast. Although the highest surges struck sparsely populated areas north of Charleston, South Carolina, damage was extensive and lives were lost. Forty-nine fatalities directly related to the storm were recorded 26 in the United States and its Caribbean Islands, and 23 on other Leeward Islands. It is estimated that Hugo caused more than 9 billion in damage. The mainland of the United States alone accounted for 7 billion. Hurricane Andrew, 1992 Hurricane Andrew slammed into heavily populated south Florida as the most destructive storm in U.S. history. Andrew formed as a tropical wave off the African coast on August 14, 1992 by August 22, it was classified as a tropical storm. As it neared the Bahamas and Florida on August 23, Andrew had reached hurricane intensity. Andrew annihilated homes and businesses along a 30-mi path through the Dade County, Florida, towns of Homestead, Leisure City, Goulds, Princeton, Naranja, and Florida City. When it was over, more than 60,000 homes were destroyed and 200,000 people were left homeless. Andrew had a central pressure of 922 millibars (mb) at landfall making it among the three most intense hurricanes of the twentieth century. Only the infamous Labor Day hurricane that struck the Florida Keys in 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969 along the MississippiLouisiana coasts were as strong. Damage estimates have been as high as 25 billion. Fifteen people died in Florida as a direct result of Andrewx0027s fury. Another 29 lives were lost as a result of indirect effects of the hurricane within the next three weeks. The relatively low loss of life, compared to the hundreds that died in the 1935 storm and in Camille, stands as a testimony to the success and importance of hurricane awareness campaigns, preparedness planning, and actions by the joint efforts of federal, state, county, and city emergency forces. The news media played a major role in the life-saving actions before, during, and after Andrew hit. As Andrew came ashore first in the northwest Bahamas, the storm surge reached an astonishing 23 ft. In Florida, a 17-ft storm tide, which headed inland from Biscayne Bay, is a record for the southeast Florida peninsula. Storm tides of more than 7 ft in Louisiana also caused severe flooding. Evacuation from threatened coastal areas is the only defense from the storm surgex0027s potential for death and destruction. After the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued hurricane watches and warnings, massive evacuations were ordered in Florida and Louisiana by emergency management officials. It is estimated that more than two million people evacuated to safety in Florida and Louisiana as Andrew approached. AFTER 10 YEARS, HURRICANE ANDREW GAINS STRENGTH In the record books, itx0027s still one of Americax0027s costliest hurricanes, and today National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists announced Hurricane Andrew was even stronger than originally believed when it made landfall in south Florida 10 years ago. Based on new research, scientists upgraded the storm from a Category 4, to a Category 5, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. In their re-analysis of Hurricane Andrewx0027s maximum sustained surface-wind speeds, NOAAx0027s National Hurricane Center Best Track Committee, a team of hurricane experts, concluded winds were 165 mphx201420 mph faster than earlier estimatedx2014as the storm made landfall. Herbert Saffir, a structural engineer who co-designed the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, joined the committee as an observer and reviewed the teamx0027s results. The upgrade makes Andrew only the third Category 5 (wind speeds greater than 155 mph) hurricane on record to strike the continental United States. The other two Category 5 storms were the x0022Florida Keys 1935 Hurricane,x0022 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. There is always some uncertainty in determining the maximum winds in a hurricane, and Andrew is no exception. The NHCx0027s previous estimate was 145 mph, based on the science available in 1992. With advanced research techniques and technology, NHC now estimates the winds were stronger. Hurricane Hugo prepares to strike Charleston, South Carolina, in 1989. (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS).) Hurricane Andrewx0027s path of destruction, August 1992. (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS).) Andrew was directly responsible for 23 fatalities in Florida and Louisiana, and about 25 billion in damages (1992 dollars), according to NOAA. The National Hurricane Center has had an ongoing program to review the historical record of all storms. Scientists and other researchers note that society needs an accurate account of the frequency and intensity of past catastrophic events to best plan for the future. The Best Track Committee at the NHC recently completed a review of a re-analysis of storms from 1851 to 1910. Since 1997, forecasters have used Global Positioning System dropwindsondes, a measuring device dropped from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft into the eyewallx2014the windiest part of the hurricane. The sonde system measures temperature, barometric pressure, water vapor, and wind data every 15 feet on its way down. This new method gave meteorologists an important glimpse into the true strength of these devastating storms. The analyses of the dropwindsonde data indicated that, on average, the maximum sustained surface-wind speed was about 90 percent of the wind speed measured at the 10,000-foot aircraft level flown as Andrew approached south Florida. In 1992 Andrewx0027s wind speed was estimated at 75 to 80 percent of the aircraft observations. The research findings resulted in an increase in the estimated wind speeds of Hurricane Andrew from 145 mph to 165 mph. Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 over open water on approach to South Florida. Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale at time of landfall, with Category 5 winds occurring in a small area on the immediate coast having open exposure to Biscayne Bay. Winds at specific locations over land in Miami-Dade County are unknown due to remaining scientific uncertainties. There should be continuing research aimed at better determining hurricane winds immediately preceding, and during landfall. The x0022Hurricane Landfallx0022 component of the U.S. Weather Research Program is structured to address such a question. When Hurricane Andrew hit southeast Miami-Dade County, Florida, August 24, 1992, flying debris in the stormx0027s winds knocked out most ground-based wind measuring instruments, and widespread power outages caused electric-based measuring equipment to fail. The winds were so strong many wind-measuring tools were incapable of registering the maximum winds. Surviving wind observations and measurements from aircraft reconnaissance, surface pressure, satellite analysis, radar, distribution of debris, and structural failures were used to estimate the surface winds. Hurricane Fran, 1996 Fran was a Cape Verde hurricane that started as a tropical wave off the African west coast on August 22, 1996. The wave escalated to a tropical storm on August 27 (about 900 mi east of the Lesser Antilles), and finally made landfall on the North Carolina coast as a category 3 hurricane on September 6. At its peak, Franx0027s minimum central pressure dropped to 946 mb and sustained surface winds reached 105 knots (on September 5) at landfall the minimum central pressure hit 954 mb and winds were approximately 100 knots. Fran eventually weakened to below-hurricane levels as it moved through Virginia and up through the eastern Great Lakes where it became extratropical. Hitting at the peak of hurricane season, Franx0027s strength resulted in major storm surge flooding in the North Carolina coastal area, wind damage in North Carolina and Virginia, and significant flooding up through Pennsylvania. Storm-surge flood levels in North Carolina (primarily southwest of Cape Lookout) are estimated to have reached 8x201312 ft some outside water and debris marks are higher, due to breaking waves. And while Fran typically caused more than 6 in of rainfall in its path, up to 12 in were reported in two counties of North Carolina. Inland flooding was also extensive. In Alexandria, Virginia, for example, the Old Town historic district had to be partially evacuated as 3 ft of water covered the streets due to the rising Potomac River. The casualty and damage figures for Fran are significantly higher than for those of Bertha (July 1996). Thirty-four people died in storm-related incidents, and 21 of those reported were in North Carolina. In an effort to avoid the hazards of downed power lines, flash floods, and damaging winds, nearly a half-million people were evacuated from the North and South Carolina coasts. Franx0027s wrath wrought nearly 3.2 billion in total U.S. damage, with the bulk of that damage (about 1.275 billion) in North Carolina. THE 1998 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON The 1998 season will be remembered as being one of the deadliest in historyx2014and for having the strongest October hurricane on record. It was a very active season with 14 named tropical storms of which 10 became hurricanes. Three of these were major hurricanesx2014category three, four, and five on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The four-year period of 1995x20131998 had a total of 33 hurricanesx2014an all-time record. Tropical cyclones claimed an estimated 11,629 lives in 1998. Of that total, 11,000 were due to hurricane Mitch in Central America. Not since 1780 has an Atlantic hurricane caused so many deaths. Seven of the tropical storms and hurricanes hit the United Sates, which is more than twice the average. Total damages in the United States stands at 6.5 billion. The season started a little late, but more than made up for lost time. There were no tropical cyclones in June and the first storm of the season, tropical storm Alex, developed on July 27. Then, in a hyperactive 35-day span from August 19 to September 23, 10 named tropical cyclones formed in Octoberx2014including Lisa and powerful hurricane Mitch. The season concluded with hurricane Nicole in late November. On September 25, there were four Atlantic hurricanes in progress at once. This is the first time such an event was observed since 1893. Bonnie developed from a tropical wave over the Atlantic about 900 mi east of the Leeward Islands on August 19, and became a tropical storm a day later. It moved on a west-northwestward track, skirting the Leeward Islands. Late on August 21, the storm strengthened into a hurricane located about 200 mi north-northeast of eastern Hispaniola. Bonnie strengthened to its maximum wind speed of 115 mph late on August 23 while located about 175 mi east of San Salvador in the Bahamas. The hurricane turned toward the northwest and stayed east of the Bahamas. Bonnie then headed toward the southeast U.S. coast in the general direction of the Carolinas, gradually turning toward the north-northwest and then north. As the center neared the coast, its forward speed slowed. The eye of Bonnie passed just east of Cape Fear, North Carolina, late on August 26. Bonnie made landfall near Wilmington as a category two hurricane early on August 27. It weakened to a tropical storm while moving slowly over eastern North Carolina. As the storm moved off the coast in the vicinity of the outer banks near Kitty Hawk, it re-strengthened into a hurricane. Bonnie soon weakened back to a tropical storm as it moved northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic into cooler waters, becoming extratropical about 240 mi southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Three deaths were caused by Bonnie and the damage total is estimated to be 720 million. The tropical depression that was to become Danielle formed early on August 24 about 700 mi west of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical storm status was reached later that day. Moving west-northwestward, Danielle rapidly strengthened into a hurricane and reached the first of several peak intensities near 105 mph while centered about 1,040 mi east of the Leeward Islands. For the next several days, the hurricane continued west-northwestward, gradually slowing in forward speed. Danielle turned northwestward and northward on August 30x201331, passing about 230 mi northwest of Bermuda early on September 2, and winds at Bermuda briefly reached tropical storm force. Danielle lost tropical characteristics about 260 mi east-southeast of Cape Race late on September 3. Earl developed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on August 31. The tropical depression became a tropical storm later that day but had a poorly defined center that was difficult to track. The general motion was north and then north-eastward, becoming a hurricane located about 150 mi south-southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. After briefly reaching 100 mph winds, Earl made landfall over the Florida panhandle near Panama City as a category one hurricane early on September 3. It weakened to below hurricane strength soon after making landfall and became extratropical on September 3 while moving northeastward through Georgia. Earl was directly responsible for three deaths and the total damage estimate is 79 million. Georges formed in the far eastern Atlantic from a tropical wave early on September 15, and became a tropical storm on the morning of September 16. By late afternoon on September 17, satellite imagery indicated that Georges developed an eye and had become a hurricane. Georges moved on a general west to west-northwest course at 15x201320 mph for the next several days. During this period, Georges is estimated to have reached a peak intensity of 155 mph category 4, and a minimum central pressure of 937 mb early on September 20 while located about 420 mi east of Guadeloupe in the lesser Antilles. Georgesx0027s first of many landfalls occurred at Antigua in the Leeward Islands late on September 20. After moving near or over other islands of the northeast Caribbean, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, it then hit Puerto Rico on the evening of September 21 with estimated maximum winds of 115 mph. Georges weakened very little while over Puerto Rico and was even stronger when it made landfall in the Dominican Republic on the afternoon of September 22, with estimated maximum winds of 120 mph. Georges weakened after crossing the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and made landfall in eastern Cuba on the afternoon of September 23 with estimated maximum winds of 75 mph. The hurricane continued along the northern coast of Cuba for most of September 24. Thereafter, Georges moved into the Florida Straits early on September 25 and re-intensified making landfall near Key West, Florida, on mid-morning of September 25 with estimated maximum winds of 105 mph. Georges continued on a general west-northwest to northwest track on September 26x201327, turning to a north-northwest heading and gradually slowing down as it approached the coast of the central Gulf of Mexico. Georges made its final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, early on September 28 with 105 mph winds. Georges meandered over land and weakened to a tropical storm later that day. Georges was downgraded to a tropical depression by mid-morning on September 29 while located about 35 mi north-northeast of Mobile, Alabama. The remnant weak circulation center moved off the GeorgiaSouth Carolina coast on October 1, becoming involved with a frontal zone and dissipating. Georges caused one death and the total U.S. damage estimate is 5.1 billion. Jeanne became a tropical storm unusually far to the east, close to the west coast of Africa early on September 21 and intensified into a hurricane the following day. It brushed the Cape Verde Islands while moving west-northwestward for a couple of days, reaching a peak intensity of 105 mph on September 24 about 650 mi west of those islands. The hurricane turned toward the north over the east-central Atlantic late on September 26, then toward the northeast and east-northeast. Jeanne weakened to a tropical storm on September 29, then dropped below storm strength in the vicinity of the Azores and lost its tropical characteristics late on September 30. Mitch: The Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane Since 1780 In an awesome display of power and destruction, hurricane Mitch will be remembered as the most deadly hurricane to strike the Western Hemisphere in the last two centuries Not since the Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed approximately 22,000 people in the eastern Caribbean, was there a more deadly hurricane. Mitch struck Central America with such viciousness that it was nearly a week before the magnitude of the disaster began to reach the outside world. The death toll has been reported as 11,000 with thousands of others missing. Though the final death toll will never be known, it is quite likely that Mitch directly killed more people than any Atlantic hurricane in over 200 years. More than three million people were either homeless or severely affected. In this extremely poor third world region of the globe, estimates of the total damage from the storm are at 5 billion and rising. The President of Honduras, Carlos Flores Facusse, claimed the storm destroyed 50 years of progress. A Category 5 Monster Within four days of its birth as a tropical depression on October 22, 1998, Mitch had grown into a category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. By 2100 UTC on October 26, the monster storm had deepened to a pressure of 905 mb with sustained winds of 180 mph (155 knots) and gusts well over 200 mph Mitch thus became tied for the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record based upon barometric pressure values. Though the pressure began rising six hours later, Mitch remained at category 5 status for a continuous period of 33 hoursx2014the longest continuous period for a category 5 storm since the 36 consecutive hours by hurricane David in 1979. In addition, Mitch maintained sustained winds 155 knots for 15 hoursx2014the third longest period of such winds on record after the continuous 18 hours of 155 knot winds or higher by Hurricane Camille in 1969 and Hurricane Dog in 1950. Though exact comparisons are suspect due to differing frequencies of observation times (3-hourly versus 6-hourly observations) and a bias in earlier years toward higher estimated wind speeds, it is quite apparent Hurricane Mitch (October 1998), a category 5 storm, was the deadliest hurricane since 1780. (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).) that Mitch was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. Assault on Central America After threatening Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Mitch moved westward and by 2100 UTC on October 27, the category 5 storm was about 60 mi north of Trujillo on the north coast of Honduras. Preliminary wave height estimates north of Honduras during this time at the height of the hurricane are as high as 44 ft, according to one wave model. Although its ferocious winds began to abate slowly, it took Mitch two days to drift southward to make a landfall. Coastal regions and the offshore Honduras island of Guanaja were devastated. Mitch then began a slow westward drift through the mountainous interior of Honduras, finally reaching the border with Guatemala two days later on October 31. Although the ferocity of the winds decreased during the westward drift, the storm produced enormous amounts of precipitation caused in part by the mountains of Central America. As Mitchx0027s feeder bands swirled into its center from both the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean to its south, the stage was set for a disaster of epic proportions. Taking into account the orographic effects by the volcanic peaks of Central America and Mitchx0027s slow movement, rain fell at the rate of 1x20132 ft per day in many of the mountainous regions. Total rainfall has been reported as high as 75 in for the entire storm. The resulting floods and mudslides virtually destroyed the entire infrastructure of Honduras and devastated parts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, Belize, and El Salvador. Whole villages and their inhabitants were swept away in the torrents of floodwaters and deep mud that came rushing down the mountainsides. Hundreds of thousands of homes were destroyed. Re-birth and Florida landfall The remnants of Mitch drifted northwestward as a weak depression and entered the Bay of Campeche on November 2. Over the warm waters and favorable conditions aloft, Mitch once more regained tropical storm status and began moving rapidly northeastward. It struck the western side of Mexicox0027s Yucatan Peninsula, which weakened it to tropical depression status once again. As Mitch moved back over the Gulf of Mexico, it regained tropical storm status for the third time. It raced northeastward and pounded Key West with tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains on November 4x20135. Some of the roofs and buildings damaged by Hurricane Georges in September fell victim to Mitch. Rains of 6x20138 in were common in southern Florida and several tornadoes (Courtesy of National Hurricane CenterTropical Prediction CenterNOAA.) struck the region. At least seven were injured when a tornado swept from Marathon to Key Largo. A second tornado touched down at Miramar, north of Miami. At Fowey Rocks Lighthouse, just southeast of Miami, a wind gust of 73 mph was reported. Across south Florida, some 100,000 customers lost electrical power. One person was killed in the United States near Dry Tortugas when a fisherman died from a capsized boat. A second person was missing. Another person died as a result of an auto accident on a slick highway. Mitch passed through the Bahamas and finally became extratropical on November 5. NOTABLE TROPICAL CYCLONES OF 1999 The 1999 Atlantic hurricane season produced the most deadly hurricane to hit the United States in 28 years, Floyd, which killed 56 people. Three hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland, Bret, Floyd, and Irene, as category 3, 2, and 1 hurricanes, respectively. Hurricane Dennis produced near-hurricane conditions as it moved along the North Carolina coast but made landfall as a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Harvey also made landfall in the United States. The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced Hurricane Lenny. In all, there were four tropical storms, and eight hurricanes during 1999, and five reached intense hurricane status. Four tropical storms were consistent with long term average (1950x201398), the eight hurricanes were above the long-term average of six per season. Only one system during the 1999 season developed prior to August 18, and four systems developed after October 12. Three of these late-season storms became hurricanes, with the last (Hurricane Lenny) reaching category 4 status. Lenny developed in mid-November and moved eastward across the central Caribbean Sea. This unusual track enabled it to become the first hurricane to strike the Lesser Antilles Islands from the west. Hurricane Bret made landfall August 22, on Padre Island in sparsely populated Kenedy County (population under 500 people, about 60,000 cattle) in Texas, about halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Bret was only the sixteenth category 4 storm to ever hit the United States and the fourth category 4 storm to ever hit the Texas coast. Bret drifted westward dumping copious rainfall over south Texas, with over 20 in estimated by NEXRAD radar over a (Courtesy of National Hurricane CenterTropical Prediction CenterNOAA.) portion of Kenedy County. This region had been spared a land-falling hurricane in recent years, as the last hurricane to hit the Texas coast was Jerry in October, 1989. Hurricane Dennis threatened the North Carolina coast, the fourth tropical storm scare in as many years, during August 29x201330. The center of Dennis was within 60 mi of the North Carolina coast early on August 30 as a strong category 2 hurricane with highest sustained winds of 105 mph. Due to the fact that the hurricane never made landfall, damage was only moderate. Rainfall amounts approached 10 in in coastal southeastern North Carolina, and beach erosion was substantial. Four people were killed in Florida due to high surf, and a tornado in Hampton, Virginia, produced several serious injuries. Hurricane Floyd brought flooding rains, high winds, and rough seas along a good portion of the Atlantic seaboard on September 14x201318. The greatest damages were along the eastern Carolinas northeast into New Jersey, and adjacent areas northeastward along the East Coast into Maine. Several states had numerous counties declared disaster areas. Flooding caused major problems across the region, and at least 77 deaths were reportedx201457 directly related to the hurricane. Damage estimates range from three to over six billion dollars. Although Hurricane Floyd reached category 4 intensity in the Bahamas, it weakened to category 2 intensity at landfall in North Carolina. Floydx0027s large size was a greater problem than its winds, as the heavy rainfall covered a larger area and lasted longer than with a typical category 2 hurricane. Approximately 2.6 million people evacuated their homes in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinasx2014the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history. Ten states were declared major disaster areas as a result of Floyd, including Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia. There were several reports from the Bahamas area northward of wave heights exceeding 50 feet. The maximum storm surge was estimated to be 10.3 ft on Mason-borough Island in New Hanover County, North Carolina. Hurricane Irene brought heavy rains to the Florida Keys northward to central Virginia during the middle of October. Some places in eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia received over 12 in of additional rains, adding to the flooding problems. Eight people were killed from electrocution and drowning. Hurricane Floyd, September 1999. (Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).) Hurricane Lenny, a very unusual west-to-east moving low latitude hurricane, battered portions of the Caribbean around mid-November. Lenny was a strong category 4 hurricane on November 17 with winds of 150 mph sustained and an estimated central pressure of 929 mb. Lenny was the second strongest storm of the twentieth century to hit the Virgin Islands, second only to Hurricane David in 1979. Lenny as of November 17 was slightly stronger than Hugo at landfall in South Carolina in 1989. Hurricane Lenny was responsible for 15 deaths directly associated with the storm, including three deaths in Dutch St. Maarten, two in Colombia, five in Guadeloupe, one in Martinique, and four offshore. NOTABLE TROPICAL CYCLONES OF 2000 The above-average 2000 Atlantic hurricane season continued the recent upturn in activity, but the United States was spared extensive hurricane damage. This was the third consecutive year of above-average activity. NOAA says that the increased activity was likely an indication that global climate variations on decadal time scales are again favoring more active Atlantic hurricane seasons. NOAA researchers are studying the decadal cycles and how storm paths this year may have been affected by a Bermuda high pressure system made weak without the influence of El Nix00F1o or La Nix00F1a. There were 14 named storms in 2000, including eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The current long-term averages are 9.3 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes and 2.2 intense storms. Only two named storms hit the mainland, both in Florida. Hurricane Gordon weakened into a tropical storm when it hit land September 17, and Helene came ashore as a weak tropical storm September 23. This is the first time since 1994 that the U.S. mainland was spared a landfall storm of hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall 150 mi south of Brownsville, Texas on August 14. Moisture from Beryl moved northward along the south Texas coast and brought 0.79 in of rain to Corpus Christi on August 15. HurricaneTropical Storm Debby weakened as it moved across the Caribbean and was downgraded to a trough or open wave and then dissipated on August 24. Tropical StormHurricane Gordon brought heavy rains and isolated tornadoes to Florida on Sunday, September 17. It became extratropical on September 18, but brought heavy rains across parts of Georgia and the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. The storm had dumped over 8 in of rain in Seabring, Florida, in the central part of the state. Gordon killed 23 people in Guatemala. Hurricane Keith pounded much of Central America on October 2 with heavy rain and high winds. On October 2, Keithx0027s center was located about 45 mi east of Belize City, Belize, and about 70 mi south-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. With its slow motion, Keith was expected to dump as much as 20 in of rainfall on some parts of Central America. Keith killed 19 people in Belize, and caused 200 million in damages in the region. Tropical weather systems do not have to reach the level of a hurricane to wreck havoc. Even before it became Tropical Storm Leslie, this system dropped 18 in of rain in south Florida, and caused massive urban flooding and 700 million in total damage. The United States recorded only modest tropical storm-damage and flooding in 2000 because none of the hurricanes made landfall. NOTABLE TROPICAL CYCLONES OF 2001 For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico The 2001 hurricane season was an active one. There were 15 named storms of which 9 became hurricanes. Four of these became major hurricanesx2014Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The long-term averages are 10 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The bulk of the activity occurred during the last 3 months of the season, during which 11 of the named storms, and all of the major hurricanes, formed. There were 3 hurricanes during November, which was the first such occurrence on record. Two major hurricanesx2014Iris and Michellex2014struck land areas around the Caribbean, causing 48 deaths. Michelle also caused significant damage in the Bahamas. For the second consecutive year there were no U.S. hurricane landfalls, though 2 of the 3 tropical storms that hit the U.S. were almost hurricanes, and the third, Allison, caused enormous flooding, resulting in 41 deaths and billions of dollars in damage. There were 2 tropical depressions that did not become tropical storms. Allison developed from a disturbance that moved from the eastern Pacific into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. On June 4, thunderstorms increased over the western Gulf, and on the morning of the 5th the system quickly developed into a tropical storm. Allison strengthened to a peak intensity of 60 mph on the afternoon of the 5th before moving inland over southeast Texas with 50 mph winds a few hours later. After moving inland, Allison rapidly weakened before stalling over eastern Texas on June 7. The remnant circulation drifted southward and emerged over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on the 9th, where the system reorganized as a subtropical cyclone before moving inland again over Louisiana early on the 11th. The subtropical low tracked east-northeastward before stalling over eastern North Carolina on the 14th. The low was nearly stationary for almost three days before finally moving northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast on the 17th. The subtropical cyclone merged with a cold front on the 17th and dissipated on the 19th southeast of Nova Scotia. Allison produced extremely heavy rainfall from eastern Texas across the Gulf states and along the Mid-Atlantic coast, resulting in the most extensive flooding ever associated with a tropical storm. Damage estimates are 5.0 billion or more, and there were 41 direct deaths. Much of the damage and fatalities occurred in the Houston Metropolitan area, where more than 30 inches of rain were reported at several locations. The preliminary death toll by states is as follows: Texas 23, Florida 8, Pennsylvania 7, Louisiana 1, Mississippi 1, and Virginia 1. Michelle started as a broad low-pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It developed into a tropical depression on October 29 along the east coast of Nicaragua. The depression remained nearly stationary over northeastern Nicaragua for two days, producing extremely heavy rains with flooding over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Late on the 31st the depression moved into the northwestern Caribbean Sea just north of the Honduras-Nicaragua border and strengthened into Tropical Storm Michelle. Michelle moved slowly north-northwestward for the next two days as it strengthened into a hurricane. The hurricane turned slowly northward on the 3rd, then turned northeastward on the 4th as it reached a peak intensity of 140 mph. Later that day Michelle crossed the coastal islands of Cuba as a Category-4 hurricane, then it crossed the coast of the main island of Cuba as a Category-3 hurricane. A weakening Michelle continued northeastward through the Bahamas on the 5th, and the storm became extratropical over the southwestern Atlantic on the 6th. Michelle left a trail of damage and death from central America to the Bahamas. So far 17 deaths are associated with the hurricane, including 6 in Honduras, 5 in Cuba, 4 in Nicaragua, and 2 in Jamaica. Michelle was the strongest hurricane to hit Cuba since 1952 and caused widespread damage over central and western Cuba. Additional damage was reported in the Bahamas. Widespread heavy rains over Central America and the northwest Caribbean caused extensive flooding and mud slides in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Jamaica. Minor damage was reported in the Cayman Islands and South Florida. Five or more major hurricanes occurred three times in the 90x0027s 1995, 1996, and 1999. (A major hurricane is defined as category 3 or higher according to the Saffir-Simpson scale. A category 3 hurricane has winds of 111 to 130 mph.) Prior to 1995, five or more major Atlantic hurricanes had not occurred in one season since 1964. A new record number of hurricanes for November was set in 2001 as Michelle, Noel, and Olga all were active in the Atlantic Basin during the month. The contiguous U.S. has not been hit directly by a hurricane now for the past two years, although tropical storms have caused significant damage, as evidenced by Tropical Storm Allison. This storm, the costliest tropical storm on record (5 billion in damage), caused severe flooding in Texas and Louisiana before moving across the Southeast and up the East Coast. NOTABLE TROPICAL CYCLONES OF 2002 The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was again an active one, making it the 5th consecutive active season. There were 12 named storms, compared to a 1944x20131996 annual average of 9.8. Four of those named storms became hurricanes, of which 2 were classified as major. This compares to an average of 5.8 hurricanes a year, 2.5 of which are major based on a 53-year average. There were 2 additional tropical depressions. So there were more named tropical cyclones than the long-term mean, but fewer strong storms. The season was also slow to begin, extremely active in September, and less active than average at its end. Eight named systems developed in September as well as a tropical depression, making it the most active month of any month on record for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin. Seven tropical storms made landfall on the continental U.S. in 2002x2014the most since 1998, when seven was also the number of landfalling tropical systems for the U.S. Hurricane Lili was the first hurricane to hit the coast of the U.S. since Irene in October 1999. Notable tropical systems in 2002 include the intense Hurricanes Isidore and Lili in September and the long-lasting Hurricane Kyle, also in September. Kyle was the third-longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin after Ginger of 1971 and Inga of 1969. Kyle formed on September 20 and spent over 3 weeks in the North Atlantic before finally coming ashore in South Carolina on October 11. Isidore became a category-3 hurricane as it moved into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and hit the Yucatan Peninsula on September 22 at category 3 strength. After weakening over the Yucatan Peninsula, it never quite regained hurricane strength and came ashore in Louisiana as a tropical storm. Lili was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States in 2002, and did so at category 2. Lili had been a category 4 hurricane shortly before landfall and quickly weakened before reaching the west Louisiana coastline on October 3. El Nix00F1o Suppressed Hurricanes in 2002 Season The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season produced only four hurricanes due to a strengthening El Nix00F1o. However, twice the normal number of storm systems (eight) affected the nation, bringing storm surge and severe weather and rain to the nation, including Hurricane Lili, the first land-falling hurricane to strike the United States since the 1999 Hurricane Season. Overall in 2002, there were 12 named storms, of which four became hurricanes. Hurricanes Lili and Isidore were classified as major (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). Eight stormsx2014Tropical Storms Bertha, Edouard, Fay, and Hanna and Hurricanes Gustav, Isidore, Kyle, and Lilix2014affected the coastal United States. Hurricane Lili was the only storm to make landfall while still a hurricane. The other 2002 storms were: Tropical Storms Arthur, Cristobal, Dolly, and Josephine. Hurricane forecasters at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) correctly forecast that climate conditions, including the El Nix00F1o, would reduce the overall hurricane activity this season. The forecast called for seven to 10 tropical storms, of which four to six could develop into hurricanes, with one to three classified as major. Louisiana, the hardest hit area, was battered by four storms including the powerful Hurricane Lili and Tropical Storm Isidore. The 2002 seasonx0027s storms caused nine deaths in the United States and about 900 million in damages. The public relied heavily on Internet access for lifesaving information from NOAA this season. The explosive use of the Internet to convey vital information to the public in near real time has been astonishing. Between August and September the NHC web site recorded almost 500 million hits. The peak day for the season was October 3 (Hurricane Lili) when the site recorded 35.9 million hitsx2014doubling the previous record set in 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. TYPHOON PONGSONA HITS GUAM, DECEMBER 8, 2002 Guam, west of the international date line, about 3,700 miles southwest of Hawaii, was raked by wind gusts of more than 180 mph, and winds the following day of 70 mph continued in this U.S. Territory. No deaths were reported but the entire island was without electricity, and water and sewer systems were not expected to be fully operational for weeks. Sustained winds of 150 mph around the eye of Pongsona gave the storm a x0022super typhoonx0022 status. Gusts up to 184 mph were reported in some areas of Guam. A wind gust of 117 mph was clocked before the National Weather Servicex0027s sensor failed, along with the radar. A reported 2,000 homes were destroyed and many more were damaged. Schools became emergency shelters. CYCLONE ZOE STRIKES THE SOLOMON ISLANDS Southern Pacific Ocean Category-5 Cyclone Zoe struck the southernmost Solomon Islands on December 29, 2002, Hurricane Lili was the first hurricane to hit the United States in three years (Irene, October 1999). (Courtesy of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS).) and was reported to be the most powerful ever recorded in the area, with winds reaching 225 mph and produced 33 foot waves that destroyed houses, uprooted trees, and flooded entire villages. Those living on the island used common sense that had come with centuries of dealing with these storms and had taken shelter in the hills on the island. It was considered a miracle that no one was killed on Tikopia, some 1,400 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia. HURRICANE WARNING SERVICE A history of hurricane watching The hurricane forecast and warning service stands as the finest of its kind in the world, distinguished by its character, credibility, and the confidence that our nation has in it. But that was not always the case. The Weather Bureau was created as a civilian agency in 1890 mainly because of a general dissatisfaction with weather forecasting under the military. The hurricane of 1875 that destroyed Indianola, Texas, without much warning was a contributing factor. It was not until the Spanish-American War of 1898 that an effort was made to establish a comprehensive hurricane warning service. President McKinley stated that he was more afraid of a hurricane than he was of the Spanish Navy. He extended the warning service to include warnings for shipping interests as well as the military. Before that, hurricane warnings were only issued for the United States coastal areas. Hurricane warning stations were established throughout the West Indies. A forecast center was established in Kingston, Jamaica, and later moved to Havana, Cuba, in 1899. The warning service was extended to Mexico and Central America. This recognition of the international responsibility for the United States hurricane warning service continues today under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations. In 1900, the infamous Galveston, Texas, hurricane killed at least 8,000 peoplex2014the greatest natural disaster in United States history. There was no formal hurricane warning and this calamity prompted the transfer of the warning service to Washington, D.C. where it remained until 1935. In the 1920s, there were several hurricanes that hit with little or no warning, leading to dissatisfaction with the hurricane service operating out of Washington. The coastal communities felt that Washington was insensitive to the hurricane problem. In 1926, a very strong hurricane (category 4 by todayx0027s standard) brought great devastation to southeast Florida, including Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, causing more than 200 deaths. The warnings for that storm were issued at night when most residents were asleep and unaware of the rapidly approaching hurricane. In 1928, another severe hurricane hit south Florida and killed an estimated 1,800 people, who drowned when Lake Okeechobee overflowed. In 1933, the largest number of tropical stormsx201421x2014developed. Nine of them were hurricanes and two that affected the east coast of the United States, including Washington, were badly forecast and the public was inadequately warned. In 1934, a forecast and warning for an approaching hurricane in the very sensitive Galveston area was again badly flubbed by Washington. These incidents led Congress and the President to revamp and decentralize the Hurricane Warning Service. Improvements included 24-hour operations with teletypewriter hookup along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts weather observations at six hourly intervals hurricane advisories at least four times a day and a more adequate upper air observing network. New hurricane forecast centers were established at Jacksonville, Florida New Orleans, Louisiana San Juan, Puerto Rico and Boston, Massachusetts (established in 1940). In 1943, the primary hurricane forecast office at Jacksonville was moved to Miami, Florida, where the Weather Bureau established a joint hurricane warning service with the Army Air Corps and the Navy. It was also in 1943 that Col. Joseph Duckworth made the first intentional plane reconnaissance flight into the eye of a hurricane. The following year, regular aircraft reconnaissance was begun by the military, giving hurricane forecasters the location and intensity of the storms for the first time. The Miami office was officially designated as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1955. In the 1950s, a number of hurricanes, including Hazel, struck the East Coast, causing much damage and flooding. Congress responded with increased appropriations to strengthen the warning service and intensify research into hurricanes. The Weather Bureau organized the National Hurricane Research Project. The Air Force and Navy provided the first aircraft to be used by the Project to investigate the structure, characteristics, and movement of tropical storms. In 1960, radar capable of x0022seeingx0022 out to a distance of 200x2013250 mi from their coastal sites were established at strategic locations along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from Maine to Brownsville, Texas. On April 1, 1960, the first weather satellite was placed in orbit, giving hurricane forecasters the ability to detect storms before they hit land. IMPROVEMENTS IN FORECASTING Hurricane tracking x0026 preparedness The day is past when a hurricane could develop to maturity far out to sea and be unreported until it thrust toward land. The 1970x201390s have seen greater emphasis on the need for hurricane preparedness among the hurricane-prone communities in the United States, as well as in the Caribbean. The rapid development of Americax0027s coastal areas has placed millions of people with little or no hurricane experience in the path of these lethal storms. For this vulnerable coastal population, the answer must be community preparedness and public education in the hope that education and planning before the fact will save lives and lessen the impact of the hurricane and its effects. There has been increased national awareness of the hurricane threat through the cooperation of local and state emergency officials and the enlistment of the news media and other federal agencies in the campaign to substitute education and awareness for the lack of first-hand experience among the ever-increasing coastal populations. New technology and advances in the science under the weather servicex0027s modernization program now underway will lead to more improvement and effectiveness in the forecasting and warning of hurricanes. Meteorologists with NOAAx0027s National Weather Service (NWS) monitor the massive flow of data that might contain the early indications of a developing storm somewhere over the warm sea. Cloud images from Earth-orbiting satellites operated by NOAA keep Earthx0027s atmosphere under virtually continuous surveillance, night and day. Meteorological data from hundreds of surface stations, radar and balloon probes of the atmosphere, and information from hurricane-hunting aircraft are other tools of the hurricane forecaster. Long before a storm has evolved even to the point of ruffling the easterly wave, scientists at NOAAx0027s National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, have begun to watch the disturbance. In the satellite data coming in from both polar-orbiting and geostationary spacecraft, and in reports from ships and aircraft, the scientists look for subtle clues that mark the development of hurricanesx2014cumulus clouds covered by the cirrostratus deck of a highly organized convective system showers that become steady rains dropping atmospheric pressure intensification of the trade winds, or a westerly wind component there. Then, if this hint of a disturbance blooms into a tropical storm, it receives a name. Naming the storm is a signal that brings the warning systems to readiness. As an Atlantic hurricane drifts closer to land, it comes under surveillance by weather reconnaissance aircraft of the U.S. Air Force Reserve, the famous x0022Hurricane Hunters,x0022 who bump through the turbulent interiors of the storms to obtain precise fixes on the position of the eye, and measure winds and pressure fields. Despite the advent of satellites, the aircraft probes are the most detailed information hurricane forecasters receive. The hurricanes are also probed by the x0022flying laboratoriesx0022 from NOAAx0027s Aircraft Operations Center in Miami. Finally, the approaching storm comes within range of a radar network stretching from Texas to Maine, and from Miami to the Lesser Antilles. Through the lifetime of the hurricane, advisories from the NHC warning give the stormx0027s position and what the fore-casters in Miami expect the storm to do. As the hurricane drifts to within a day or two of its predicted landfall, these advisories begin to carry watch and warning messages, telling people when and where the hurricane is expected to strike, and what its effects are likely to be. Not until the storm has decayed over land and its cloud elements and great cargo of moisture have blended with other brands of weather does the hurricane emergency end. This system works well the death toll in the United States from hurricanes has dropped steadily as NOAAx0027s hurricane tracking and warning apparatus has matured. Hurricane research x0026 technology Although the accuracy of hurricane forecasts has improved over the years, any significant improvements must come from quantum leaps in scientific understanding. Terms to Know By international agreement, TROPICAL CYCLONE is the general term for all cyclone circulations originating over tropical waters, classified by form and intensity as follows: TROPICAL WAVE: A trough of low pressure in the trade-wind easterlies. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: A moving area of thunderstorms in the tropics that maintains its identity for 24 hours or more. A common phenomenon in the tropics. TROPICAL DEPRESSION: Rotary circulation at surface, highest constant wind speed 38 mph or less. TROPICAL STORM: Distinct rotary circulation, constant wind speed ranges 39x201373 mph. HURRICANE: Pronounced rotary circulation, constant wind speed of 74 mph or greater. SMALL CRAFT CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS: When a tropical cyclone threatens a coastal area, small craft operators are advised to remain in port or not to venture into the open sea. TROPICAL STORM WATCH: Is issued for a coastal area when there is the threat of tropical storm conditions within 24x201336 hours. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS: May be issued when winds of 39x201373 mph are expected. If a hurricane is expected to strike a coastal area, tropical storm warnings will not usually precede hurricane warnings. HURRICANE WATCH: Is issued for a coastal area when there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24x201336 hours. HURRICANE WARNING: Is issued when hurricane conditions are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. STORM SURGE: An abnormal rise of the sea along a shore as the result, primarily, of the winds of a storm. FLASH-FLOOD WATCH: Means a flash flood is possible in the area stay alert. FLASH-FLOOD WARNING: Means a flash flood is imminent take immediate action. In NOAAx0027s Environmental Research Laboratories, scientists follow eagerly as nature furnishes additional specimens of the great stormsx2014specimens they can probe and analyze to gather ever-greater understanding of the mechanics of the storms. Such analyses assist the forecasters with their warnings. The GOES-10 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) series of satellites has provided more accurate and higher-resolution sounding data than provided from geosynchronous satellites, and similar improvements can be expected from the polar orbit satellite systems. Major improvements in longer-range hurricane forecasts (36x201372 hours) will come through improved dynamical models. Global, hemispheric, and regional models show considerable promise. Present operational reconnaissance aircraft provide invaluable data in the core of the hurricane. Doppler radar is now an integral part of NOAAx0027s research aircraft operations, providing entire data fields within several miles of the aircraftx0027s path. Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD), also known as WSR-88D, has added new dimensions to hurricane warning capabilities. The NEXRAD stations use Doppler radar technology to provide much-needed information on tropical cyclone wind fields and the wind fieldsx0027 changes as they move inland. Local offices are able to provide accurate short-term warnings as rain bands, high winds, and possible tornadoes move toward specific inland locations. Heavy rains and flooding frequently occur over widespread inland areas. Improved observing systems and anticipated improvements in analysis, forecasting, and warning programs require efficient accessing, processing, and analysis of large quantities of data from numerous sources. These data also provide the opportunity for improved numerical forecasts. The Class VII computer at the National Meteorological Center permits operational implementation of next-generation hurricane prediction models. The NWSx0027s Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) will be another tool for forecasting hurricanes. AWIPS is a highly automated and integrated weather information processing, communications, and display system that will be deployed to Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), River Forecast Centers (RFC), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Critical high-resolution hurricane information needed by local, state, and other federal agencies as well as the private sector, will be displayed graphically and transmitted to the user faster and more completely than ever before, making more effective warning and evacuation response. Aerial weather reconnaissance Aerial weather reconnaissance is vitally important to the forecasters of the National Hurricane Center. Aircraft reports help the meteorologist determine what is going on inside a storm as it actually happens. This, along with the broader view provided by data from satellites, floating buoys, and land and ship reports, makes up the total x0022packagex0022 of information available to hurricane forecasters who must make forecasts of the speed, intensity, and direction of the storm. Reconnaissance aircraft penetrate to the core of the storm and provide detailed measurements of its strengths as well as accurate location of its centerx2014information that is not available from any other source. The NHC is supported by specially modified aircraft of the U.S. Air Force Reserve (USAFR) and NOAAx0027s Aircraft Operations Center (NOAAAOC) The USAFR crews fly the Lockheed WC-130 Hercules, a giant four-engine turboprop aircraft that carries a crew of six people and can stay aloft for up to 14 hours. NOAAx0027s AOC flies Lockheed WP-3 Orion, a four-engine turboprop aircraft that carries a crew of 7x201317 persons and can stay aloft for up to 12 hours at a time. The NOAAAOC aircraft and crews are based at Miami International Airport. Both units can be deployed as necessary in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Central Pacific Ocean. Meteorological information obtained from aerial reconnaissance includes measurements of the winds, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and the location of the center of the storm. In addition, these aircraft also drop instruments called dropsondes as they fly through the stormx0027s center. These devices continuously radio back measurement of pressure, humidity, temperature, wind direction, and speed as they fall toward the sea. This information provides a detailed look at the structure of the storm and an indication of its intensity. Aerial weather reconnaissance of naturex0027s most powerful destructive force is not without risk. Since aircraft and crews first started flying into hurricanes and typhoons nearly 40 years ago, three have been lost, vanishing without a trace along with their crews. The first of these, a U.S. Navy P2V Neptune fell into the Caribbean Sea while flying into Hurricane Janet on September 26, 1955. Next came a U.S. Air Force WB-50 Super Fortress, which crashed into the Pacific Ocean on January 15, 1958 while penetrating Typhoon Ophelia. Also lost was a WC-130 Hercules that disappeared in the vicinity of Typhoon Bess in the Philippine Sea south of Taiwan on October 12, 1974. Flying into a hurricane is like no other experience. Crew members who have flown combat missions say that their feelings before these flights and those involving hurricanes are very similar. There is a blend of excitement and apprehension that is difficult to describe. Adding to the tension is the fact that no two hurricanes are alike. Some are gentle while others seem like raging bulls. Preparations for flying into a hurricane are very thorough. All crew members are fully trained by highly trained specialists. The crew takes special precautions as they enter the hurricane. All loose objects are tied down or put away and crew members slip into safety harnesses and belts. When radar picks up the storm, the crew then determines how to get inside. The idea is to make the aircraft mesh with the storm rather than fight it. If it is a well-defined storm, getting inside can be a real experience. The winds at flight altitude often exceed 100 mph, and the wall cloud surrounding the center, or eye, can be several miles thick. Rain comes down in torrents, and the updrafts and downdrafts are usually strong and frequent. Inside the eye, however, the conditions are much different. The ocean is generally visible, and there is blue sky and sunshine. The flight level winds are nearly calm. After gathering all the information they need, the crew then exits the storm in the same manner they entered. Making sure the NHC gets the aerial weather reconnaissance it needs is the job of a small group of Air Force people assigned to a liaison office in the Center. This office, under a former Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes (CARCAH), is responsible for 30 Costliest Mainland U.S. Hurricanes 1900x20132000 (Courtesy of National Climatic Data CenterNOAA.) coordinating requirements and arranging for the supporting flights. This office also records and monitors weather observations radioed back or received through direct satellite communication from the storm by the on-board meteorologists. These data are checked for accuracy and then transmitted to the worldwide meteorological community, through both military and civilian communications circuits. Weather Anecdotes April 12, 2001x2026Gulfport, MS. As attractions go, x0022Big Boyx0022 ranks decidedly lower than the Grand Canyon and Niagara Falls. But the catx2014so-named for his impressive girthx2014has nonetheless attracted a cult following. Big Boy blew into town three years ago, riding the tail of Hurricane Georges. He was hurled off a bait shop roof and dropped onto a 60-foot oak tree in Jones Park. From his perch, the 4-year old tabby has since nurtured his celebrity status. Children and fishermen bring him treats. Big Boy has apparently never left his tree house since the 1998 storm, and he weighs at least 20 pounds and eats and drinks from dishes nailed to the treex2014and he is not shy about demanding refills. When not sleeping or sharpening his claws, Big Boy moves from limb to limb for exercise. November 9, 1998x2026 Trujillo, Honduras. Swept out of her village by Hurricane Mitch, a 36-year old woman drifted alone for six days far into the Caribbean Sea. Her husband and three children had been killed in the storm. All she had was a makeshift raft, the sea below, the sun during the day, and the moon at night. No land was in sight. On the sixth day she spotted a duck nearby. Her desperation ended hours later. She was spotted by an airplane looking for a yacht that had disappeared during the storm. A British helicopter rescued her. She and her family had lived in the village of Barra de Aguan, near the mouth of the Aguan River. Normally her house was about 2 miles from the sea and more than a mile from the river on the other side. But when Mitch stalled over the Honduran coast on October 28, the sea and the river merged. Her house was quickly swept away and her family took refuge at a neighborx0027s home. Fourteen people climbed onto the roof, but soon the river tore through the house. One of her sons was ripped away from her, and she clung to some floating palm branches for four hours. Using debris in the water, she made a 4-by-4-foot raft out of tree roots, branches, and motorboard. While at sea she found coconuts, which gave her milk. She was found by the plane on November 2. She was picked up about 25 miles north of Guanaja Island, and about 75 miles from her home. Aircraft meteorological reconnaissance is a team effort. A host of different organizations, tied together by CARCAH, is dedicated to providing the NHC the vital information it needs to make accurate forecasts that help to ensure that communities in the path of a hurricane are adequately warned. Science may never provide a full solution to the problems of hurricane safety. But warnings and forecasts help save countless lives and allow residents to take the necessary precautions to prevent enormous property damage each year. 30 Costliest Mainland U.S. Hurricaneswiki How to Learn Guitar Scales Scales are an instrumental part of any musicians repertoire. They provide crucial building blocks for composition and improvisation in virtually every style and genre. Taking the time to master the most fundamental scales can make the difference between an average player and an excellent one. Luckily, when it comes to the guitar, learning scales is usually a matter of memorizing simple patterns through practice. Steps Edit Part One of Four: Basic Concepts and Terminology Edit Already have a little basic musical theory under your belt Feel free to skip to the scales themselves by clicking here . Learn to read the fretboard of a guitar. On a guitar, the front of the long, skinny part where you put your fingers is called the fretboard. The raised metal bumps on the fretboard divide it into frets. Scales are formed by playing notes on different patterns of frets, so its important to be able to identify them. See below: The frets are numbered from the tip of the neck towards the body of the guitar. For example, the fret at the very end of the neck is the first fret (or fret 1), the next fret in is the second fret . dan seterusnya. Holding down the string on a certain fret and strumming the string over the body of the guitar plays a note. The closer the frets get to the body, the higher the notes get. The dots on the fret are just for reference they make it easier to know where youre putting your fingers without having to count the frets up the neck constantly. Learn the names of the notes on the fretboard. Every single fret on the guitar plays a note that has a name. Luckily, there are only 12 notes the names just repeat over and over. The notes you can play are below. Note that some notes have two different names: A, ABb, B, C, CDb, D, DEb, E, F, F Gb, G, GAb. After this, the notes start at A again and repeat. Learning the positions of the different notes is something thats not super hard, but it takes a little too long to cover in this article. If you need help, try our article on the subject . Learn the names of the strings. You can talk about the different strings with names like thickest, second thickest, and so on, but its a lot easier to discuss scales if you know the strings proper names. This is also handy because the strings are named after the note that they play when you dont press any of the frets . On a normal six-string guitar in standard tuning, the strings are: 1 E (thickest) A D G B E (thinnest) note that this has the same name as the thickest string, so some people will say low and high E to tell them apart. Youll also sometimes see a lowercase e used for the thinnest string. Learn the concept of whole and half steps in a scale. In simple terms, a scale is just a sequence of notes that sound nice when you play them in order. When we learn scales below, well see that all scales are built from patterns of whole steps and half steps. This sounds complicated, but these are just ways to describe different distances on the fretboard: 2 A half step is a distance of one fret up or down. For example, if you play a C (A string, third fret), moving one fret up will give you a C (A string, fourth fret). We can say that C and C are one half step apart. A whole step is the same thing except that the distance is two frets . For example, if we start on C and move two frets up, well play a D (A string, fifth fret). Thus, C and D are a whole step apart. Degrees of a scale. Were almost ready to start learning scales. The final concept to understand is that, since scales are sequences of notes that are supposed to be played in order, scale notes get special numbered names called degrees to help you identify them. The degrees are listed below. 3 Learning the number name for each degree is most important the other names are used less often. The note you start on is called the root or first . It is also sometimes called the tonic . The second note is called the second or supertonic . The third note is called the third or mediant . The fourth note is called the fourth or subdominant . The fifth note is called the fifth or dominant . The sixth note is called the sixth or submediant . The seventh note is called the seventh it has a couple of other names that change depending on the scale, so well ignore them in this article. The eighth note is called the octave . Its also sometimes called the tonic because its the same note as the first, only higher. After the octave, you can either start over again from the second or keep going on from the ninth. For instance, the note after the octave can be called the ninth or the second, but its the same note either way. Practice chromatic scales for form and speed. One type of scale thats useful from a practice perspective is the chromatic scale. In this scale, all the degrees are a half step apart . This means that a chromatic scale can be made simply by going up and down the frets in order. Try this chromatic exercise: First, pick one of the guitars strings (it doesnt matter which). Start counting a steady 44 beat. Play the sting open (no notes fretted) as a quarter note, then the first fret, then the second, then the third. Without stopping, play the first fret, then the second, third, and fourth. Keep the beat steady and play the second fret, then the third, fourth, and fifth. Continue this pattern until you reach the 12th fret, then go back down For example, if youre playing on the high E string, your chromatic exercise would look like this: Measure one: E (open), F (fret 1), F (fret 2), G (fret 3) Measure two: F (fret 1), F (fret 2), G (fret 3), G (fret 4) . and so on up to the 12th fret (then back down). Learn the pentatonic scale. The pentatonic scale has only 5 notes and they all sound good when theyre played together, so this scale is used often for soloing. Specifically, the minor pentatonic is especially popular in rock, jazz, and blues music. Its used so often that its sometimes just called the pentatonic for short. This is the scale well learn below. The minor pentatonic contains these degrees: Root, flat third, fourth, fifth, and flat seventh (plus the octave) . Its basically a minor scale without the second or sixth. For example, if we start on the low E string, the A minor pentatonic scale would be: Low E string: A (fret 5), C (fret 8) A string: D (fret 5), E (fret 7) D string: G (fret 5), A (fret 7) From here, if we want, we can keep going, playing the same notes on higher strings: G string: C (fret 5), D (fret 7) B string: E (fret 5), G (fret 8) E string: A (fret 5), C (fret 8) Learn the blues scale. Once you know the minor pentatonic scale, its very easy to play a related scale called the blues scale. All you need to do is add the flat fifth scale degree to the minor pentatonic. This will give you a scale with six notes everything else is the same. For example, if we wanted to turn the A minor pentatonic scale into the A blues scale, we would play: Low E string: A (fret 5), C (fret 8) A string: D (fret 5), Eb (fret 6) . E (fret 7) D string: G (fret 5), A (fret 7) G string: C (fret 5), D (fret 7), Eb (fret 8) B string: E (fret 5), G (fret 8) E string: A (fret 5), C (fret 8) The flat fifth is known as the blue note. Even though its in the scale, it sounds a little weird and discordant by itself, so if youre soloing, try to use it as a leading tone that is, play it on the way to another note. Dont hang on the blue note for too long Learn two-octave versions of all the scales. Once you reach a scales octave, you dont always have to go back down. Just treat the octave as the new root and use the same step pattern to play a second octave. We touched on this briefly with the minor pentatonic scale above, but this is something you can learn for virtually all scales. Starting on one of the bottom two strings generally makes it easier to fit two whole octaves in the same area of the neck. Note that the second octave usually has a different fingering pattern even though the steps are the same . Lets learn a two-octave major scale once you know this, its easier to figure out two-octave versions of the minor scales. Well try G major (the very first scale we learned at the top of the article). Right now, we know this: Low E string: G (fret 3), A (fret 5), B (fret 7) A string: C (fret 3), D (fret 5), E (fret 7) D string: F (fret 4), G (fret 5) Keep going, using the same step pattern: whole step, whole step, half step, and so on. D string: G (fret 5), A (fret 7) G string: B (fret 4), C (fret 5), D (fret 7) B string: E (fret 5), F (fret 7), G (fret 8) . and then back down Reader Success Stories Explanations of intervals, where notes are on the fret, and how major becomes minor, etc. are often in separate tutorials. Here the interrelationship of all these things are explained together, thus making it easier to understand each part.. more - John Smith Really explained scales of guitar and the difference of rock and blue scales in such a way that simply you have given sweet grapes to eat. I am saying this after 2 years experience with my local guitar teacher and online tutorials. Terima kasih. more - Ravivarma Gadiraju Ive been playing guitar for almost 60yrs and never had a lesson. These articles helped me understand what Im able to play. Very simple and basic. Thanks for the help.. more - James Kilgore This article helped me a lot because everything is mentioned here step-by-step and with figures, which makes it so understandable. Now I can play guitar scales.. more - Anjali Patel It cleared all my questions related to the scale formation and lead as well. Thank you so much for the lovely topic.. more - Akash Wadalkar This was very helpful to augment what is in my basic guitar books. The illustrations worked very well with the text.. more - Tyrone Burson The pictures on the page are quite helpful. The article is simple and easy for even a layman to understand. more - Rajshekar Sampathkumar Its clear and comprehensive, so I can structure my own lessons effectively. - L. N. Best lesson I ever had. Now I understand notes and scales. Thank you - Claus Nadal I loved it. So clear and easy. I am glad I found this article. - Refik Aylan Wonderful, your information is very useful and complete. - Vikas Sharma It is easy to learn to move the finger chord to chord. - Lionel Dsilva Very simplistic and great visuals, thank you - Ryan Gill Awesome, very detailed and helpful - Ben Carney
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