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Arsitektur Lantai Perdagangan Arsitektur Lantai Arsitektur Ikhtisar Eksekutif Meningkatnya persaingan, volume data pasar yang lebih tinggi, dan tuntutan peraturan baru adalah beberapa kekuatan pendorong di balik perubahan industri. Perusahaan berusaha mempertahankan daya saing mereka dengan terus mengubah strategi trading mereka dan meningkatkan kecepatan trading. Arsitektur yang layak harus menyertakan teknologi terbaru dari domain jaringan dan aplikasi. Ini harus modular untuk menyediakan jalur yang dapat dikelola untuk mengembangkan setiap komponen dengan gangguan minimal pada keseluruhan sistem. Oleh karena itu arsitektur yang diusulkan oleh makalah ini didasarkan pada kerangka layanan. Kami memeriksa layanan seperti pesan latency ultra rendah, pemantauan latency, multicast, komputasi, penyimpanan, virtualisasi data dan aplikasi, ketahanan perdagangan, mobilitas perdagangan, dan thin client. Solusi untuk kebutuhan kompleks dari platform perdagangan generasi berikutnya harus dibangun dengan pola pikir holistik, melintasi batas-batas silo tradisional seperti bisnis dan teknologi atau aplikasi dan jaringan. Tujuan utama dokumen ini adalah untuk memberikan panduan untuk membangun platform perdagangan laten ultra-rendah sambil mengoptimalkan throughput mentah dan tingkat pesan untuk data pasar dan pesanan perdagangan FIX. Untuk mencapai hal ini, kami mengusulkan teknologi pengurangan latency berikut: Konektivitas antar-koneksiInfiniBand atau 10 Gbps berkecepatan tinggi untuk cluster perdagangan Bus olahpesan berkecepatan tinggi Akselerasi aplikasi melalui RDMA tanpa kode ulang aplikasi Pemantauan latency real-time dan pengarahan ulang Lalu lintas perdagangan ke jalur dengan latency minimum Tren Industri dan Tantangan Arsitektur perdagangan generasi mendatang harus merespons tuntutan peningkatan kecepatan, volume, dan efisiensi. Misalnya, volume pilihan data pasar diperkirakan akan berlipat ganda setelah diperkenalkannya opsi penny trading di tahun 2007. Ada juga tuntutan regulasi untuk eksekusi terbaik, yang memerlukan penanganan update harga pada tingkat yang mendekati 1M msgsec. Untuk pertukaran Mereka juga membutuhkan visibilitas terhadap kesegaran data dan bukti bahwa klien mendapatkan eksekusi sebaik mungkin. Dalam jangka pendek, kecepatan perdagangan dan inovasi adalah pembeda utama. Semakin banyak perdagangan ditangani oleh aplikasi perdagangan algoritmik yang ditempatkan sedekat mungkin dengan tempat eksekusi perdagangan. Sebuah tantangan dengan mesin perdagangan quotblack-boxquot ini adalah bahwa mereka menambah kenaikan volume dengan mengeluarkan perintah hanya untuk membatalkannya dan mengirimkannya kembali. Penyebab perilaku ini adalah kurangnya visibilitas ke tempat mana yang menawarkan eksekusi terbaik. Pedagang manusia sekarang menjadi insinyur quotfinancial, mengutip kuquantquot (analis kuantitatif) dengan keahlian pemrograman, yang dapat menyesuaikan model perdagangan dengan cepat. Perusahaan mengembangkan instrumen keuangan baru seperti derivatif cuaca atau perdagangan kelas lintas-aset dan mereka perlu menerapkan aplikasi baru dengan cepat dan dengan cara yang terukur. Dalam jangka panjang, diferensiasi kompetitif harus berasal dari analisis, bukan hanya pengetahuan. Para pedagang bintang di masa depan mengambil risiko, mencapai wawasan klien sejati, dan secara konsisten mengalahkan pasar (sumber IBM: www-935.ibmservicesusimcpdfge510-6270-trader.pdf). Ketahanan bisnis telah menjadi perhatian utama perusahaan perdagangan sejak 11 September 2001. Solusi di bidang ini berkisar dari pusat data yang berlebihan yang berada di geografi yang berbeda dan terhubung ke beberapa tempat perdagangan ke solusi pedagang virtual yang menawarkan kepada para pedagang listrik sebagian besar fungsi lantai perdagangan. Di lokasi terpencil Industri jasa keuangan adalah salah satu yang paling menuntut dalam hal persyaratan TI. Industri ini mengalami pergeseran arsitektur menuju Services-Oriented Architecture (SOA), layanan Web, dan virtualisasi sumber daya TI. SOA mengambil keuntungan dari peningkatan kecepatan jaringan untuk memungkinkan pengikatan dinamis dan virtualisasi komponen perangkat lunak. Hal ini memungkinkan terciptanya aplikasi baru tanpa kehilangan investasi pada sistem dan infrastruktur yang ada. Konsep ini berpotensi merevolusi cara integrasi dilakukan, memungkinkan pengurangan kompleksitas dan biaya integrasi yang signifikan (gigervasidownloadMerrilLynchGigaSpacesWP.pdf). Tren lain adalah konsolidasi server ke server data center server, sementara meja pedagang hanya memiliki ekstensi KVM dan klien ultra tipis (misalnya solusi blade SunRay dan HP). Jaringan Area Metro berkecepatan tinggi memungkinkan data pasar menjadi multicast di antara lokasi yang berbeda, yang memungkinkan virtualisasi lantai perdagangan. Arsitektur Tingkat Tinggi Gambar 1 menggambarkan arsitektur tingkat tinggi dari lingkungan perdagangan. Pabrik ticker dan mesin perdagangan algoritmik terletak di cluster perdagangan berkinerja tinggi di pusat data perusahaan atau di bursa. Pedagang manusia berada di area aplikasi pengguna akhir. Secara fungsional ada dua komponen aplikasi di lingkungan perdagangan perusahaan, penerbit dan pelanggan. Bus perpesanan menyediakan jalur komunikasi antara penerbit dan pelanggan. Ada dua jenis lalu lintas yang spesifik untuk lingkungan perdagangan: Informasi harga Market DataCarries untuk instrumen keuangan, berita, dan informasi nilai tambah lainnya seperti analisis. Ini searah dan sangat latency sensitif, biasanya disampaikan melalui multicast UDP. Hal ini diukur dalam updatessec. Dan di Mbps. Data pasar mengalir dari satu atau beberapa umpan eksternal, berasal dari penyedia data pasar seperti bursa saham, agregator data, dan ECN. Setiap provider memiliki format data pasar tersendiri. Data tersebut diterima oleh penangan umpan, aplikasi khusus yang menormalkan dan membersihkan data dan kemudian mengirimkannya ke konsumen data, seperti mesin harga, aplikasi perdagangan algoritmik, atau pedagang manusia. Perusahaan sisi penjualan juga mengirim data pasar ke klien mereka, perusahaan sisi beli seperti reksadana, hedge fund, dan manajer aset lainnya. Beberapa perusahaan penjual beli mungkin memilih untuk menerima umpan langsung dari bursa, mengurangi latensi. Gambar 1 Arsitektur Perdagangan untuk Side Side Side Beli Tidak ada standar industri untuk format data pasar. Setiap pertukaran memiliki format kepemilikan mereka. Penyedia konten keuangan seperti Reuters dan Bloomberg mengumpulkan beragam sumber data pasar, menormalisasi, dan menambahkan berita atau analisis. Contoh feed konsolidasi adalah RDF (Reuters Data Feed), RWF (Reuters Wire Format), dan Bloomberg Professional Services Data. Untuk memberikan data pasar latensi yang lebih rendah, kedua vendor tersebut telah merilis umpan data pasar real-time yang kurang diproses dan kurang memiliki analisis: B-PipeWith Bloomberg B-Pipe, Bloomberg mengganti data pasar mereka dari platform distribusi mereka karena sebuah terminal Bloomberg Tidak diperlukan untuk mendapatkan B-Pipe. Wombat dan Reuters Feed Handlers telah mengumumkan dukungan untuk B-Pipe. Perusahaan mungkin memutuskan untuk menerima umpan langsung dari pertukaran untuk mengurangi latensi. Keuntungan dalam kecepatan transmisi bisa berkisar antara 150 milidetik hingga 500 milidetik. Umpan ini lebih kompleks dan lebih mahal dan perusahaan harus membangun dan memelihara pabrik ticker mereka sendiri (financetechfeaturedshowArticle.jhtmlarticleID60404306). Orders Perdagangan Trafik jenis ini membawa perdagangan yang sebenarnya. Ini bersifat bi-directional dan sangat latency sensitive. Hal ini diukur dalam messagessec. Dan Mbps. Perintah berasal dari sisi beli atau sisi menjual perusahaan dan dikirim ke tempat perdagangan seperti Exchange atau ECN untuk eksekusi. Format yang paling umum untuk transportasi pesanan adalah FIX (Financial Information eXchangefixprotocol.org). Aplikasi yang menangani pesan FIX disebut mesin FIX dan mereka berinteraksi dengan sistem manajemen pesanan (OMS). Pengoptimalan ke FIX disebut FAST (Fix Adapted for Streaming), yang menggunakan skema kompresi untuk mengurangi panjang pesan dan, pada dasarnya, mengurangi latency. FAST ditargetkan lebih pada penyampaian data pasar dan berpotensi menjadi standar. FAST juga bisa digunakan sebagai skema kompresi untuk format data pasar proprietary. Untuk mengurangi latensi, perusahaan dapat memilih untuk menetapkan Direct Market Access (DMA). DMA adalah proses otomatis untuk merutekan pesanan sekuritas secara langsung ke tempat eksekusi, oleh karena itu hindari intervensi oleh pihak ketiga (towergroupresearchcontentglossary.jsppage1ampglossaryId383). DMA membutuhkan koneksi langsung ke tempat eksekusi. Bus perpesanan adalah perangkat lunak middleware dari vendor seperti Tibco, 29West, Reuters RMDS, atau platform open source seperti AMQP. Bus perpesanan menggunakan mekanisme yang andal untuk menyampaikan pesan. Transportasi dapat dilakukan melalui TCPIP (TibcoEMS, 29West, RMDS, dan AMQP) atau UDPmulticast (TibcoRV, 29West, dan RMDS). Salah satu konsep penting dalam distribusi pesan adalah aliran kuotopik, quot yang merupakan subkumpulan data pasar yang ditentukan oleh kriteria seperti simbol ticker, industri, atau sekumpulan instrumen keuangan tertentu. Pelanggan bergabung dengan grup topik yang dipetakan ke satu atau beberapa sub-topik untuk hanya menerima informasi yang relevan. Dulu, semua pedagang menerima semua data pasar. Pada arus lalu lintas saat ini, ini akan kurang optimal. Jaringan memainkan peran penting dalam lingkungan perdagangan. Data pasar dibawa ke lantai perdagangan dimana pedagang manusia berada melalui jaringan berkecepatan tinggi Kampus atau Metro Area. Ketersediaan tinggi dan latensi rendah, serta throughput yang tinggi, adalah metrik yang paling penting. Lingkungan perdagangan berperforma tinggi memiliki sebagian besar komponennya di peternakan server Data Center. Untuk meminimalkan latency, mesin perdagangan algoritmik perlu ditempatkan di dekat penangan umpan, mesin FIX, dan sistem manajemen pesanan. Model penyebaran alternatif memiliki sistem perdagangan algoritmik yang berada pada pertukaran atau penyedia layanan dengan konektivitas cepat ke banyak pertukaran. Model Deployment Ada dua model penyebaran untuk platform perdagangan berperforma tinggi. Perusahaan dapat memilih untuk memiliki perpaduan keduanya: Pusat Data perusahaan perdagangan (Gambar 2) Ini adalah model tradisional, di mana platform perdagangan penuh dikembangkan dan dikelola oleh perusahaan dengan tautan komunikasi ke semua tempat perdagangan. Latency bervariasi dengan kecepatan link dan jumlah hop antara perusahaan dan tempat-tempat. Gambar 2 Lokakarya Model Penyebaran Tradisional di tempat perdagangan (pertukaran, penyedia layanan keuangan (FSP)) (Gambar 3) Perusahaan perdagangan menyebarkan platform perdagangan otomatis sedekat mungkin ke tempat eksekusi untuk meminimalkan latensi. Gambar 3 Hosted Deployment Model Services-Oriented Trading Architecture Kami mengusulkan kerangka kerja berorientasi layanan untuk membangun arsitektur perdagangan generasi berikutnya. Pendekatan ini memberikan kerangka konseptual dan jalur implementasi berdasarkan modularisasi dan minimisasi antar-dependensi. Kerangka kerja ini memberi perusahaan metodologi untuk: Mengevaluasi keadaan mereka saat ini dalam hal layanan Memprioritaskan layanan berdasarkan nilai mereka ke bisnis Mengembangkan platform perdagangan ke negara yang diinginkan dengan menggunakan pendekatan modular Arsitektur perdagangan berperforma tinggi bergantung pada layanan berikut, sebagai Didefinisikan oleh kerangka arsitektur layanan yang ditunjukkan pada Gambar 4. Kerangka Kerja Arsitektur Layanan untuk Layanan Pesan Ultra-Low Latency High Performance Trading Layanan ini disediakan oleh bus olahpesan, yang merupakan sistem perangkat lunak yang memecahkan masalah menghubungkan banyak-ke- Banyak aplikasi Sistem terdiri dari: Kumpulan skema pesan yang telah ditentukan sebelumnya Sekumpulan pesan perintah umum Infrastruktur aplikasi bersama untuk mengirim pesan ke penerima. Infrastruktur bersama dapat didasarkan pada broker pesan atau pada model penerbitan langganan. Persyaratan utama untuk bus perpesanan generasi berikutnya adalah (sumber 29West): Terendah mungkin latency (misalnya kurang dari 100 mikrodetik) Stabilitas di bawah beban berat (misalnya lebih dari 1,4 juta pesan) Kontrol dan fleksibilitas (kontrol tingkat dan transportasi yang dapat dikonfigurasi) Ada Adalah upaya di industri untuk menstandardisasi bus pesan. Advanced Message Queuing Protocol (AMQP) adalah contoh standar terbuka yang diperjuangkan oleh J.P. Morgan Chase dan didukung oleh sekelompok vendor seperti Cisco, Envoy Technologies, Red Hat, TWIST Process Innovations, Iona, 29West, dan iMatix. Dua dari tujuan utama adalah untuk menyediakan jalur yang lebih sederhana untuk interoperabilitas untuk aplikasi yang ditulis pada platform dan modularitas yang berbeda sehingga middleware dapat dengan mudah berevolusi. Dalam istilah yang sangat umum, server AMQP analog dengan server E-mail dengan setiap pertukaran bertindak sebagai agen transfer pesan dan setiap antrian pesan sebagai kotak surat. Bindings menentukan tabel routing di setiap agen transfer. Penerbit mengirim pesan ke agen transfer individual, yang kemudian mengarahkan pesan ke dalam kotak pesan. Konsumen mengambil pesan dari kotak pesan, yang menciptakan model yang kuat dan fleksibel yang sederhana (sumber: amqp.orgtikiwikitiki-index.phppageOpenApproachWhyAMQP). Layanan Pemantauan Latensi Persyaratan utama untuk layanan ini adalah: Kerangka pengukuran sub-milidetik Jarak dekat dengan jarak pandang nyata tanpa menambahkan latency ke lalu lintas perdagangan Kemampuan untuk membedakan latency pemrosesan aplikasi dari latency transit jaringan Kemampuan untuk menangani tingkat pesan tinggi Menyediakan antarmuka program untuk Aplikasi perdagangan untuk menerima data latensi, sehingga memungkinkan mesin perdagangan algoritmik untuk menyesuaikan diri terhadap perubahan kondisi. Mengaitkan aktivitas jaringan dengan peristiwa aplikasi untuk tujuan pemecahan masalah Latensi dapat didefinisikan sebagai selang waktu antara saat pesanan perdagangan dikirim dan kapan pesanan dan akta yang sama diakui. Oleh pihak penerima. Mengatasi masalah latensi adalah masalah yang kompleks, memerlukan pendekatan holistik yang mengidentifikasi semua sumber latensi dan menerapkan teknologi yang berbeda pada lapisan sistem yang berbeda. Gambar 5 menggambarkan berbagai komponen yang dapat mengenalkan latency pada setiap lapisan tumpukan OSI. Ini juga memetakan setiap sumber latensi dengan solusi yang mungkin dan solusi pemantauan. Pendekatan berlapis ini dapat memberi perusahaan cara yang lebih terstruktur untuk menyerang masalah latensi, di mana setiap komponen dapat dianggap sebagai layanan dan diperlakukan secara konsisten di seluruh perusahaan. Mempertahankan ukuran akurat dari keadaan dinamis dari interval waktu ini melintasi rute alternatif dan tujuan dapat menjadi bantuan besar dalam keputusan perdagangan taktis. Kemampuan untuk mengidentifikasi lokasi penundaan yang tepat, baik di jaringan tepi pelanggan, pusat pemrosesan pusat, atau tingkat aplikasi transaksi, secara signifikan menentukan kemampuan penyedia layanan untuk memenuhi perjanjian tingkat layanan perdagangan mereka (SLA). Untuk sisi beli dan sisi penjualan, juga untuk sindikator pasar data, identifikasi cepat dan penghapusan kemacetan diterjemahkan langsung ke dalam peluang dan pendapatan perdagangan yang disempurnakan. Gambar 5 Arsitektur Manajemen Latency Peralatan Pemrograman Cisco Latent Latency Alat pemantau jaringan tradisional beroperasi dengan granulasi menit atau detik. Platform perdagangan generasi berikutnya, terutama yang mendukung perdagangan algoritmik, memerlukan latensi kurang dari 5 ms dan tingkat packet loss yang sangat rendah. Di LAN Gigabit, microburst 100 ms dapat menyebabkan 10.000 transaksi hilang atau terlalu tertunda. Cisco menawarkan kepada pelanggannya pilihan alat untuk mengukur latensi di lingkungan perdagangan: Manajer Mutu Bandwidth (BQM) (OEM dari Corvil) Manajer Solusi Kualitas Latency Monitoring (LDS) berbasis Cisco AON Manajer Kualitas Bandwidth Quality Manager (BQM) 4.0 adalah Produk manajemen kinerja aplikasi jaringan generasi berikutnya yang memungkinkan pelanggan memantau dan menyediakan jaringan mereka untuk tingkat kinerja latensi dan kerugian yang terkontrol. Sementara BQM tidak ditargetkan secara eksklusif pada jaringan perdagangan, visibilitas mikrosekalnya dikombinasikan dengan fitur penyediaan bandwidth yang cerdas membuatnya ideal untuk lingkungan yang menuntut ini. Cisco BQM 4.0 menerapkan seperangkat pengukuran lalu lintas yang dipatenkan dan dipatenkan dengan paten dan teknologi analisis jaringan yang memberikan visibilitas dan pemahaman pengguna yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya tentang bagaimana mengoptimalkan jaringan untuk kinerja aplikasi maksimal. Cisco BQM sekarang didukung pada keluarga produk dari Cisco Application Deployment Engine (ADE). Keluarga produk ADE Cisco adalah platform pilihan untuk aplikasi manajemen jaringan Cisco. Manfaat BQM Visibilitas mikro Cisco BQM adalah kemampuan untuk mendeteksi, mengukur, dan menganalisis latency, jitter, dan loss yang menginduksi aktivitas lalu lintas hingga tingkat granularitas mikrodetik dengan per resolusi paket. Hal ini memungkinkan Cisco BQM untuk mendeteksi dan menentukan dampak kejadian lalu lintas pada latency jaringan, jitter, dan loss. Kritis untuk lingkungan trading adalah BQM dapat mendukung pengukuran latency, loss, dan jitter satu arah untuk lalu lintas TCP dan UDP (multicast). Ini berarti laporan lancar untuk lalu lintas perdagangan dan umpan data pasar. BQM memungkinkan pengguna untuk menentukan kumpulan ambang yang komprehensif (terhadap aktivitas microburst, latency, loss, jitter, utilisasi, dll.) Pada semua antarmuka. BQM kemudian mengoperasikan capture paket latar belakang. Kapan pun terjadi pelanggaran ambang atau kejadian penurunan kinerja potensial lainnya, hal itu memicu Cisco BQM untuk menyimpan tangkapan paket ke disk untuk analisis selanjutnya. Hal ini memungkinkan pengguna untuk memeriksa secara lengkap lalu lintas aplikasi yang terkena dampak degradasi kinerja (quotthe victimquot) dan lalu lintas yang menyebabkan penurunan kinerja (quotthe culpritsquot). Hal ini dapat secara signifikan mengurangi waktu yang dihabiskan untuk mendiagnosis dan menyelesaikan masalah kinerja jaringan. BQM juga mampu memberikan rekomendasi provisioning kebijakan bandwidth dan kualitas yang terperinci (QoS), dimana pengguna dapat langsung menerapkannya untuk mencapai kinerja jaringan yang diinginkan. Pengukuran BQM Ilustrasi Untuk memahami perbedaan antara beberapa teknik pengukuran yang lebih konvensional dan visibilitas yang diberikan oleh BQM, kita dapat melihat beberapa grafik perbandingan. Pada grafik pertama (Gambar 6 dan Gambar 7), kita melihat perbedaan antara latency yang diukur oleh MQS Passive Network Quality Monitor (PNQM) dan latency yang diukur dengan menyuntikkan paket ping setiap 1 detik ke arus lalu lintas. Pada Gambar 6. kita melihat latensi yang dilaporkan oleh paket ping ICMP 1 detik untuk lalu lintas jaringan sesungguhnya (dibagi dengan 2 untuk memberikan perkiraan penundaan satu arah). Ini menunjukkan penundaan dengan nyaman di bawah sekitar 5ms hampir sepanjang waktu. Gambar 6 Latency Dilaporkan oleh Paket Ping ICMP 1-Kedua untuk Lalu Lintas Jaringan Nyata Pada Gambar 7. kita melihat latency yang dilaporkan oleh PNQM untuk lalu lintas yang sama pada waktu yang bersamaan. Di sini kita melihat bahwa dengan mengukur latency satu arah dari paket aplikasi yang sebenarnya, kita mendapatkan gambaran yang sangat berbeda. Di sini latency terlihat melayang sekitar 20 ms, dengan semburan sesekali jauh lebih tinggi. Penjelasannya adalah karena ping hanya mengirim paket hanya setiap detik, itu benar-benar kehilangan sebagian besar latensi lalu lintas aplikasi. Sebenarnya, hasil ping biasanya hanya mengindikasikan delay propagasi round trip daripada latensi aplikasi yang realistis di seluruh jaringan. Gambar 7 Latency yang Dilaporkan oleh PNQM untuk Lalu Lintas Jaringan Nyata Pada contoh kedua (Gambar 8), kita melihat perbedaan dalam pemuatan beban atau tingkat kejenuhan yang dilaporkan antara tampilan rata-rata 5 menit dan tampilan mikroburst 5 ms (BQM dapat melaporkan microbursts down Sekitar 10-100 nanosecond akurasi). Garis hijau menunjukkan rata-rata utilisasi rata-rata 5 menit menjadi rendah, mungkin sampai 5 Mbits. Plot biru tua menunjukkan aktivitas microburst 5ms yang mencapai antara 75 Mbits dan 100 Mbitss, kecepatan LAN efektif. BQM menunjukkan tingkat granularitas ini untuk semua aplikasi dan juga memberikan aturan provisioning yang jelas untuk memungkinkan pengguna mengendalikan atau menetralisir microburst ini. Gambar 8 Perbedaan Beban Pemuatan yang Dilaporkan Antara Tampilan Rata-rata 5 Menit dan Penerapan Microburst View BQM 5 Miliar di Jaringan Perdagangan Gambar 9 menunjukkan penyebaran BQM yang khas dalam jaringan perdagangan. Gambar 9 Penerapan BQM Khas dalam Jaringan Perdagangan BQM kemudian dapat digunakan untuk menjawab jenis pertanyaan ini: Apakah ada tautan inti Gigabit LAN saya yang jenuh lebih dari X milidetik Apakah ini menyebabkan kerugian Tautan mana yang paling diuntungkan dari peningkatan versi ke Etherchannel atau 10 Gigabit kecepatan Apa lalu lintas aplikasi yang menyebabkan saturasi 1 link Gigabit saya Apakah ada data pasar yang mengalami kerugian end-to-end Berapa banyak latensi tambahan yang dimiliki oleh failover data center experience Apakah tautan ini berukuran benar untuk menangani microburst Apakah para pedagang saya Mendapatkan update latency rendah dari lapisan distribusi data pasar Apakah mereka melihat penundaan lebih besar dari pada X milidetik Mampu menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan ini secara sederhana dan efektif menghemat waktu dan uang dalam menjalankan jaringan perdagangan. BQM adalah alat penting untuk mendapatkan visibilitas di data pasar dan lingkungan perdagangan. Ini menyediakan pengukuran latensi end-to-end granular di infrastruktur kompleks yang mengalami pergerakan data bervolume tinggi. Mendeteksi ledakan mikroba secara efektif pada tingkat sub-milidetik dan menerima analisis ahli pada peristiwa tertentu sangat berharga bagi arsitek lantai perdagangan. Rekomendasi penyediaan bandwidth yang cerdas, seperti ukuran dan analisis apa, jika memberikan kelincahan yang lebih besar untuk merespons kondisi pasar yang mudah berubah. Seiring dengan meledaknya perdagangan algoritmik dan meningkatnya tingkat pesan, BQM, yang dikombinasikan dengan alat QoS-nya, memberikan kemampuan untuk menerapkan kebijakan QoS yang dapat melindungi aplikasi perdagangan penting. Solusi Pemantauan Latency Cisco Financial Services Cisco dan Trading Metrics telah berkolaborasi dalam solusi pemantauan latency untuk aliran pesanan FIX dan pemantauan data pasar. Teknologi Cisco AON adalah fondasi untuk kelas baru produk dan solusi tertanam jaringan yang membantu menggabungkan jaringan cerdas dengan infrastruktur aplikasi, berdasarkan arsitektur berorientasi layanan atau tradisional. Trading Metrics adalah penyedia perangkat lunak analisis untuk infrastruktur jaringan dan tujuan pemantauan latensi aplikasi (tradingmetrics). Solusi Pemantauan Latency Cisco AON Financial Services (FSMS) menghubungkan dua jenis peristiwa pada titik pengamatan: Peristiwa jaringan berkorelasi langsung dengan penanganan pesan aplikasi bersamaan Arus pesanan perdagangan dan peristiwa pembaruan pasar yang serasi Menggunakan stempel waktu yang diajukan pada titik penangkapan di Jaringan, analisis real-time dari aliran data berkorelasi ini memungkinkan identifikasi yang tepat mengenai kemacetan di seluruh infrastruktur saat perdagangan dijalankan atau data pasar didistribusikan. Dengan memantau dan mengukur latensi pada awal siklus, perusahaan keuangan dapat membuat keputusan yang lebih baik mengenai layanan jaringan dan mana perantara, pasar, atau mitra kerja untuk memilih pesanan perdagangan pesanan. Demikian juga, pengetahuan ini memungkinkan akses yang lebih efisien ke data pasar yang diperbarui (harga saham, berita ekonomi, dll.), Yang merupakan dasar penting untuk memulai, menarik diri dari, atau mengejar peluang pasar. Komponen solusinya adalah: Perangkat keras AON dalam tiga faktor bentuk: Modul Jaringan AON untuk router Cisco A00000000000000 untuk perangkat Cisco Catalyst 6500 series AON 8340 Appliance Trading Metrics MampA 2.0, yang menyediakan aplikasi pemantauan dan peringatan, menampilkan grafik latensi pada Sebuah dasbor, dan mengeluarkan peringatan saat terjadi kemunduran (tradingmetricsTMbrochure.pdf). Gambar 10 Pemantauan Latency FIX Berbasis AON Cisco IP SLA Cisco IP SLA adalah alat manajemen jaringan tertanam di Cisco IOS yang memungkinkan router dan switch untuk menghasilkan arus lalu lintas sintetis yang dapat diukur untuk latency, jitter, packet loss, dan kriteria lainnya (ciscogoipsla ). Dua konsep utama adalah sumber lalu lintas dan target yang dihasilkan. Keduanya menjalankan kuotasi IP SLA, quot yang memiliki tanggung jawab untuk menghitung arus lalu lintas kontrol sebelum bersumber dan dikembalikan oleh target (untuk pengukuran perjalanan pulang-pergi). Berbagai jenis lalu lintas dapat bersumber dalam IP SLA dan ditujukan pada berbagai metrik dan menargetkan berbagai layanan dan aplikasi. Operasi jitter UDP digunakan untuk mengukur delay satu arah dan round-trip dan variasi laporan. Karena lalu lintas adalah waktu yang dicap pada perangkat pengirim dan target yang menggunakan kemampuan responder, penundaan perjalanan pulang-pergi ditandai sebagai delta antara dua cap waktu. Fitur baru diperkenalkan di IOS 12.3 (14) T, Pelaporan Lapis Segmen IP SLA, yang memungkinkan cap waktu ditampilkan dengan resolusi dalam mikrodetik, sehingga memberikan tingkat granularitas yang sebelumnya tidak tersedia. Fitur baru ini sekarang membuat IP SLA relevan dengan jaringan kampus dimana latency jaringan biasanya berada pada kisaran 300-800 mikrodetik dan kemampuan untuk mendeteksi tren dan lonjakan (tren singkat) berdasarkan penghitung granularitas mikrodetik adalah persyaratan bagi pelanggan yang terlibat dalam waktu. -sensitif perdagangan elektronik lingkungan. Akibatnya, SLA IP sekarang dipertimbangkan oleh sejumlah besar organisasi keuangan karena semuanya menghadapi persyaratan untuk: Melaporkan latensi awal kepada pengguna mereka Melemahkan latensi dasar dari waktu ke waktu Menanggapi dengan cepat semburan lalu lintas yang menyebabkan perubahan pada latensi yang dilaporkan Sub- Laporan milisecond diperlukan untuk pelanggan ini, karena banyak kampus dan tulang punggung saat ini memberikan latency kedua di beberapa hop switch. Lingkungan perdagangan elektronik pada umumnya bekerja untuk menghilangkan atau meminimalkan semua area perangkat dan latency jaringan untuk memberikan pemenuhan pesanan yang cepat terhadap bisnis. Melaporkan bahwa waktu respons jaringan hanya di bawah satu milidetik yang tidak lagi memadai, granularitas pengukuran latensi yang dilaporkan di segmen jaringan atau tulang punggung harus mendekati 300-800 detik mikro dengan tingkat resolusi 100 detik igrave. IP SLA baru-baru ini menambahkan dukungan untuk aliran uji multicast IP, yang dapat mengukur latency data pasar. Topologi jaringan yang khas ditunjukkan pada Gambar 11 dengan router bayangan IP, sumber, dan responden IP SLA. Gambar 11 Layanan Komputasi Deployment IP SLA Layanan komputasi mencakup berbagai teknologi dengan tujuan menghilangkan kemacetan memori dan CPU yang dibuat oleh pemrosesan paket jaringan. Aplikasi perdagangan mengkonsumsi volume data pasar yang tinggi dan server harus mendedikasikan sumber daya untuk memproses lalu lintas jaringan alih-alih pemrosesan aplikasi. Pengolahan transportasi Dengan kecepatan tinggi, pemrosesan paket jaringan dapat mengkonsumsi sejumlah besar siklus CPU server dan memori. Aturan praktis yang ditetapkan menyatakan bahwa bandwidth jaringan 1Gbps memerlukan 1 GHz kapasitas prosesor (sumber kertas putih Intel pada percepatan IO inteltechnologyioacceleration306517.pdf). Penyuntingan penyangga menengah Dalam implementasi stack jaringan konvensional, data perlu disalin oleh CPU antara buffer jaringan dan buffer aplikasi. Overhead ini diperparah oleh fakta bahwa kecepatan memori tidak mengalami kenaikan kecepatan CPU. Sebagai contoh, prosesor seperti Intel Xeon mendekati 4 GHz, sementara chip RAM berkisar sekitar 400MHz (untuk memori DDR 3200) (sumber Intel inteltechnologyioacceleration306517.pdf). Peralihan konteks Setiap kali paket individual perlu diproses, CPU melakukan peralihan konteks dari konteks aplikasi ke konteks lalu lintas jaringan. Overhead ini bisa dikurangi jika switch hanya terjadi bila seluruh buffer aplikasi selesai. Gambar 12 Sumber Overhead di Server Data Center Mesin Offload TCP (TOE) Siklus prosesor pengangkut muatan ke NIC. Memindahkan protokol TCPIP menumpuk salinan buffer dari memori sistem ke memori NIC. Remote Direct Memory Access (RDMA) Memungkinkan adapter jaringan untuk mentransfer data secara langsung dari aplikasi ke aplikasi tanpa melibatkan sistem operasi. Menghilangkan salinan penyangga intermediate dan aplikasi (konsumsi bandwidth memori). Kernel bypass Akses langsung tingkat pengguna ke perangkat keras. Secara dramatis mengurangi switch konteks aplikasi. Gambar 13 RDMA dan Kernel Bypass InfiniBand adalah link komunikasi serial bidirectional point-to-point (switched fabric) yang mengimplementasikan RDMA, di antara fitur lainnya. Cisco menawarkan switch InfiniBand, Server Fabric Switch (SFS): ciscoapplicationpdfenusguestnetsolns500c643cdccont0900aecd804c35cb.pdf. Gambar 14 Aplikasi SFS Deployment Trading tipikal mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengurangan variabilitas latency dan latency, seperti yang dibuktikan dengan tes yang dilakukan dengan Penangan Feed SFS dan Wombat oleh Stac Research: Layanan Virtualisasi Aplikasi Menggabungkan aplikasi dari perangkat keras OS dan server yang mendasarinya. Memungkinkan mereka untuk menjalankan layanan jaringan. Satu aplikasi dapat dijalankan secara paralel di beberapa server, atau beberapa aplikasi dapat dijalankan di server yang sama, karena alokasi sumber daya terbaik ditentukan. Desoupling ini memungkinkan penyeimbangan beban dan pemulihan bencana yang lebih baik untuk strategi kelanjutan bisnis. Proses mengalokasikan ulang sumber daya komputasi ke aplikasi bersifat dinamis. Dengan menggunakan sistem virtualisasi aplikasi seperti Data Synapses GridServer, aplikasi dapat bermigrasi, menggunakan kebijakan yang telah dikonfigurasi sebelumnya, ke server yang kurang dimanfaatkan dalam proses penawaran-permintaan-permintaan (wwwworkworldsupp2005ndc1022105virtual.htmlpage2). Ada banyak keuntungan bisnis bagi perusahaan keuangan yang menerapkan virtualisasi aplikasi: Waktu lebih cepat untuk memasarkan produk dan layanan baru Integrasi perusahaan yang lebih cepat setelah aktivitas merger dan akuisisi Meningkatkan ketersediaan aplikasi Distribusi beban kerja yang lebih baik, yang menciptakan ruang kerja quothead roomquot untuk memproses lonjakan volume perdagangan Operasional Efisiensi dan pengendalian Pengurangan dalam kompleksitas TI Saat ini, virtualisasi aplikasi tidak digunakan dalam trading front office. Salah satu use-case adalah pemodelan risiko, seperti simulasi Monte Carlo. Seiring perkembangan teknologi, dapat dibayangkan bahwa beberapa platform perdagangan akan menerapkannya. Layanan Virtualisasi Data Untuk berbagi sumber daya secara efektif di seluruh aplikasi perusahaan terdistribusi, perusahaan harus dapat memanfaatkan data di berbagai sumber secara real-time sekaligus memastikan integritas data. Dengan solusi dari vendor perangkat lunak virtualisasi data seperti Gemstone atau Tangosol (sekarang Oracle), perusahaan keuangan dapat mengakses sumber data heterogen sebagai citra sistem tunggal yang memungkinkan konektivitas antara proses bisnis dan akses aplikasi yang tak terkendali ke cache terdistribusi. Hasil akhirnya adalah semua pengguna memiliki akses instan ke sumber data ini di jaringan terdistribusi (gridtoday030210101061.html). Ini disebut grid data dan merupakan langkah pertama dalam proses pembuatan Gartner yang disebut Extreme Transaction Processing (XTP) (gartnerDisplayDocumentrefgsearchampid500947). Teknologi seperti virtualisasi data dan aplikasi memungkinkan perusahaan keuangan melakukan analisis kompleks real-time, aplikasi berbasis acara, dan alokasi sumber daya dinamis. One example of data virtualization in action is a global order book application. An order book is the repository of active orders that is published by the exchange or other market makers. A global order book aggregates orders from around the world from markets that operate independently. The biggest challenge for the application is scalability over WAN connectivity because it has to maintain state. Todays data grids are localized in data centers connected by Metro Area Networks (MAN). This is mainly because the applications themselves have limitsthey have been developed without the WAN in mind. Figure 15 GemStone GemFire Distributed Caching Before data virtualization, applications used database clustering for failover and scalability. This solution is limited by the performance of the underlying database. Failover is slower because the data is committed to disc. With data grids, the data which is part of the active state is cached in memory, which reduces drastically the failover time. Scaling the data grid means just adding more distributed resources, providing a more deterministic performance compared to a database cluster. Multicast Service Market data delivery is a perfect example of an application that needs to deliver the same data stream to hundreds and potentially thousands of end users. Market data services have been implemented with TCP or UDP broadcast as the network layer, but those implementations have limited scalability. Using TCP requires a separate socket and sliding window on the server for each recipient. UDP broadcast requires a separate copy of the stream for each destination subnet. Both of these methods exhaust the resources of the servers and the network. The server side must transmit and service each of the streams individually, which requires larger and larger server farms. On the network side, the required bandwidth for the application increases in a linear fashion. For example, to send a 1 Mbps stream to 1000recipients using TCP requires 1 Gbps of bandwidth. IP multicast is the only way to scale market data delivery. To deliver a 1 Mbps stream to 1000 recipients, IP multicast would require 1 Mbps. The stream can be delivered by as few as two serversone primary and one backup for redundancy. There are two main phases of market data delivery to the end user. In the first phase, the data stream must be brought from the exchange into the brokerages network. Typically the feeds are terminated in a data center on the customer premise. The feeds are then processed by a feed handler, which may normalize the data stream into a common format and then republish into the application messaging servers in the data center. The second phase involves injecting the data stream into the application messaging bus which feeds the core infrastructure of the trading applications. The large brokerage houses have thousands of applications that use the market data streams for various purposes, such as live trades, long term trending, arbitrage, etc. Many of these applications listen to the feeds and then republish their own analytical and derivative information. For example, a brokerage may compare the prices of CSCO to the option prices of CSCO on another exchange and then publish ratings which a different application may monitor to determine how much they are out of synchronization. Figure 16 Market Data Distribution Players The delivery of these data streams is typically over a reliable multicast transport protocol, traditionally Tibco Rendezvous. Tibco RV operates in a publish and subscribe environment. Each financial instrument is given a subject name, such as CSCO.last. Each application server can request the individual instruments of interest by their subject name and receive just a that subset of the information. This is called subject-based forwarding or filtering. Subject-based filtering is patented by Tibco. A distinction should be made between the first and second phases of market data delivery. The delivery of market data from the exchange to the brokerage is mostly a one-to-many application. The only exception to the unidirectional nature of market data may be retransmission requests, which are usually sent using unicast. The trading applications, however, are definitely many-to-many applications and may interact with the exchanges to place orders. Figure 17 Market Data Architecture Design Issues Number of GroupsChannels to Use Many application developers consider using thousand of multicast groups to give them the ability to divide up products or instruments into small buckets. Normally these applications send many small messages as part of their information bus. Usually several messages are sent in each packet that are received by many users. Sending fewer messages in each packet increases the overhead necessary for each message. In the extreme case, sending only one message in each packet quickly reaches the point of diminishing returnsthere is more overhead sent than actual data. Application developers must find a reasonable compromise between the number of groups and breaking up their products into logical buckets. Consider, for example, the Nasdaq Quotation Dissemination Service (NQDS). The instruments are broken up alphabetically: This approach allows for straight forward networkapplication management, but does not necessarily allow for optimized bandwidth utilization for most users. A user of NQDS that is interested in technology stocks, and would like to subscribe to just CSCO and INTL, would have to pull down all the data for the first two groups of NQDS. Understanding the way users pull down the data and then organize it into appropriate logical groups optimizes the bandwidth for each user. In many market data applications, optimizing the data organization would be of limited value. Typically customers bring in all data into a few machines and filter the instruments. Using more groups is just more overhead for the stack and does not help the customers conserve bandwidth. Another approach might be to keep the groups down to a minimum level and use UDP port numbers to further differentiate if necessary. The other extreme would be to use just one multicast group for the entire application and then have the end user filter the data. In some situations this may be sufficient. Intermittent Sources A common issue with market data applications are servers that send data to a multicast group and then go silent for more than 3.5 minutes. These intermittent sources may cause trashing of state on the network and can introduce packet loss during the window of time when soft state and then hardware shorts are being created. PIM-Bidir or PIM-SSM The first and best solution for intermittent sources is to use PIM-Bidir for many-to-many applications and PIM-SSM for one-to-many applications. Both of these optimizations of the PIM protocol do not have any data-driven events in creating forwarding state. That means that as long as the receivers are subscribed to the streams, the network has the forwarding state created in the hardware switching path. Intermittent sources are not an issue with PIM-Bidir and PIM-SSM. Null Packets In PIM-SM environments a common method to make sure forwarding state is created is to send a burst of null packets to the multicast group before the actual data stream. The application must efficiently ignore these null data packets to ensure it does not affect performance. The sources must only send the burst of packets if they have been silent for more than 3 minutes. A good practice is to send the burst if the source is silent for more than a minute. Many financials send out an initial burst of traffic in the morning and then all well-behaved sources do not have problems. Periodic Keepalives or Heartbeats An alternative approach for PIM-SM environments is for sources to send periodic heartbeat messages to the multicast groups. This is a similar approach to the null packets, but the packets can be sent on a regular timer so that the forwarding state never expires. S,G Expiry Timer Finally, Cisco has made a modification to the operation of the S,G expiry timer in IOS. There is now a CLI knob to allow the state for a S,G to stay alive for hours without any traffic being sent. The (S,G) expiry timer is configurable. This approach should be considered a workaround until PIM-Bidir or PIM-SSM is deployed or the application is fixed. RTCP Feedback A common issue with real time voice and video applications that use RTP is the use of RTCP feedback traffic. Unnecessary use of the feedback option can create excessive multicast state in the network. If the RTCP traffic is not required by the application it should be avoided. Fast Producers and Slow Consumers Today many servers providing market data are attached at Gigabit speeds, while the receivers are attached at different speeds, usually 100Mbps. This creates the potential for receivers to drop packets and request re-transmissions, which creates more traffic that the slowest consumers cannot handle, continuing the vicious circle. The solution needs to be some type of access control in the application that limits the amount of data that one host can request. QoS and other network functions can mitigate the problem, but ultimately the subscriptions need to be managed in the application. Tibco Heartbeats TibcoRV has had the ability to use IP multicast for the heartbeat between the TICs for many years. However, there are some brokerage houses that are still using very old versions of TibcoRV that use UDP broadcast support for the resiliency. This limitation is often cited as a reason to maintain a Layer 2 infrastructure between TICs located in different data centers. These older versions of TibcoRV should be phased out in favor of the IP multicast supported versions. Multicast Forwarding Options PIM Sparse Mode The standard IP multicast forwarding protocol used today for market data delivery is PIM Sparse Mode. It is supported on all Cisco routers and switches and is well understood. PIM-SM can be used in all the network components from the exchange, FSP, and brokerage. There are, however, some long-standing issues and unnecessary complexity associated with a PIM-SM deployment that could be avoided by using PIM-Bidir and PIM-SSM. These are covered in the next sections. The main components of the PIM-SM implementation are: PIM Sparse Mode v2 Shared Tree (spt-threshold infinity) A design option in the brokerage or in the exchange.What drives mobile commerce. An empirical evaluation of the revised technology acceptance model Jen-Her Wu a. B. Author Vitae , Shu-Ching Wang a. c Author Vitae a Department of Information Management, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan b Institute of Health Care Management, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan c Department of Information Management, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung 811, Taiwan Accepted 24 July 2004, Available online 1 October 2004This study presents an extended technology acceptance model (TAM) that integrates innovation diffusion theory, perceived risk and cost into the TAM to investigate what determines user mobile commerce (MC) acceptance. The proposed model was empirically tested using data collected from a survey of MC consumers. The structural equation modeling technique was used to evaluate the causal model and confirmatory factor analysis was performed to examine the reliability and validity of the measurement model. Our findings indicated that all variables except perceived ease of use significantly affected usersrsquo behavioral intent. Among them, the compatibility had the most significant influence. Furthermore, a striking, and somewhat puzzling finding was the positive influence of perceived risk on behavioral intention to use. The implication of this work to both researchers and practitioners is discussed. Mobile commerce Technology acceptance model Innovation diffusion theory Perceived risk Cost Corresponding author. Tel. 886 7 525 2000 fax: 886 7 525 4799. Copyright copy 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Jen-Her Wu is professor of information management at National Sun Yat-Sen University. Prior to his doctoral study at the University of Kentucky, he received a BS degree in industrial design, earned an MS degree in computer science and worked as an engineer and manager in the manufacturing industry. Professor Wu teaches a variety of information management courses. He has published a book (Systems Analysis and Design) and more than 30 journal articles. His research articles have been published in Information amp Management . Decision Support Systems . International Journal of Technology Management . Computers in Human Behavior . Electronic Commerce Research and Applications . Expert Systems . Knowledge Acquisition . Journal of Computer Information Systems . and others . His current research interests include various aspects of information systems development and management, human computer interaction, and knowledge management. Shu-Ching Wang is doctoral student of information management at National Sun Yat-Sen University and instructor of information management at National Kaohsiung Marine University, Taiwan. She earned her BS and MS degrees in computer science. She has participated with Professor Wus research team for two years. Her research interests include e-commerce, e-healthcare and e-learning.Send us your news at newssystemdynamics.org. The SD Career Link page has several recently posted job listings. Society Member David Wheat Promoted to Full Professor of System Dynamics at the University of Bergen in Norway (February 24, 2017) For three decades, David was president of Wheat Resources Inc, a management consulting firm serving business and government clients. He received his PhD in System Dynamics at the University of Bergen, his masters degree in public policy from Harvard University, and his bachelors degree in political science at Texas Tech University. During the 1970s, he served at the White House as staff assistant to the President of the United States. David teaches the modeling process course and the policy design course and supervises student research in the international master8217s degree program in System Dynamics. His research focuses on demographic and economic issues, plus policy design research aimed at improving the methodology of System Dynamics modeling. Current research projects involve building dynamic economic modeling capacity at the National University of Kiev-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine, creating an SD-based macroeconomic model for Lithuania, and developing a macroeconomic forecasting model in collaboration with economists at the Bank of Lithuania. He also collaborates with researchers at the University of North Dakota on public health. David is also visiting professor of economics at ISM University of Management and Economics in Lithuania and adjunct professor of economics at Virginia Western College in the United States. He is past-president of the Economics Chapter of the System Dynamics Society, and has conducted guest lectures in Africa, Europe, and North and South America. Congratulations to David On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, we wish you the best of luck in your new position. ONE MONTH remains to submit your System Dynamics work to the International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, to be held in Cambridge, Massachusetts USA July 16 8211 20, 2017. The submission deadline is MARCH 22. Please review the submission guidelines and instructions. Become a part of this engaging and diverse event by submitting your work today Submissions are arriving through the Web Portal daily All conference paper and workshop submissions require that each author has an author ID. Please ask your co-authors to register directly at the Societys Web Portal this week to ensure correct author information. It is free to register and only takes a moment. It is the contact authors responsibility to confirm all submission information is complete. To learn more about the conference, please visit the conference website. Andrew Jones, Society member and co-director of Climate Interactive, will give a presentation on global climate change followed by an open question-and-answer session at University of North Carolina Asheville on February 23rd. Drews discussion, Top 10 Reasons for Hope for Our Climate, will run from 6-7:30 p.m. at UNC Ashevilles Highsmith Union, in the Swannanoa River Room 104. This event is sponsored by the Student Environmental Center, a student organization at UNC Asheville, and is free and open to everyone. For additional details, see the UNC Asheville website . The System Dynamics Student Chapter invites you to send us your funniest stock and flow diagram (SFD) or causal loop diagram (CLD) designs in a high resolution image. The competition is open to everyone, both students and senior system dynamicists alike. The only requirement for the contest is that the design needs to fit on a t-shirt. Please send your design to phdcolloquium-at systemdynamics.org or submit through the PhD Colloquium Facebook page as a post or private message. The winner will receive a sampling of free SDC merchandise with their winning design, as well as all the glory and attention that the Student Chapter can bestow, which will guarantee a celebrity status throughout the conference week8230and beyond We have created a Conference Roommate Board on an unlisted LinkedIn page to help participants find roommates. This group is only open to 2017 ISDC Conference or Summer School participants who are seeking a roommate. Please contact our office to request an invitation to join this group. The conference website has a link to the Hyatt Reservation Form with a list of room and cost details. The Hyatt Regency Cambridge has offered a special student rate-get the most affordable option by sharing the student rate with a roommate The deadline for hotel room reservations is June 22, 2017. If you are planning to submit a paper for the 2017 ISDC, check out these helpful articles from long-time reviewer, Tom Fiddaman, with tips on writing good System Dynamics Conference papers. 8220Writing an SD Conference Paper8221 and 8220Writing a good system dynamics paper II 8221 are available on the Submissions page of the Societys conference website. Papers should be submitted through the web portal by the March 22 deadline. Acceptance notices will be sent by May 11, 2017. Call for 2017 Lupina Young Researchers Award Nominations (February 13, 2017) FYI Student and Recent Graduate (5 years) Presenters The Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) of the System Dynamics Society is pleased to present the Lupina Young Researchers Award for work that focuses on dynamic phenomena in health systems and problems. This self-nominated award is sponsored by the Lupina Foundation of Ontario, Canada. The Lupina Award will be given to people at early stages of their careers to encourage them to do further work in Health System Dynamics. The self-nomination procedure should be followed when submitting your paper. The deadline for submissions is March 22nd. Details of the award can be found on the Societys website. Ventana Systems has recently released Ventity 1.0. Ventity makes is easier to represent systems with irregular, changing structure and data, providing clean separation of the model from the data. Some of the softwares features include: modularity and object orientation, strong data-model separation, dynamic creation and deletion of model components and relationships, support for team collaboration and advanced charting. Ventitys capabilities work to complement Vensim software. The two programs are developed in parallel and are available as a bundle. To learn more about Ventity visit Ventana Systems website. Dr. Eng. Stefano Armenia, the System Dynamics Societys VP Chapter Activities, has been recently appointed as Co-Editor of Kybernetes: The international journal of cybernetics, systems and management sciences . published by Emerald-Insight. The role of Editor in Chief has been taken up by Prof. Gandolfo Dominici, Scientific Director of the BSLab. Kybernetes has a new Editorial Board and a richly updated scopes, which are now focusing more on the social, organizational and managerial applications of cybernetics and systems thinking. For more information, please visit the journal8217s website. The article Learning and Education Experience in System Dynamics of Management Students: Case Studies, by Society members Miroljub Kljaji. Andrej kraba and their colleague Mirjana Kljaji Bortnar, was published in the International Journal of Decision Support System Technology . In the article, the authors discuss their research, stating This paper describes experiences in the teaching of a Modelling and simulation course for students of management sciences at the Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Maribor Slovenia. Our course consists of continuous simulation based on systems dynamics and discrete event simulation DES. The course is in the 3rd year, and students have already taken courses from mathematics, statistics, theory of systems, as well as organizational and economic courses. The final grade for the course is derived from the students project and written exam. In this paper, we will discuss methods of teaching SD and its impact on the students performance (final grade). The full article is available on the IGI Global website. Earlier this month, isee systems announced the release of new updates in Stella Architect 1.2. The improved features of the software include: improved data manager, better functionality of importing external runs, parameter control windows updates, model view improvements and animation, the addition of divide 0 operator, preserving graphs and tables and circularity checking. To learn more about the new features visit isee systems website. The article Hazhir Rahmandad: Applying System Dynamics to Social Challenges was published on February 6, 2017, on The Huffington Post website. The article is part of a series of interviews by the Iranian Americans Contribution Project featuring distinguished Iranian-Americans who have made major impacts in their professional fields. The article covers Hazirs biographical information before delving into specific questions about his start in engineering, his current research work, and concluding with Hazirs thoughts on being Iranian-American. Hazir, an associate professor of System Dynamics at MIT Sloan School of Management, was the 2015 Jay W. Forrester Award winner and currently serves the Society as a Workshop Chair for the 2017 ISDC. Please see the full article on the Huffington Post website. On the Societys website under the category of What is SD youll find a new section called Award Winning Applications of System Dynamics . These award winning applications of SD are linked to our Case Repository pages and the new Commercial Applications of System Dynamics as Oral Histories page. This new page will feature a collection of short videos in which senior modelers narrate the story of high impact commercial applications of System Dynamics, providing a compliment to written material available in the Case Repository. In the fall and winter of 2016, Ken Cooper visited the System Dynamics Society home office to film a series of videos narrating several high impact and more interesting commercial applications from his distinguished career. We are pleased to announce Kens first video, the Litton Industries Case. is available now on our website. Additional videos will be released in following weeks, so check back soon to hear more interesting stories about award winning SD applications News from the Korea Chapter (February 7, 2017) On January 31st, following the celebration of the Lunar New Year8217s Day, a special open lecture for System Dynamics was held in Ewha Womans University in Seoul, South Korea. Attendance exceeded expectations, as more than fifty participants including high school students and executives of companies participated in this event. Professor Dong-Hwan Kim, the former president of Korean System Dynamics Society (2010-2012), gave a two hour high energy lecture. The Korea Chapter has also announced that the 2017 winter conference of Korean System Dynamics will be held in the same place, Ewha Womans University, on February 25th. On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, we wish the Korea Chapter continued success The ReThink Health website, sponsored by the Rippel Foundation, features the editorial. Beware unintended consequences: what the ReThink Health model tells us about the impact of President Trumps policies, by the foundations President and CEO, Laura Landy. The editorial is based on a white paper by Jack Homer, which analyzes potential impacts on US health of four areas where policy reversal under Trump seems possible: health insurance, job growth, environmental regulation, and community-minded law enforcement. The SD model is used to estimate impacts on morbidity, mortality, worker productivity, and health care costs from 2017 to 2029, assuming that the policy reversals remain in place for that long. When all four of the reversals are combined, the first three outcomes are worsened by 3 to 4 percentage points over the 12 years. Health care costs are somewhat reducedbut only because access to needed care has been curtailed. On a more optimistic note, the ReThink Health model was also used to analyze constructive policies for regional health systems, in an article published in Health Affairs . a leading health policy journal, earlier in 2016. The University of Bergen website news page features the article EU funding for climate dynamics project, written by Sverre Ole Drnen. The article highlights the latest research project of Birgit Kopainsky, a System Dynamics researcher from the Department of Geography at the University of Bergen and Society member. The project focuses on the sustainability and resilience in European agriculture systems and is coordinated by Wageningen University in the Netherlands. The project, named SURE-Farm (Towards SUstainable and REsilient EU FARMing systems), has received 4.8 million Euros from the EUs Horizon 2020 program. In the article, Birgit explains, The SURE-Farm project will assess management tools to improve the economic, environmental and social resilience of European farms. The idea is to find opportunities to create a more sustainable agricultural industry. The full article is available on the University of Bergens website. Research work involving System Dynamics at service of sustainability, has recently been published in Journal for Cleaner Production . In a description of the journals thirty-five articles, Karl-Henrik Robrt, author and co-editor of this special issue of the Journal of Cleaner Production . writes The focus of the special volume is on science at service of systematic leadership towards sustainability. The knowledge captured in this special volume helps leaders understand what sustainability is, i.e. how to define it, and to operationalize it in a systematic and strategic way in any arena or organization and across disciplines and sectors. One of the thirty-five articles, Boundary matters: the potential of system dynamics to support sustainability by Ehsan Nabavi, Katherine Daniell, and Husain Najafi, discusses how the use of System Dynamics improves understanding and supports sustainability. In the abstract the authors conclude, The paper also discusses how and why System Dynamics needs to be used by analysts in a more complete manner (i.e. engaging qualitative, quantitative, and participatory approaches) to ensure that in any given applied case, the models, and the judgements underpinning their development, are effectively embedded in societal and political contexts that allow their use for supporting sustainability. This article and the full journal are accessible on the Science Direct website. Papers submitted to the 2017 ISDC are classified into one of fourteen threads. Among the threads at the conference this year is the Information and Knowledge Thread. This thread relates to the dynamics of information and knowledge including knowledge management, information systems, social network analysis, research and development, invention, and innovation. The chairs for the Information and Knowledge Thread are members Christian Kampmann, Associate Professor at Copenhagen Business School, and Gnen Yucel, Associate Professor at the Bogazii University and the 2014 Dana Meadows Award winner. Call for Papers: 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (February 2, 2017) The Web Portal is now open to accept paper submissions as well as proposals for workshops and tutorials to be presented at the International System Dynamics Conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts from July 16-20, 2017. This year marks the 60th anniversary of the founding of the field of System Dynamics. System Dynamics is used around the world, from K-12 classrooms through doctoral programs, in scholarly research across many disciplines, and in applications from organizational change to climate change, from medicine to management. The conference will celebrate the accomplishments of the past six decades and explore future directions by showcasing the best work in dynamic modeling being done today. For a detailed list and descriptions of conference session topics, visit Threads for 2017 website. The submission deadline is March 22nd. For more information, please visit Call for Papers website. Member Article in the Journal Mathematics Enthusiast (January 31, 2017) The research article Reorganizing Algebraic Thinking: An Introduction to Dynamic System Modeling, by Society member Diana Fisher, has been published in the journal Mathematics Enthusiast . The article presents the idea of introducing System Dynamics modeling into the middle school or high school level algebra class. In the abstract Diana explains, In the body of the paper, a nested sequence of simple bank account examples, increasing in complexity, is used to demonstrate a comparison between using a closed form approach and using Stella to mathematize each situation. The comparison, showing equivalent recursive equations, closed form equations, and Stella modeling diagrams, is designed to give the reader (algebra teacher, mathematics education decision-maker, researcher, or whomever) an accessible introduction to understanding Stella model diagrams and the mathematical engine operating under the hood of the software. Diana concludes by discussing the advantages of students utilizing modeling software and the limitations of traditional math curriculum. The full article is available through the Scholar Works University of Montana website. Call for 2017 Dana Meadows Award Nominations (January 26, 2017) Attention Student Presenters: The Societys Dana Meadows Award (DMA) symbolizes the Societys commitment to students by recognizing the very best student work. It also honors, in an enduring way, the life and work of Dana Meadows. The Dana Meadow Award is a self-nominated award given to outstanding papers authored by students that are presenting at the conference. The self-nomination procedure should be followed when submitting your conference paper. The Web Portal will open for submissions on February 2nd and are due by the March 22nd deadline. More information about Dana Meadows, the Dana Meadow Award, and detailed submission guidelines can be found on our website. Winter Policy Council Meeting: March 16 in Cambridge, Massachusetts (January 26, 2017) The Policy Council of the System Dynamics Society will meet for the Winter Meeting on March 16 at 11:00 AM. President Len Malczynski will preside over the meeting. The meeting will be held at the Hyatt Regency Cambridge. As stated in the Bylaws, the Policy Council shall meet as a separate body, electronically or in person, at least twice each year, once at the annual international conference and once during the first fiscal quarter of the year. We welcome the new and returning PC officers and members and thank those who have fulfilled their terms. Please see the e-brochure Meet the Officers and Members of the Policy Council . Advance reservations are required for attendees please contact the Society office. All past Policy Council Meeting minutes are archived on the Society website. and can be found using Governance menu item. Society member Ellis Ballard has accepted a new position as the Associate Director of the Brown Schools Social System Design Lab at Washington University in St. Louis. Ellis, who received his Masters of Public Health and Masters of Social Work from the Brown School, has taught Community Based System Dynamics and has designed and led group model building workshops. He has also applied these SD approaches in his research and practice involving health equity and human rights issues in low and middle income countries. Founding Director of the Social System Design Lab, Peter Hovmand notes During his time in the Social System Design Lab, Ellis has made significant contributions to the lab and overall direction, and developed a management style that students, faculty, staff, and community partners have all come to value and enjoy. Ellis brings with him a terrific spirit of positive energy, passion for advancing group model building practice and system dynamics, exceptional management skills, and commitment to social justice. On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, congratulations to Ellis The article Do you think fake news can be killed with the truth Think again, by Sharon Pian Chan and Andre Alfred, which appeared on the website of ART marketing. used System Dynamics to analyze data regarding fake news. Chan and Alfred note We decided to combine our engineering and journalism backgrounds to do a deeper dive on how fake news feeds on itself using systems thinking, a tool we have been studying at MIT the past year. The authors give credit to Society members and MIT System Dynamics Professors, John Sterman and Nelson Repenning for their feedback. The systems map was created using Vensim software. The authors describe this data, reporting When we add the causal loop diagrams to the stock flow, we can see the relationship between the demand for partisan news sources, Facebook filtering, confirmation bias and how the system feeds on itself to drive the creation of fake news. The authors seek to explore solutions in their next post and request feedback. Please see the full article for details about the data and for the authors contact information. On January 12, member and Climate Interactive co-director, Andrew Jones spoke with Jeremy Loeb on Western North Carolina Public Radio WCQS. In the interview, Andrew talks about climate issues in the wake of the election of Donald Trump. In regards to the publics concerns about what direction the new administration will take on climate change, Andrew says this could be the thing that rallies people to be much more engaged in something that has always required citizen action. Loeb also brought up The New York Times digital story which used data provided by the Climate Interactive. The graphic designers used the climate data in an interesting, interactive way that engages people. The fact that there is a growing concern and conversation on climate gives hope. Andrew talks about getting people interested and involved in a movement, as he phrased it in the interview I see people who are coming together to demand better by pulling together. To listen to the full interview. please visit the website of WCQS. The 2017 ISDC celebrates six decades of accomplishments and explores the future by showcasing the best work in dynamic modeling being done today. The Awards Ceremonies of the conference are an opportunity to recognize the achievements of individuals in the field. We invite you to consider nominating a colleague or yourself for outstanding work in the field of System Dynamics. Awards information can be found on the conference website. There you will find nomination criteria, submission due dates and detailed descriptions for each of the following awards: Jay Wright Forrester Award, System Dynamics Application Award, Dana Meadows Award, Lupina Young Researchers Award, and the Barry Richmond Award. We look forward to honoring the award winners of 2017. See you this summer in Cambridge The System Dynamics Society is pleased to announce that registration for the 35 th International System Dynamics Conference is now open. Hosted by the System Dynamics Group at MIT Sloan School of Management, the conference will be held at the Hyatt Regency in Cambridge, Massachusetts from July 16-20, 2017. We invite you to take part in this 60 th anniversary celebration as the 2017 ISDC is expected to be the largest-ever gathering of system dynamicists Additional events include a pre-conference System Dynamics Summer School (July 12-14) and the PhD Colloquium (July 20 th ). Join us for an exciting lineup of presentations, workshops, learning opportunities and networking. For details and registration information, please visit the conference website. See a list of 2017 Conference Sponsors. In a recent blog article on the Supply Chain Management Review website, Larry Lapide dedicates his column, an annual update on oil and the supply chain, to the memory of Jay W. Forrester. Lapide writes, Some managers will know who he was and what he accomplished regarding supply chain management. For others, they should think of the educational beer game that they have most likely played. It simulates how a lack of downstream and upstream information causes excess and volatile inventories to be held by trading partners all along a supply chain. Second, regarding oil he was the father of System Dynamics that dealt with using simulation to understand big systems, such as the impact of CO2 emissions on the global environment. Lapide notes that Jays books Urban Dynamics and World Dynamics led to the models that started the field of global modeling and led to the models we read about today simulating climate changes and supporting the need to limit CO2 emissions by reducing the use of carbon-based energy. Hence, Forresters relevance to this oil update. The full article can be read on the Supply Chain Management Website. The 2017 Conference Program Co-chairs wish you a healthy and productive new year and are looking forward to seeing you at ISDC 2017 this summer, here in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This year we celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the field of System Dynamics. Whereas the 50th anniversary conference celebrated the achievements of our first half-century, for this 60th anniversary conference we seek to construct a program that points the way to the future by showcasing the best work in dynamic modeling being done today. We will also celebrate the life of Jay W. Forrester, the founder of the field of System Dynamics, who passed away in November. Stay tuned for details. Submissions will be accepted from February 2 to March 22. We welcome studies of dynamic phenomena based on qualitative or quantitative field study, laboratory or field experiments, and other data sources and methods. We particularly welcome work that provides new approaches to important theoretical and methodological issues, application areas, modeling practice, pedagogy, empirical methods and integration of different approaches to modeling the dynamics of complex systems. Appropriate contributions could advance methodology, develop a novel theory to explain important dynamic phenomena, test existing theories or show real-world impact. If the work addresses an important issue, takes a dynamic, endogenous perspective, captures the behavioral decision making of the actors in the system, is rigorously grounded in data, and is fully documented and replicable, we welcome it for consideration, no matter what software or modeling formalisms are used. Whatever your focus, please ensure that your paper meets the high standards for quality we seek in our field. Be sure your paper: 8211 addresses an important issue, 8211 appropriately assesses and critically reviews the relevant literature, 8211 is clearly written, 8211 clearly presents your model, analysis, and results, 8211 follows the full documentation standards for the System Dynamics Review, including submittal of the actual model wherever possible, Finally, please make sure the title of your paper describes the key issue or contribution. IMPORTANT NOTE: please avoid a title such as Your Title: A System Dynamics Approach (or similar). Focus your title on the substance of your study, not the method you are using. Full title details can be found at the time of submission on the Paper Information for Submission Page in the Web Portal. For additional information, please contact the Conference Program Co-chairs, John Sterman and Nelson Repenning . This years topic for the PhD Colloquium is Building Capacity. The format will be brand new this year and will turn the colloquium into a learning environment where students can fully interact with and make use of the knowledge held by the senior system dynamicists who are attending. This year the colloquium will feature not only the traditional PhD plenaries and posters, but also two new exciting sessions in the format of Open Space and World Caf. In addition, the successful Angel Advisor program will return. Both PhD and Master students are encouraged to submit their work, and the call for student papers is already out and can be found at the colloquiums brand new Facebook page . Senior system dynamicists will receive an invitation to participate at this years colloquium in a few weeks time. For now, more information about the new events this year can be found at the link above. See you all in Cambridge Society member Raafat Zaini has successfully defended his dissertation titled 8220Modeling Manifest and Latent Structures in a University: Understanding Resource and Dissent Dynamics8221 in the System Dynamics Ph.D. program at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Raafat would like to thank his Ph.D. program committee: K. Saeed (chair), M. Elmes, and O. Pavlov, for their support. Raafats research interest is in the area of organizational dynamics and innovation sustainability with a focus on R038D organizations and higher education institutions. His current work involves the analysis and dynamic modeling of universities strategies, and investigating the role of dissent in organizational innovation climate. Raafat won the Graduate Innovation Exchange Award for Ph.D. research in social science and business at WPI in 2013 and 2014, and served as the president of WPI System Dynamics club in 2016. While pursuing his Ph.D. Raafat has worked as a researcher at MIT Sociotechnical Systems Research Center and consulted for the Advance Management Group. Raafat served as a co-chair of the System Dynamics Society business special interest group 2013-15, and is currently a member of the Societys Policy Council. On behalf of the Society, congratulations to Dr. Zaini New Ph.D. SDS Member Saeed Langarudi (January 06, 2017) Society member Saeed Pourmasoumui Langarudi has successfully defended his dissertation titled 8220Political Economy of Resource Dependent Nations: A System Dynamics Approach8221 in the System Dynamics Ph.D. program at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Saeed is grateful to his Ph.D. committee: Dr. Michael Radzicki (chair), Dr. Alexander Smith, and Dr. Rajib Mallick, for their support. He would also like to acknowledge valuable comments and feedback he received on his doctoral work from participants of the Collective Learning Meetings at WPI8217s System Dynamics Club. His deepest gratitude goes to Professors Khalid Saeed and Isa Bar-On for their incredible support, encouragement, and mentorship. He is also thankful to Professors Homa Katouzian and Ali Mashayekhi for their precious comments and advice. Saeed is now a Post Doctoral Research Scientist at the New Mexico State University8217s Department of Animal 038 Range Sciences. On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, congratulations to Dr. Langarudi Symposium organizers of ABM 2017: Agent-Based Models in the Social, Human-Environment, and Life Sciences, have announced a call for papers. The symposium, sponsored by the National Science Foundation, will be held in San Diego, California, from April 20-22, 2017. The goal of this symposium is to transform the science, technology, and application of agent-based models in the context of social, human-environment, and life sciences. Abstracts of presentations and posters should be submitted by the January 31 st deadline. Students, postdocs and assistant professors may apply for an ABM Professional Enhancement Awards to cover expenses related to attending the symposium. Additional details about ABM 2017 and submission guidelines can be found on the symposium website . Strategy Dynamics is now combining a new instructor led online course on building living business models with their existing strategy dynamics business frameworks course. The course is designed to guide the non-specialist through the process of building working, quantified business models. The course is divided into two parts: Core Structures and Models, and Extension Frameworks and Models. The core frameworks course starts on January 9 th. For additional details and registration information, please visit the Strategy Dynamics website. The Journal of Simulation editors have announced a call for papers for a special issue on System Dynamics. The guest editors for the special issue are Sally Brailsford and Society members Martin Kunc and John Morecroft. In an effort to connect System Dynamic modelling to other simulation methods, the journal is interested in submissions that discuss: mode conceptualization, model development and testing, policy development, and other areas. Please read the call for papers on the Springer website for details. The deadline for submission of papers is March 31 st. 2017. SD Article on Mental Health Intervention (January 04, 2017) The research article titled Community based system dynamic as an approach for understanding and acting on messy problems: a case study for global mental health intervention in Afghanistan, by Society members Ellis Ballard and Peter Hovmand, along with their colleagues Parul Bakhshi and Jean-Francois Trani, was published by BioMed Central in a recent issue of the Conflict and Health journal. The article explores the factors that prevent persons with mental illness from using available health care services. Describing the methods used, the authors stated We employed community based system dynamics to examine interactions between multiple factors and actors to examine the problem of persistently low service utilization for people with mental illness. Group model building sessions, designed based on a series of scripts and led by three facilitators, took place with NGO staff members in Mazar-I-Sharif in July 2014 and in Kabul in February 2015. The full article is available on the BioMed Central website. The System Dynamics Club at WPI, founded by Professor Oleg Pavlov, hosts lectures, discussions, games and other social events to promote SD to the community of WPI and Worcester College Consortium. Among these events, is the Collective Learning Meeting (CLM). The CLMs are informal meetings to share work in progress, invite guest speakers on specific topics, or dive deep into 8220classic8221 texts or videos (e.g. Jay Forrester8217s MIT series or Meadows lectures on games.) The CLMs are held weekly by the WPI SD Club on site and broadcasted online over Google hangout. All are welcome to join or present. The WPI SD Club has recently announced new leadership: Timothy Clancy (President), Christine Tang (VP), Shia Cao (Treasure). The outgoing team includes: Raafat Zaini (President), Saeed Langarudi (VP), Christine Tang (Treasurer). For more information about the WPI SD Club and the CLMs, please visit their website . On December 16th, 2016, the WPI SD Club participated in the 33rd System Dynamics Colloquium at the University at Albany. (See photo below.) The Colloquium, with students and faculty from WPI, MIT and UAlbany, provides the attendees with an amazing opportunity to meet and exchange ideas with faculty members, students, and practitioners of System Dynamics. System Thinking Webinar Series Starting in January Bridgeway Partners announced a six session webinar series titled Systems Thinking Practice. The courses, sponsored by isee systems, will begin on January 20, 2017, with subsequent classes on: February 3rd, March 3rd, March 17th, March 31st and April 14th. The courses will enable you to apply System Thinking principles and tools in real time to a complex problem in your own organization or community. The core text for the program is David Peter Strohs book Systems Thinking for Social Change: A Practical Guide for Solving Complex Problems, Avoiding Unintended Consequences, and Achieving Lasting Results (Chelsea Green, 2015). For a complete overview of the courses and registration information, please visit the isee systems website . isee systems has created a new option for student licenses to help with the increasing demand for student access to the software. Similar to university lab packs, the student packs are owned by the university and come with support, but the licenses can be installed directly on a students personal computer. Support is included with these licenses and enables the students to download and install the latest versions of the software while they have access to the license. Please visit the isee systems website for details. System Dynamics Modelling and Simulation . by Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad and Kusairi Mohamed, is now available on the Springer website. The book, featuring the essentials of System Dynamics and systems engineering, is useful as a textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses, and is an excellent reference guide for practitioners and researchers. The summary on the publishers website states, This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics Modelling and Simulation is available in hardcover or as an eBook on the Springer website. Member Hassan Qudrat-Ullah was appointed a Full Professor of Decision Sciences at the School of Administrative Studies, York University, Canada, in January, 2016. Dr. Hassan has over 18 years of teaching, research, industry, and consulting experience in the USA, Canada, Singapore, Norway, UK, Korea, China, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Colombia, Switzerland, Spain, and Pakistan. His research interests include dynamic decision making, sustainable energy policies, and System Dynamics modeling. Hassan teaches courses on quantitative methods, operations management, decision analysis, and systems thinking for management in the 21st century. He has received several teaching awards including the Recognition for Excellence in Teaching by the School of Administrative Studies for five consecutive years and the 2015 Doctoral Workshop Teaching Award for Excellence by Monarch Business School, Switzerland. Hassan is serving as the Editor-in-Chief of International Journal of Complexity in Applied Science and Technology . Associate Editor, International Journal of Global Energy Issues . appointed member of the Advisory and Editorial Board of Springer Complexity, USA, and director of board of Swiss Federation of Private Business Schools, Switzerland. On behalf of the Society, congratulations to Hassan The journal article Using dynamic models to support inferences of insider threat risk, by Elise Axelrad and Paul Sticha, was published in a recent issue of Computational and Mathematical Organizational Theory . In the abstract, the authors explain Two modeling approaches were integrated to address the problem of predicting the risk of an attack by a particular insider. We present a system dynamics model that incorporates psychological factors including personality, attitude and counterproductive behaviors to simulate the pathway to insider attack. Multiple runs of the model that sampled the population of possible personalities under different conditions resulted in simulated cases representing a wide range of employees of an organization. We then structured a Bayesian belief network to predict attack risk, incorporating important variables from the system dynamics model and learning the conditional probabilities from the simulated cases. The full article can be accessed on the Springer Link website. Dynaplan was announced the winner of the Business Supercharger Award at the People Analytics 2016 conference in London on November 22. With more than 300 delegates representing 220 companies from 30 countries, this annual conference is one of the largest HR analytics events in Europe. In a news article on their website, Dynaplan founder Magne Myrtviet states, We are proud to have received this award it reconfirms to us, as well as to our customers, that we are on the right track. Our journey started at the strategic level, where the impact of making the right decisions is the greatest. But the other levels of the maturity pyramid also brings value to workforce management. Dynaplan is continuing its innovative journey, expanding our technology and services into the areas of statistics and benchmarking as well. Additional details are available in the full article. The new version of Vensim 6.4E is available for download or purchase in the Vensim store. Some interesting new Vensim 6 features include: Significant upgrades to the Help system, including improved indexing and nearly 100 sample models illustrating the use of almost every built-in function Native Mac support (licenses are portable across platforms) GET DIRECT functions that can access spreadsheets and other delimited data files, like the GET XLS functions without the overhead of launching Excel The option of observing integer constraints in the ALLOCATE AVAILABLE function Great for managing allocation of discrete items like customers or aircraft Enhancements to the document tool and SyntheSim functionality with lookups in large models On-the-fly configuration of subscripts (arrays) with the GET DIRECT SUBSCRIPTS or GET ODBC SUBSCRIPTS functions Great for matching model detail to your data EXCEPT: statements that let you handle exceptions to subscripted equations more easily Ventana is also on track to release a beta version of 64-bit Vensim this month, available to Vensim P ro and DSS users current with their maintenance. The Vensim team is developing a major revisionupgrade with new capabilities and dramatic improvements for ease of use. One cool feature in the pipeline is Synthesim for sensitivity simulations, exploiting Vensims speed to make risk and uncertainty interactive. For quick turnaround help, visit the Vensim support forum. The forum now has over 2000 successfully answered queries, and also contains the archive of the SD mailing list. Among the many queries posted, a few recent topics include: setting calibration results into the model, reordering a matrix, and sensitivity simulation setup. The Creative Learning Exchange, a collaborative group of experienced systems thinking and System Dynamics practitionerseducators, invites you to participate in a short survey as a part of their research on where and how ST and SD are being used globally in pre-college education. The CLE hopes to collect information about what STSD tools you use, how you assess the effectiveness of student learning, and the impact STSD has had on your students learning. Please complete the survey by December 23, 2016. If you respond by December 16 and include your name and email in the appropriate survey questions, you will receive a 20 off coupon for one purchase at the Creative Learning Exchange Climate Interactive Provides Data for The New York Times Digital Story Society member and co-director of the Climate Interactive, Andrew Jones, has posted a blog article that discusses the data used in The New York Times digital story How Trump Can Influence Climate Change . The article, written by Jasmine C. Lee and Adam Pearce, uses models and analysis obtained from the Climate Interactive to illustrate how potential policy changes by a Trump administration would affect the goals of the Paris agreement. Jones post explains the analysis and provides references for the data that the Climate Interactive provided for the story. He states, The data we provided for this story pulls together several analyses from others (particularly LBNL) and some from ourselves (the C-ROADS simulation and Climate Scoreboard analysis). Read more about the climate related data and the models used in the full blog post . The EMSD partner universities have announced two additional scholarships for next year8217s cohort. Adding to the three Erasmus Mundus scholarships and the 6 EMSD scholarships that were already available, there are now 11 scholarships for non-EU students entering the program. The European Master in System Dynamics is a two year master program that equips students to analyze complex issues in an analytically sound and socially responsible manner. Students learn to use an advanced approach to feedback-rich problems: System Dynamics modelling. Models are built in close collaboration with decision-makers and stakeholders so that their insights are captured and recommendations implemented. The program offers a truly international experience as students from all over the world participate. Semesters are in four different European locations: Bergen (Norway), Lisbon (Portugal), Palermo (Italy) and Nijmegen (the Netherlands). The deadline for applying for scholarships has been extended to January 15, 2017. More information on the program and scholarships can be found on the EMSD website . The Creative Learning Exchange, in collaboration with the Center for Interdisciplinary Excellence in System Dynamics and BTN, has developed four new apps that feature simple System Dynamics models. Based on the models created by Society member Jeff Potash and his colleague John Heinbokel, these fun apps were designed as an educational tool for kids and adults alike. With these apps, you can explore models on population, retirement planning, bacterial growth and inflation on your phone, tablet or Chromebook. Visit the CLE website for access to the free System Dynamics apps . An open-access review article regarding SD applications in agriculture and natural resource problems was recently published in the journal Resources . The paper, System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles, was written by Society members Ben Turner, Hector Menendez, Roger Gates, Luis Tedeschi and Alberto Atzori. The article also cites many other Society members work and introduces System Dynamics to the natural resource disciplines. Read the full article on the MDPI website. Since Jays passing, several obituaries have been published in various newspapers and local university newsletters. Most recently Jays obituary was published in The Wall Street Journal . The Bergen Times and The Concord Journal . Please see the web page for Jay to see the full list including links to the obituaries. Information regarding services for Jay is listed in the obituary from The Concord Journal . A memorial service will be held at 10 AM on Saturday, December 10, 2016, at the Trinity Episcopal Church, 81 Elm Street, Concord, Massachusetts. The System Dynamics Society is pleased to announce the official start of two new Special Interest Groups: the Asset Dynamics SIG and the Transportation SIG. The Asset Dynamics SIG promotes and supports the application of System Dynamics for the management of complex technical systems, complex inter- and intra-organizational collaboration, multi actorstakeholder involvement and long-term interests. If you are interested in joining, please email the Asset Dynamics representatives Michel Kuijer and Arjen Ros. The Transportation SIG supports and promotes the use of System Dynamics within the transportation sector. If you are interested in joining the Transportation SIG, please email the groups representatives, Simon Shepherd and Enzo Bivona. Websites for each of the new SIGs will be available soon. The web based journal, Complexity is now accepting submissions for their upcoming Special Issue titled 8220Managing Information Uncertainty and Complexity in Decision-Making,8221 which will be published in September 2017. Authors are encouraged to submit both original research articles and review articles by April 28, 2017. Complexity is a peer-reviewed journal published by Hindawi as part of a publishing collaboration with John Wiley 038 Sons. Visit the Hindawi website to access the full Call for Papers and to see the submission guidelines . How do we find pathways to limit temperature change and its effects 45 students, faculty, and community members from the University at Albany, State University of NY enacted the World Climate Exercise climate negotiation role play, learning about the near-term actions to protect our future world. The System Dynamics Group at UAlbany organized the event, with Eliot Rich as facilitator and Babak Bahaddin as the Secretary-General of the UN. Dr. Rich noted: This World Climate Exercise was different than others Ive run. The need for determination and activist-driven optimism has never been greater. The WCE provides both. Participants surveyed after the session loved the role play and interactions built into the exercise. Through the debrief, attitudes changed from hopelessness to engagement: I was surprised how much developing countries contributed to global warming. A moving simulation Activism and consensus is more important. I want to work with businesses to help them mitigate climate change the best part was the learning process at the end. I will work harder towards my political classes and share this knowledge with friends, family and where I work. I plan to think more about my daily actions and what I can change. Starting next year, the World Climate Exercise will be integrated into the Universitys MBA programs through its G3 Going Green Globally capstone course. The exercise will be used to introduce the entire first year class to the systems perspective on sustainability, bathtub dynamics, feedback, and stakeholder dynamics. As part of their course project, students bring these concepts to bear on sustainability strategies and tactics for local businesses and non-profit agencies. At the recent UN climate conference in Morocco, an MIT team including Society member John Sterman worked together with the Climate Interactive to discuss issues concerning the Paris agreement. Through the use of models and educational tools, they are helping political leaders, policymakers and the public to see the urgency of emissions cuts, how plans that move past the Paris agreement make an impact and potential problems. The Climate Interactive has released new analysis on the 2050 climate goals of the United States, Canada and Mexico. The full report is posted on the Climate Interactive website . Member John Sterman Quoted in Live Science Article on Climate Change In the article How to Avoid Stephen Hawking8217s Dark Prediction for Humanity published by Live Science, John Sterman responded to a statement made by Stephen Hawking regarding the extinction of humans and the need to colonize other planets. John states While I respect Stephen Hawking enormously, speculating on how long Homo sapiens will survive before extinction is foolish. Whether we survive and thrive or descend into chaos is not something to predict or lay odds on, but a choice to be made.8221 John concludes by saying Anyone who thinks we can solve these problems by colonizing other worlds has been watching too much 8216Star Trek.8217 We must learn to live sustainably here, on the one planet we have, and there is no time to lose. Read more in the full article. A newly released Early View of the System Dynamics Review features the research article Estimating the parameters of system dynamics models using indirect inference , by Society member Hazhir Rahmandad and his colleagues, Mohammad Jalali, Niyousha Hosseinichimeh and Andrea Wittenborn. The article is now available on the Wiley Online Library and will later be published in an issue of the System Dynamics Review. The System Dynamics Society has received a huge response since sharing the news of Jays passing on November 16. Members of our community have sent countless emails to the System Dynamics Society office and to date have posted over 100 messages in the comments section on Jays page. These kind and thoughtful words illustrate the consummate importance Jay has had in the field of System Dynamics and the mark he has left on the lives of so many. Jays legacy will continue into the future as we move forward to promote the field of System Dynamics8211this is a collective common thread expressed in the messages and it is an important mission of the Society. On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, we thank you for sharing your thoughts and memories and encourage you to continue to do so. The Jay W. Forrester Tribute page has been updated to include a link to Obituaries and Notes from around the world. We continue to be touched and grateful for the outpouring of thoughts and remembrances from all 8220four corners of the earth.8221 It is with great sadness that the System Dynamics Society announces that Jay W. Forrester, Professor of Management Emeritus at MIT, has died at the age of 98 on November 16, 2016. Jay founded what became the field of System Dynamics in 1956 and has had a profound and lasting influence on it throughout its 60-year history. A lifelong innovator. Jay was a pioneer in digital computing and helped create the computer age in which we all live today. Trained in electrical engineering, Jay came to MIT in 1939, where he worked on feedback control servomechanisms during World War II. After the war, Jay directed the MIT Digital Computer Laboratory, where he led the design and construction of Whirlwind I. one of the worlds first high-speed digital computers. He invented and holds the patent for magnetic core memory, the dominant form of random access memory (RAM) for decades (even travelling to the moon with the Apollo astronauts), until it was eventually replaced by semiconductors. Whirlwind became the basis for many innovations, from numerically controlled machine tools to SAGE, the first integrated continental air defense system . Invited to join the faculty of the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1956, Jay created the field of System Dynamics to apply engineering concepts of feedback systems and digital simulation to understand what he famously called the counterintuitive behavior of social systems . His groundbreaking 1961 book, Industrial Dynamics, remains a clear and relevant statement of philosophy and methodology in the field. His later books and his numerous articles broke new ground in our understanding of complex human systems and policy problems. Jay officially retired in 1989, but continued his work unabated, focusing on promoting the use of System Dynamics in K-12 education . John Morecroft (London Business School) wrote My life was changed by Jay Forrester. His influence came in two distinct ways, from personal encounters and from the research environment he created as founder and leader of the System Dynamics Group at MIT-Sloan. I spent a decade at MIT, first as a doctoral student and later as a member of faculty at Sloan. So there is much to remember. George Richardson, Professor Emeritus at the University at Albany, said Jay opened a path that gave many of us voices we did not know we had. What a life of towering achievements, to have been crucial to the development of computing in its infancy, and then to show us how to use its power to help us make progress together on seemingly impossible problems. I am profoundly grateful for his presence and influence in my life. Professor John Sterman, the Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management at MIT and Director of the MIT System Dynamics Group said Like so many others, I was fortunate to be able to work with and learn from Jay. He constantly challenged us to think deeply, speak plainly, and work on issues that matter, not only to build understanding, but to act. And he always led by example. Roberta Spencer, Executive Director of the System Dynamics Society, remembers, During a conversation Jay said to me figure out a way to have courage. Jay said this to everyoneI took it to heart and it changed my life. Jay was married for sixty-four years to Susan (Swett) Forrester, who died in 2010. Survivors include one daughter, Judith Forrester of Concord, Massachusetts two sons, Nathan B. Forrester of Boca Grande, Florida, and Ned C. Forrester of Falmouth, Massachusetts four grandchildren, Matthew S. Forrester of Arcadia, CA, Julia D. Forrester of Bois, ID, Neil T. Forrester of Torrance, CA, and Katherine J. Forrester of Chicago, IL as well as two great grandchildren Everett Chen Forrester and Faraday Chen Forrester, both of Arcadia, CA. Please visit the webpage dedicated to Jay and write about how Jay touched your life. A full obituary and funeral arrangement details will be available soon. Yaman Barlas, Executive Editor of the System Dynamics Review . delivered an important message in his editorial in the last issue of the SDR . Yaman discusses the challenges involved in increasing the number of papers submitted to the journal. He states My concern is that there is currently a narrow, almost parochial perception of SDR . due to the confusion of philosophy and principles of System Dynamics with tools and software. My suggestion is simple: System Dynamics belongs to the larger field of sciences of dynamic systems and SDR is a natural platform to publish good systemic-dynamic research and applications, regardless of what tools or software they use. Yaman argues System Dynamics Review will reach its full potential by SD Society members, as well as other dynamical system scientists submitting their best work to SDR . The full editorial is freely accessible through the Wiley Online Library. The deadline for the submissions to the BSLab-SYDIC Workshop has been extended until November 30, 2016. The BSLab-SYDIC Workshop, Model-based Governance for Smart Organizational Future . has been organized by the Business Systems Laboratory (BSLab), in cooperation with the System Dynamics Italian Chapter (SYDIC). The workshop will take place at Sapienza University of Rome from January 23-24, 2017. Information about the workshop and submission guidelines can be found on the BSLab website. UAlbanys School of Business will host the World Climate Exercise on Monday, November 21 st. from 5:45 9 PM. In this simulation you must face the climate science, engage in the drama and tensions of global politics, test your ambitions against a climate-modeling tool used by actual climate negotiators, and then reflect on how the experience challenges your assumptions about climate action. The event is open to students, faculty and their friends, as well as high school students. Space is limited so register now to join in on a fun, thought-provoking evening To learn more about the World Climate Simulation. visit the Climate Interactives website. The Climate Service Center Germany, an independent scientific establishment within the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, seeks applicants with research experience in System Dynamic modelling for a PhD position. The focus of the position will be independent research on the integration of social-ecological systems analysis using SD models to guide decision making processes. Please visit the Career Link page of our website to see the full listing. The recent motion to change the name of the Psychology SIG has passed. The name has been changed to Psychology and Human Behavior SIG, reflecting the larger scope covered by this group. If you would like to join Psychology and Human Behavior SIG, please contact the SIG representatives Pascal Gambardella and David Lounsbury . In other news, the voting process by Policy Council is currently for the creation of two new Special Interest Groups: 1.) Transportation SIG and 2.) Asset Dynamics SIG. More information about these new SIGS, including how to join, will be posted after the voting period. The Institute of Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht seeks applicants for a PhD position in the area of ocean energy pathways. This position is part of a new Collaborative Research Centre Energy transfers in the Atmosphere and Ocean conducted together with partners including the University of Hamburg and Bremen. For the full listing, please visit the Career Link page on our website. The Climate Service Center Germany, an independent scientific establishment within the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, invites applications for a Scientific Researcher. The position will focus on independent, self-governed research on the integration of climate and climate impact models and socio-economic models, to provide a good basis for decision making processes in the water and agricultural sectors. The full listing is available on the Career Link page on our website. Next week, on November 16 th and 17 th. AnyLogic will be hosting a two day conference at the Sheraton Nashville Downtown. The event will feature presentations from leading organizations in the industry, workshops and networking opportunities. Attendees will have the opportunity to see how AnyLogic is being applied across multiple industries and experience innovative ideas for simulation modeling. For more information or to register, visit the AnyLogic website . On November 4, 2016, the Paris Climate Agreement came into legal force, and Society member John Sterman presented the work of Climate Interactive at the United Nations Headquarters. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon chaired a session with leaders from different civil society organizations, and Climate InteractiveMIT were selected as one of a few to speak. John Stermans presentation represented not only the work of Climate InteractiveMIT, but also that of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Climate Central, and the Carbon Tracker. John said I was happy to do so as they each do great work toward our common goal. Please visit the Climate Interactive webpage to watch the video and see the transcript of his speech, which also includes related links. Professor Daniel Peter Loucks explores the topic of simplifying models to meet changing information needs in his November 3 rd blog post, Model complexity 8211 What is the right amount In the article, Loucks writes Modelers of real systems addressing real problems have the job of providing the information needed by those making recommendations or decisions. But those individuals themselves often dont know what they will need or want until they get what our models give them. He discusses the relationship between the modeler and the stakeholder, stating One way to build that level of trust and at the same time help guide modelers in determining just what level of complexity may be most appropriate is to start simple and only add complexity when it is called for. Loucks supports this point by reviewing two case studies. Read the full article on the Integration and Implementation Insights blog. The deadline for the submissions to the BSLab-SYDIC Workshop has been extended until November 15, 2016. The BSLab-SYDIC Workshop, Model-based Governance for Smart Organizational Future . has been organized by the Business Systems Laboratory (BSLab), in cooperation with the System Dynamics Italian Chapter (SYDIC). The workshop will take place at Sapienza University of Rome from January 23-24, 2017. Information about the workshop and submission guidelines can be found on the BSLab website. The research article System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry, by Guangdong Wu, Kaifeng Duan, Jian Zou, Jianlin Yang, and Shiping Wen, has been published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health . In the article, the authors explore how work-family conflict effects not only the family life of an employee, but also how the conflict impacts the employees job performance. The authors built a model that focuses on the construction industry in particular. In the abstract, they explain In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employees work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a System Dynamics model of employees work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The full paper is available on the MDPI website. On November 10, 2015, the System Dynamics Society activated a LinkedIn Company Page. In the last year, just shy of 1,000 people signed up to follow this page. Thank you to all who are following We are proud of the page and the interest shown. As we near our one year anniversary, we expect to reach our goal of 1,000 followers, and keep growing On the System Dynamics Society Company Page, we post news of current happenings in the field of System Dynamics and welcome comments. The Society also has two Showcase pages on LinkedIn: The Case Repository and SD Conference. Stay connected, stay informed: follow us on LinkedIn Today, October 31, 2016, is the last day to submit your two page extended abstract for the special issue of the System Dynamics Review . Dont miss the opportunity to contribute to this special issue commemorating the 60th anniversary of the founding of the field Please see the full call for papers for detailed information. Send questions and abstracts to SD60thmit.edu. Full papers will be due on May 15, 2017. Member zge Karanfil has received the Yerby Postdoctoral Fellowship at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and been appointed as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Global Health and Population Department, starting September 2016. She is currently working on projects that involve chronic and cardiovascular disease modeling for Malaysia and South Korea, obesity in the Middle East, and a systematic review of risk factors for dyslipidemias in Southeast Asia. zge completed her PhD in System Dynamics Research Group at MIT in 2016, and is a previous recipient of the Dana Meadows Award from the System Dynamics Society. Her PhD dissertation is entitled: Why Clinical Practice Guidelines Shift Over Time: A Dynamic Model with Application to Prostate Cancer Screening. On behalf of the System Dynamics Society, congratulations and good luck to zge The September 2016 issue of the The Accounting Review . features the article Dynamics Decision Making Using the Balanced Scorecard Framework, by Society member Shayne Gary, along with his colleagues at UNSW Australia Business School, Kerry Humphreys and Ken Trotman. The article discusses the study of managerial mental models, building on work that Shayne has published previously. As stated in the abstract, This study examines the effects that two balanced scorecard framework (BSF) elements, causal linkages between strategic objectives (causal linkages) and time delay information (delays) in a strategy map, have on long-term profit performance in a dynamic decision-making environment. The full article is available on the American Accounting Associations website . The Springer Link journal Group Decision and Negotiation recently published the article Evaluating Facilitated Modelling Processes and Outcomes: An Experiment Comparing a Single and a Multimethod Approach in Group Model Building, by Hugo Herrera, and Society members Marleen McCardle-Keurentjes and Nuno Videira. In the abstract, the authors compare group model building and the multimethod approach, We explored the differences between these two modelling approaches in facilitating cognitive change, consensus and commitment by building an experimental research design with real clients, working on their organizations problem. The full paper can be accessed by visiting the website of Springer Link. So far the XIV CLADS has been very successful As shown in these photos of yesterdays events, Hazhir Rahmandad taught a workshop on Analytical Methods and presented The Viability of Good Jobs in the Service Sector. Today, October 21, will be the last day of the XIV CLADS. The schedule for the day includes plenary sessions and workshops, and will conclude this evening with a workshop led by Kim Warren. On October 22, the day after the conference, Kims Strategy and Business Dynamics Workshop will continue at the Leques Hotel. October 19 th. marked the first day of the XIV CLADS (Congresso Latino Americano de Dinmica de Sistemas) in So Paulo, Brazil. This three day event, promoted by the Brazil and Latin American Chapters of the System Dynamics Society, is being hosted by Centro Universitrio FEI. The System Dynamics Societys president, Etinne Rouwette, opened the first day with his keynote speech, System Dynamics, Stakeholders, and Marking an Impact. Later in the day, Etinne delivered a workshop on Group Model Building and Karim Chichakly held an introductory workshop in System Dynamics. Other events on the first day included three plenary and twelve parallel presentations. The presentations explored various topics, such as energy transition, disaster relief and taxation dynamics. On Thursday, Kim Warren gave his keynote address. Thursdays workshops were led by Kim and Hazhir Rahmandad. Eighteen parallel presentations are also on the days schedule. XIV CLADS will conclude on Friday with additional presentations and workshops. The System Dynamics Colloquium will be meeting at UAlbany in December. This student-organized colloquium brings together graduate students from UAlbany SUNY, MIT, and WPI. The one-day colloquium offers non-evaluative peer review and allows students to present System Dynamics related research to faculty, other students, and practitioners for feedback and informational exchange. In an effort to pick a date that works for the majority of the potential attendees, a scheduling survey has been created. Please vote by visiting the online survey. the poll will close at 12:00 AM on October 30, 2016. For more information about the past events, please visit our MIT-UAlbany-WPI SD Colloquia page. A new job opening for a research assistant is now available at Zrich University of Applied Sciences in their System Dynamics research group for Transition of Regional Energy Systems. Applications will be accepted through October 31, 2016. A full job description has been posted on the Societys website. As skills in German are essential to the job, the description has been posted in German. In the Citizen-Times article Climate-change models inform negotiators, engage regular folks, author Mike Cronin discusses the important role the Climate Interactive has in environmental policy. The Climate Interactive is a non-profit organization founded in 2010, with headquarters in Washington D.C. and additional offices in Asheville, North Carolina, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Hartland, Vermont. The Climate Interactive, along with Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems, created the System Dynamics model used to determine the effects of proposed environmental policies. The Climate Interactive plays a significant role in climate policy, in fact, during the recent Paris Climate Agreement negotiations, attendees regularly conferred with the researchers and scientists at the Climate Interactive. The models have remained as a free and open source, and are used by many. As quoted in the article, Climate Interactive co-director Elizabeth Sarwin states We make our simulations easy to use and freely accessible to people all over the world who want to understand what it will take to protect the climate. We use our tools to open up the discourse about infrastructure investments that impact the climate to bring more people and more perspectives into decision-making. Read more in the full article on the Citizen-Times website. The Australasian Chapter of the System Dynamics Society met for lunch in mid-October in Brisbane. Members included system dynamicists from the University of Queensland (UQ) and Griffith University. Discussion items included the idea of hosting the next Asia Pacific SD conference in Queensland. The UQ and Griffith SD people plan to have regular meetings to further discuss this idea and other chapter business. Shown in the photo are (from left to right) Carl Smith (current Australasian Chapter president), Russell Richards, Khoi Nguyen, Edoardo Bertone, Emiliya Suprun, Mehdi Hafezi, Rodney Stewart and Oz Sahin. Also present was Sue McAvoy. The Psychology SIG proposes to change their name to the Psychology and Human Behavior SIG. As noted by the co-chairs of the SIG, David Lounsbury and Pascal Gambardella, Our request to change the SIGs name comes from members observations that psychology, as a primary domain focus, describes only a fraction of what we actually discuss, critique, and support. This is evidenced in the workshops and presentations that the SIG has organized and supported. So far the request has been met with positive responses, and ten members have added their name to the formal request. Members of the Society may comment on the name change, contact David and Pascal by email. The Psychology SIG welcomes new members, please see the website for more information. On a Wikipedia reference page listing the people who are considered the father or mother of a scientific field, Jay W. Forrester is acknowledged as the father of System Dynamics. The list contains nearly 150 scientific fields, the person or persons considered father or mother of the field, and the rationale for the choosing that person. Under the rationale column for Professor Forrester, his book Industrial Dynamics (1961) is listed. The Systems Theory section on this page provides a link to the Wikipedia page for System Dynamics and to Jays bibliography, which includes his publications and other external links. A new research article titled A Dynamic Model of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder for Military Personnel and Veterans, by members Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Mohammad S. Jalai and their Virginia Tech colleague Alireza Ebrahimvandi, has recently been published in PLOS ONE. In this study, the authors developed a System Dynamics simulation model of the population of military personnel and veterans affected by this mental illness and then used the model for an analysis of health policy. The full paper is available on the PLOS ONE website. Mohammad Jalai discusses the topic further in a related article published in the Conversation. Fighting another war: How many military personnel and veterans will have PTSD in 2025 When speaking of the results, Mohammad concludes, that in a post-war period there is no easy solution for overcoming the problem of PTSD, and the current screening and treatment policies used by the VA and the DOD must be revolutionized to have any noticeable effect. The VA and the DOD should work together and try to offer timely service to patients. However, we showed that they cannot do much to decrease health care costs. These are the consequences of wars. For the use of the public and policymakers, the authors have provided access to the online model . In Principles of Systems . author Jay W. Forrester explains the basic principles behind system behavior. The book introduces the concepts of structure and dynamic behavior on which were based the authors earlier books, Industrial Dynamics . 1961 and Urban Dynamics . 1969. Due to the general nature and wide applicability of the principles discussed, the book has been accepted as a starting point for teaching dynamic systems on many multidisciplinary courses on urban, ecological, corporate and other complex social systems. The reprinted edition of Principles of Systems can be ordered through the Societys book store on our website. Member Diana Fisher is reaching out to colleagues in the field of System Dynamics for assistance in creating a database of K-12 teachers (globally) who are using systems thinking (BOTGs, causal loops, ladder of inference, iceberg, andor Behavior of a Systems Thinker cards) andor are using System Dynamics models or are having students build System Dynamics models in their classes. Once these teachers are identified, they would be invited to participate in the annual international research conference when the conference is relatively close to their location. Diana would also like to determine how best to help network those teachers to share resources. If you know any K-12 (pre-college) teachers who are using STSD in your area, Diana requests that you send her their names and contact information (email to fisherd at pdx.edu ) so she can communicate with them to see if they are willing to be part of the database. Please note that she would like to have the information within the next 2-3 weeks. On behalf of Diana, thank you for any help you can provide The Fall 2016 issue of the Creative Learning Exchange newsletter, The Exchange . features various articles that engage young students in System Dynamics modeling. The newsletter opens with an overview of the book Model Mysteries: An Exploration of Vampires, Zombies and Other Fantastic Scenarios to the Make the World a Better Place . by Anne LaVigne and Lees Stuntz. Model Mysteries contains six chapters, each presenting a mystery to solve by using SD modeling. In the article To be or not to be I am Hamlet, Hae-Hyun Park reports on Professor Chang Kwon Chungs Shakespeares Hamlet Modeling program . Alan Ticotsky follows a group of Massachusetts high school students as they investigate the crisis of opioid addiction in his article Students Examine the Opioid Crisis. Also in this issue, the Creative Learning Exchange announced that WPI will host DynamiQueST 2017. The event will take place Friday, March 17, 2017, at the WPI Student Center. More information about DynamiQueST 2017 can be found on the Creative Learning Exchange website . Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) has the unique opportunity to establish a new chair in Policy Modelling for Global Challenges in The Hague. The move of the TPM MSc in Engineering Policy Analysis to The Hague, a major centre for the United Nations (along with New York, Geneva 038 Vienna), creates opportunities to strengthen collaboration between the TU Delft and The Hague based organizations working towards solving global challenges. This will be conducive to the quality and relevance of both research and educational activities. The new chair holder will lead the 8216Delft in The Hague8217 initiative, manage the branch in The Hague and create and pursue opportunities to strengthen research and education, both in Delft and in The Hague. For more information on this position, please use this link. To see a list of all the job listings, or to post a job, please see the Career Link page. The University of North Dakota School of Medicine and Health Sciences (UND SMHS) will partner with colleagues at the University of Bergen in Norway (UiB) to train students in each of the universitys areas of expertise. As System Dynamics is increasing applied to analyzing public health topics, the need for cross training students of public health and students of System Dynamics is evident. The Norwegian Centre for International Cooperation in Education under the Partnership Program with North America will fund the project from January 2017 through December 2020. The grant titled Model-based Public Health Education, was awarded to UND SMHS Assistant Professor Arielle Selya, PhD, and Master of Public Health Founding Director and Professor Raymond Goldsteen DrPH, in collaboration with Associate Professor David Wheat and Professor Pl Davidsen in the Department of Geography at UiB. The grant will allow the exchange of studies for up to five students per year, providing students the opportunity to gain highly marketable skills. Read more about this project in the full article . Jeroen Struben has recently been appointed assistant Professor at EM Lyon Business School in Lyon, France. Jeroen will be teaching within the Strategy and Organization Department. Among other classes, he will teach the new master level course Systems Thinking and Sustainability. Jeroen studies dynamics of market formation and transformation, addressing questions, such as How do alternative products and practices penetrate in the marketplace 8211 or society at large, rather than falter Jeroen analyzes market formation processes, focusing on the over-time interactions across stakeholders working through both social and material adoption challenges. He conceptualizes and studies these efforts as market formation processes because significant uptake of such products involves the joint development of consumer familiarization, complementary infrastructure, and technology improvement. Jeroen tackles these problems using simulation and empirical analysis of large spatiotemporal datasets. His current research program consists of three projects: (I) Market formation for alternative fuel vehicles, (II) Market formation for nutritious food, and (III) Market formation theory. Jeroens research produces insights for both scholars and practitioners about coordination and collective action across organizations, industries and governments. Congratulations to Jeroen On behalf of the Society, we wish you the best of luck in your new position. Breaking the Deadlock: How Qualitative System Dynamics Can Help to Overcome Emergency Department Crowding in Singapore The article Emergency department crowding in Singapore: Insights from a systems thinking approach, by members Lukas Schoenenberger, John Ansah, and David Matchar, along with their colleagues from Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore, Steffen Bayer, Rajagopal Mohanavalli, Sean Lam, and Marcus Ong, has been published in the open access journal SAGE Open Medicine . The work vividly shows how causal loop diagramming can be used for both eliciting the systemic structure of emergency department crowding and causally inferring (relative) impacts of different policies currently debated by policy-makers in Singapore. The full article can be viewed on the SAGE Open Medicine website. System Dynamics Thinking Addressing Day-to-Day Decision-Making Krishna Pendyala, founder of the ChoiceLadder Institute is looking for System Dynamics Thinking articles or papers that address day-to-day decision-making, choices that take a few minutes and do not involve a systematic or process-oriented decision-making. He is also interested in collaborating with a researcher who is willing to do an expanded literature search and write a white paper along similar lines. For more information, please contact Krishna directly. In August, isee systems held a live webinar giving an overview of the newly released Stella Architect. The overview provides guidance for navigating the latest features and introduces the new interface design and publishing tools of Stella Architect. The webinar, presented by isee systems lead developer, and Society member Bill Shoenberg, is now available on the isee systems website. There is still time to submit your paper for the Asia-Pacific Region System Dynamics Conference The deadline for the submission of papers has been extended to November 3, 2016. The conference will take place February 19-22, 2017, at the National University of Singapore. The program committee welcomes all research and documented consulting activities using System Dynamics, including applications of the methodology to solve real world problems, new technical and software developments, and productive integration of complementary methodologies in order to create new solutions. Please visit the Asia-Pacific Region Conference website for information on submission requirements and instructions on how to submit your paper and key dates. The article Absorptive capacity, technological innovation, and product life cycle: a System Dynamics model, by Bo Zou, Feng Guo and Jinyu Guo, was recently published in the web based journal Springer Plus . The article is a summary of the authors study of using System Dynamics modeling to provide analysis for adjusting the management policies of businesses. In the abstract, the authors state While past research has recognized the importance of the dynamic nature of absorptive capacity, there is limited knowledge on how to generate a fair and comprehensive analytical framework. Based on interviews with 24 Chinese firms, this study develops a system-dynamics model that incorporates an important feedback loop among absorptive capacity, technological innovation, and product life cycle (PLC). The full article can be viewed on the Springer Plus website. The German Chapter of the System Dynamics Society, Deutsche Gesellschaft fr System Dynamics e.V. (DGSD) will hold its annual meeting at Stuttgart University on October 6-7, 2016. This meeting will be a celebration of the 10 th anniversary of the DGSD. International guest speakers include: Dr. David Lane, Henley Business School, University of Reading, Reading, UK and Dr. Brad Morrison, Brandeis International Business School, Waltham, USA. The conference program will feature the presentation of the Gert von Kortzfleisch Prize for outstanding SD work in Germany, a PhD Colloquium, a Company Colloquium, the presentation of the first DGSD scholar enrolled in the European Master in System Dynamics program, Miriam Spano, and dialogue on the DGSD core values. Conference attendees will also have the opportunity to participate in the climate change strategy game World Climate Simulation. Additional details and registration information can be found on the meeting website. In his blog post Business can rock the world, Bjrn Kj. Haugland, Executive Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer in the DNV GL Group, discusses the forecast of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The article features details about the DNV GL report The Future of Spaceship Earth, a study of seventeen SDGs each paired with a leading global company with relevance to a particular goal. Haugland notes In our quest to assess the likelihood of the SDGs being achieved by 2030 we took, as a starting point, the long-term forecast created by one of the original members of the Club of Rome, Jrgen Randers. We then surveyed over a dozen forecasting models. Of these, we found the two most suitable supplementary models were the System Dynamics-based T21 model of Millennium Institute System Dynamics, and the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) led by Professor William Nordhaus of Yale University. Our team performed structural sensitivity analyses using these two supplemental models, and drew on the T21 model in particular to assess SDG issues and targets not covered by the Randers model. The results were expressed in terms of a scorecard, which revealed progress in the areas of health, innovation and education, but shows the sustainable development goal in climate action falling short across the board in all five global regions. Read the full blog post for additional information and a video presentation. Access the full report from DNV GL to learn more about the seventeen companies involved in this project. SD Modeling for Strategy and Performance in Higher Education A video presentation by member Kim Warren of Strategy Dynamics, Workshop: Modeling University Strategy and Performance with System Dynamics . is now accessible online. Kims presentation focuses on how to model challenges for higher-education organizations. Your questions and comments are welcomed and can be shared on the forum that follows the video. The presentation was recorded from a session at the EAIR (The European Higher Education Society) Forum held earlier this month at Birmingham City University, Birmingham, UK. Additional information on EAIR Forum can be found their website. As a part of Romes Systemic Week, Sapienza University of Rome will host the BSLab-SYDIC Workshop from January 23-24, 2017, and the 17 th Congress of World Organization of Systems and Cybernetics from January 25-27, 2017. The BSLab-SYDIC Workshop, Model-based Governance for Smart Organizational Future . has been organized by the Business Systems Laboratory (BSLab), in cooperation with the System Dynamics Italian Chapter (SYDIC). The workshop committee will accept the submission of extended abstracts for panel presentation or poster session until November 1, 2016. The deadline for registration and membership is December 30, 2016. For more information about the workshop and the conference, visit the SYDIC website. We are pleased to introduce our team of conference organizers for the 2017 Cambridge, Massachusetts, Conference The Program Chairs are John Sterman and Nelson Repenning from MIT Sloan, and the Workshop Chairs are Jack B. Homer from Homer Consulting and Hazhir Rahmandad from MIT Sloan. Thank you to our conference volunteers for their dedication and service For more information on the 35 th Annual International System Dynamics Conference, a 60 th Anniversary Celebration, visit the conference website. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Defense Sciences Office (DSO) is requesting information on new ideas, approaches, and capabilities for developing interactive simulations that can be used to calibrate the validity of different social science research methods and tools in drawing strong inference about causal mechanisms that can lead to emergent complex behaviors in human social systems. Please see the Request for Information (RFI) for full information. Responses will be accepted until October 18, 2016. The Call for Papers deadline for the Asia-Pacific Region System Dynamics Conference is October 13, 2016. The conference will take place February 19-22, 2017, at the National University of Singapore. Information on submission requirements and instructions on how to submit your paper can be found on the A-P Conference website. The website also contains links to two articles by member Tom Fiddaman featuring tips on writing good System Dynamics Conference papers. Earlier this week, isee systems announced the release of Stella Simulator. Stella Simulator is a stand-alone, XMILE-compatible simulation engine based on isee systems STEAM engine. It can be used for sever or High Performance Computing applications, or embedded in desktop applications. Visit isee systems website for additional details. On October 5, 2016, the India Chapter will host a New DelhiNational Capital Territory regional meeting for System Dynamics professionals and those who are interested in the subject. The meeting will take place from 5-7 p.m. at the headquarters of IORA Ecological Solutions Pvt. Ltd. in Lado Sarai, New Delhi. The Governing Council of the SDS India Chapter is meeting at 10 a.m. on October 7 th. at the Symbiosis Institute of Computer Science in Pune, Maharashtra. The focus of this meeting is to develop a strategy for engagement and activities for 2016-2017 in India. The India Chapter welcomes your suggestions, comments, and ideas on how to increase the level of engagement with System Dynamics practitioners in India please email Karan Khosla at indiasysdyngmail. For information about the India Chapter, please visit their web page. The Latin American and Brazil Chapters of the System Dynamics Society invite you to attend the XIV Latin American Conference of Systems Dynamics (CLADS 2016), October 19-21, 2016, at the University Center FEI, So Paulo, Brazil. The following Society members are scheduled to speak at the conference: Kim Warren, Hazir Rahmandad, Etinne Rouwette, and Karim Chichakly. A registration discount is available through September 26, 2016. Additional conference information can be viewed on the CLADS 2016 website. On behalf of the Russian Chapter, Member Natalia Lychkina invites system dynamicists to participate in the IV International Research Conference, System Analysis in the Economy 2016. The SAvE 2016 Conference, hosted by the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, will be held in Moscow, November 9-11, 2016. The main purpose of the conference is to create a platform for scientific generalizations and achieved practical results in the social and economic sphere in order to develop the science of the economy and society on the basis of the theory of socio-economic systems. The founder and head of the conference is the corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Georgii Borisovich Kleiner. The deadline for submission of reports for presentation to students, masters and post-graduate students is October 30, 2016. Please see the conference website for additional details. For information about the Russian Chapter, visit their web page.
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