Trading-strategy-from-a-trading-skeptic-pdf

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Furk adalah penyimpanan aman pribadi Anda yang mengambil file media dan memungkinkan Anda segera melakukan streaming. Anda dapat menggunakannya untuk melakukan streaming video atau mendengarkan musik Anda dari PC, smartphone, HTPC, atau bahkan konsol permainan (XBOX, PS3). Batas layanan: Batas bandwidth: sampai 250GB per bulan Batas penyimpanan disk: tidak terbatas (asalkan file berasal dari sumber publik) Furk bukan file locker dan tidak mendukung filesharing untuk mendapatkan keuntungan. Masuk atau Daftar Masuk atau Buat akun dengan identitas sosial favorit Anda Semua Bintang Investor Tepi Anda pada ETF dan rotasi pasar, dengan konsumen yang mendukung mata. Ron Rowland adalah editorpublisher AllStarInvestor, di mana dia telah memberikan komentar pasar, analisis dana ETFmutual, dan saran mengenai manajemen investasi aktif sejak 1991. Selain mengumpulkan banyak peringkat kinerja terbaik dari the Hulbert Financial Digest, buletin andalannya juga dinamai untuk Hulberts Honor Roll pada banyak kesempatan untuk kinerja di atas rata-rata di pasar atas dan bawah. Sebagai pendiri InvestWithAnEdge, Ron membuat situs web terkemuka dari semua analisis ETF asli dan independen, yang isinya banyak disindikasi. InvestWithAnEdge tidak menerima pendapatan iklan dari sponsor ETF, menjadikannya situs utama untuk analisis ETF yang kritis dan tidak bias, termasuk Deathwatch ETF yang sangat populer dan sumber statistik industri ETF yang tepat waktu namun komprehensif. Ron juga adalah presiden dan pendiri Capital Cities Asset Management (CCAM), firma penasihat investasi yang terdaftar yang menyediakan jasa manajemen, penelitian, dan perencanaan investasi untuk klien individu dan institusi. CCAM memanfaatkan keahlian Rons dengan ETF dalam membantu klien mencapai tujuan investasi mereka. Rally pasca pemilihan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda mereda meski banyak prediksi akan adanya pembalikan yang akan terjadi. Justru sebaliknya, investor telah bertemu setiap jeda dengan pembelian baru yang segar, dan jumlah kelompok yang mengikutinya terus berkembang. Model Rotasi Sektor ini melakukan pembelian baru di ETRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETN (MLPI) hari ini. Ini melacak indeks kemitraan terbatas master (MLP) yang berfokus pada transportasi, penyimpanan, dan pengolahan komoditas energi. Dengan bulan pertama 2017 sekarang di kaca spion, pemerintahan baru memulai minggu ketiga di kantornya, dan Super Bowl pertama di buku catatan, empat dari lima model kami membuat perubahan hari ini. Sistem klasifikasi pasar MSCI saat ini mengkategorikan 25 negara sebagai Emerging Markets. Bertahun-tahun yang lalu, akronim BRIC diciptakan untuk membantu mengidentifikasi empat negara emerging market terkemuka di Brazil, Rusia, India, dan China. Obligasi, terutama Treasurys A.S. yang telah lama mengalami kemunduran dalam enam bulan terakhir. Pemahaman tentang hubungan terbalik antara harga dan hasil menjelaskan sebagian besar tindakan, namun mengingat perubahan suku bunga yang relatif kecil. Silakan lihat PDF untuk mendapatkan peringkat, kepemilikan dan data kinerja. Presiden terpilih Donald Trump tidak kekurangan kritik, dan banyak rencana dan proposal ekonominya dipenuhi dengan penghinaan dan ejekan. Namun, tidak semua orang adalah seorang kritikus, dan dukungan sekarang berasal dari sumber yang tidak terduga. Mengutip Trumps berencana mengurangi pajak. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Selalu menyenangkan saat tahun baru dimulai dengan awal yang positif, tapi kita semua tahu ini bukan jaminan kelancaran berlayar sepanjang tahun. Yang menarik adalah keuntungan satu minggu yang diposkan oleh banyak pasar luar negeri dan ETF. . Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Hari ini menandai hari perdagangan pertama tahun kalender yang baru. Anda mungkin sudah melupakannya, tapi setahun yang lalu hari ini, pasar saham memulai awal terburuknya. Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 276 poin pada yang pertama. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Minggu lalu terdiri dari lima hari volume di bawah rata-rata. Minggu ini kemungkinan akan empat hari sama. Namun, volume rendah tidak identik dengan pasar yang membosankan. Bahkan, volume yang dikurangi membuat lebih mudah bagi saham untuk mengirim lebih besar. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Seperti yang diharapkan, Federal Reserve menaikkan suku bunga hingga seperempat persen pada pertemuan FOMC minggu lalu dan menyarankan agar tiga kenaikan lagi disentuh untuk tahun kalender 2017. Reaksi pasar saham agak tidak jelas, dan SampP. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pertemuan FOMC terakhir tahun 2016 menyimpulkan pada hari Rabu ini, dan pengamat Fed mengharapkan tingkat suku bunga akan meningkat pada kesimpulan pertemuan. Karena kenaikan tersebut tampaknya merupakan kepastian, sedikit atau tidak ada respon pasar saham yang diharapkan. Namun, pasar saham. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Meskipun tolok ukur pasar primer menunjukkan tanda-tanda stabilitas, divergensi kinerja besar terus mengintai di bawah permukaan. Pekan lalu, Energy naik 3,2 sementara Teknologi turun 3,1 untuk selisih 6,3 di antara sektor A.S. utama. Secara internasional, Kanada naik 1,4 versus a. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Rally ekuitas pasca pemilihan tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda akan menyerah, tapi kita semua tahu itu tidak dapat dan tidak akan berlangsung selamanya. Thats tidak mengatakan rally tidak memiliki kaki hanya itu tidak peduli berapa lama dan jauh itu pergi,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Gempa susulan mengejutkan hasil pemilihan A.S. terus bergejolak menembus pasar. Meskipun besarnya divergensi tidak sebesar pada minggu pemilihan, hasil minggu lalu menghasilkan perkumpulan pemenang dan pecundang. Mulai. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Hasil pemilihan A.S. mengejutkan banyak pengamat, dan reaksi pasar tampaknya merupakan kejutan yang lebih besar lagi. Pada Hari Pemilu, situs The New York Times melacak kemungkinan kemenangan Trump secara real time. Saat jajak pendapat mulai ditutup,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Beberapa investor cenderung khawatir tentang setiap putaran dan belokan di pasar dan berita, terus-menerus mencemaskan dampak portofolio potensial. Jika ini menggambarkan Anda, maka kabar baiknya adalah Anda dapat mengambil penghiburan dalam kenyataan bahwa Anda berada. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Ketidakpastian pasar, dalam bentuk risiko politik, cenderung akan menjadi panggung utama pekan ini. Dengan kurang dari 180 jam tersisa bagi para pemilih untuk membuat pilihan akhir mereka dalam pemilihan presiden A.S., dinamika politik dari siklus pemilihan ini tetap ada. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Amerika Latin telah mengalami reli yang kuat. Patokan kami untuk kawasan ini, iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF), diperbesar 5,2 lebih tinggi minggu lalu dan naik 15,4 sejak 14 September. Ini telah melonjak 47,6 mengesankan untuk tahun ini, dan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Yang tidak sering dolar A.S. berada di atas grafik kinerja, tapi itulah yang terjadi hari ini. Kekuatan dalam dolar kadang-kadang dapat dilacak pada meningkatnya permintaan untuk sekuritas SBU, terutama dari pembeli asing. Namun, itu belum. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Tekanan jual pada segmen saham dengan yield tinggi diintensifkan pekan lalu dengan penurunan Real Estate 5.3, Utilities turun 3.8, dan Telecom tergelincir 2.1. Salah satu favorit kami sebelumnya, PowerShares SampP 500 Low Volatility (SPLV), turun 2.3. Selain itu, salah satu dari kepemilikan dividen tinggi kami yang baru datang. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Itu adalah minggu ayunan poin besar yang membuat tolok ukur pasar luas tetap datar, sementara Energy menguat 5.0 lebih tinggi dan Utilities turun 3,7. Model Pendapatan Tetap Taktis dirancang untuk memberikan pendapatan dan mitigasi risiko saat suku bunga mulai. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. All Star Investor membawa teknik investasi cerdas-beta ke investor ETF yang ingin mendapatkan keuntungan di pasar. Kami telah menyediakan portofolio model investor yang mudah diikuti selama lebih dari seperempat abad. Layanan kami telah berkembang berkali-kali. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Edisi berikutnya dari newsletter kami dijadwalkan akan dipublikasikan pada hari Kamis ini (92916), dan akan berisi rekomendasi awal bahwa portofolio model baru kami akan dibeli di pasar tutup pada hari Jumat (93016). Tujuan saya dengan All Star Investor sederhana:. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Volatilitas telah kembali. Setelah hampir dua bulan penuh dengan semua pergerakan harian terkandung dalam band sempit, ayunan yang lebih besar telah dilanjutkan untuk saham A.S. Pergerakan turun satu hari yang besar, seperti yang terjadi pada hari Selasa lalu dan Jumat sebelumnya,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pada hari Jumat, saham turun, obligasi turun, dan emas turun. Jika Anda mengandalkan diversifikasi kelas aset klasik untuk melindungi portofolio Anda, Anda mungkin akan kecewa. Sementara pendekatan ini sering bekerja dalam jangka panjang, periode yang lebih pendek tidak selalu. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Agustus secara resmi berakhir pada hari Rabu yang lalu, dan musim panas tidak berakhir sampai ekuinoks musim gugur terjadi pada 22 September. Namun, jangan terpaku pada masalah teknis kecil ini. Meskipun kalender mungkin mengatakan hal lain, dalam pikiran kebanyakan orang Amerika, musim panas berakhir. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Bank-bank sentral di seluruh dunia telah menempatkan diri mereka di wilayah yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya dengan terus menurunkan suku bunga melewati titik ketika mereka mencapai nol. Konsep suku bunga negatif agak sulit dipahami, dan tidak semua orang yakin akan melakukannya. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Melihat tolok ukur pasar saham utama di seluruh dunia, Anda mungkin berpikir tidak ada aksi pasar minggu lalu. Indeks SampP 500 datar, Dow Jones Industrial Average datar, dan Indeks EAFE rata. Komposit NASDAQ. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pasar yang sedang berkembang bergerak, sebuah gulungan yang bagus. Saham Amerika Latin telah berjalan dengan baik sepanjang tahun. The iShares Amerika Latin 40 ETF (ILF) membukukan keuntungan 38 tahun-to-date meskipun mengalami penderitaan hampir 14 tahun. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Laporan pekerjaan bulanan telah menghasilkan kejutan naik dan turun dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Peluncuran laporan Juli pada hari Jumat tampaknya beragam, dengan pengusaha menambahkan 255.000 pekerjaan dan banyak warga pindah kembali ke persalinan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Apakah Anda ingat ketika akhir pekan Hari Buruh digunakan untuk menandai akhir musim panas Ini merupakan delta kalender utama yang akan diklaim beberapa saat setelah peluncuran kalender tahunan 1 Januari. Bersama . Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Federal Reserve sedang melakukan pertemuan dua hari Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) minggu ini. Pada pertemuan FOMC ini, Komite mengkaji kondisi ekonomi dan keuangan, menentukan sikap kebijakan moneter yang tepat, dan menilai risiko terhadap tujuan jangka panjangnya. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Secara keseluruhan, ini adalah minggu yang baik untuk saham. Negara-negara emerging market dan ETF sangat kuat, dan Anda dapat melihat banyak benchmark pasar berkembang di dekat puncak grafik kinerja satu minggu. Bahkan iShares MSCI Turki (TUR) sudah baik. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Sebulan yang lalu, laporan pekerjaan suram menyebabkan The Fed menaikkan kenaikan suku bunga yang akan datang dan memberikan dorongan untuk emas, penambang emas, obligasi Treasury A.S., dan mata uang asing. Seperti yang mungkin Anda ingat, 38.000 pekerjaan baru yang aneh adalah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pasar sebagian besar pulih dari penurunan yang cepat dan tajam di akhir Juni. Indeks SampP 500 ditutup kembali di atas 2100 pada hari Jumat, dan hanya 1,3 senti dari rekor tertinggi yang ditetapkan pada bulan Mei 2015. Beberapa sektor, semacam itu. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Abaikan para pelaku ketakutan. Menurut berita utama dan pakar, referendum Inggris untuk pergi ke Uni Eropa (UE) tidak kekurangan bencana. Anda hampir bisa mendengar mereka mengklaim bahwa langit jatuh saat persediaan terjual habis. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Jika Anda tidak berpikir pasar bereaksi terhadap kemungkinan Inggris keluar dari Uni Eropa, maka mungkin todays tindakan pasar akan meyakinkan Anda. Selama empat hari perdagangan yang berakhir Selasa lalu (61416), iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pasar sepertinya mengalami perubahan mendadak akhir pekan lalu. Setelah ditutup dalam setengah persen dari level tertinggi sepanjang masa pada hari Rabu, Indeks SampP 500 turun sekitar 1,1 pada hari Kamis dan Jumat. Biasanya, drop kecil seperti itu selama dua hari akan terjadi. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Ini bisa jadi kebetulan, tapi untuk saat ini, laporan pekerjaan Mei yang dirilis pada hari Jumat lalu merupakan iklim penciptaan pekerjaan terburuk sejak September 2010. Sedikitnya 38.000 pekerjaan baru turun jauh dari perkiraan konsensus 160.000. Menambahkan penghinaan untuk cedera,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Komentar di ruang ini seminggu yang lalu berfokus pada bagaimana Fed telah mengubah persneling mengenai kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga bulan Juni. Tepat saat konsensus tersebut berjalan menuju kenaikan berikutnya yang terjadi pada pertemuan FOMC bulan September,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Hingga pekan lalu, setiap siaran pers Fed, pernyataan kebijakan, dan pidato enam bulan terakhir telah menggemakan data ekonomi yang menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi lamban dan rentan. Dengan demikian, the Fed, dan pengamat Fed, terus mendorong kembali tanggal yang diharapkan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pasar Amerika Latin, Brasil pada khususnya, telah mencatat beberapa ayunan liar beberapa bulan terakhir. Sebagian besar tindakan tersebut tampaknya berpusat pada potensi pemakzulan Dilma Rousseff, presiden Brasil, dengan pasar melonjak lebih tinggi setiap. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Selama delapan tahun terakhir ini, laporan pekerjaan bulanan merupakan salah satu rilis ekonomi yang paling banyak diantisipasi. Mungkin memang begitu, tapi dampak dan pemberitaan mereka nampaknya telah berkurang secara substansial selama tahun lalu. Jumat lalu,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Dispersi dalam hasil kinerja satu minggu cukup besar minggu lalu, dengan penyebaran 11,3 antara Emas di atas dan Jepang di bagian bawah. Emas bullion melonjak pada bulan Januari dan Februari, dan setelah dua bulan konsolidasi, sekarang. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Semua orang mengharapkan agar langkah selanjutnya oleh FOMC akan menaikkan suku bunga lagi. Namun, sejak tingkat suku bunga naik di bulan Desember untuk pertama kalinya dalam beberapa tahun, Fed telah melakukan yang terbaik untuk menciptakan harapan investor terhadap gagasan tersebut. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Harga minyak mentah terus mendominasi siklus berita keuangan. Tidak seperti pergerakan historis harga minyak, yang biasanya menghasilkan pergerakan harga saham yang berlawanan, girangan pada tahun lalu telah condong ke arah korelasi positif. Tidak terlalu sering. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Gerakan countertrend telah sering dibahas di kolom ini. Sebagian besar lingkungan pasar dapat digambarkan dalam hal harga trendlinging utama, turunnya harga, atau pergerakan sideways. Alangkah baiknya jika semua gerakan terjadi dalam garis lurus, maka kita akan melakukannya. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Manusia telah bepergian sejak kaki mereka menyentuh permukaan bumi. Kaki yang sama menyediakan moda transportasi awal. Kami menemukan roda, hewan piaraan, dan membangun kapal. Akhirnya, kami membuat sepeda, kereta api, mobil, pesawat terbang,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Hanya ada empat hari perdagangan di minggu libur yang dipersingkat, tapi itu tidak mencegah perkembangan beberapa divergensi besar. Sebuah 3,6 menyebar antara 0,7 kenaikan sektor Kesehatan Carethe minggu berkinerja terbaik dan kerugian 2,7 untuk Energi adalah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pemenang besar dalam sepekan terakhir ini adalah sektor Industrials, mencatat kenaikan 3,5 mengesankan. Sektor ini bergerak diam-diam sejak pertengahan Januari, dan sedikit menguat pada hari Jumat karena perusahaan tersebut menetapkan level tertinggi baru 10 bulan. Segmen transportasi. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Dolar A.S. tertekan dalam perdagangan minggu lalu. Penurunan 1,2 berarti bahwa rata-rata ETF internasional yang tidak memiliki lindung nilai mata uang memiliki keunggulan kinerja relatif 1.2. Mengalahkan grafik kinerja satu minggu adalah Kanada. IShares unhedged MSCI. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Seminggu yang lalu di kolom ini, saya membahas rotasi konstruktif yang saya lihat terjadi di pasar. Pengamatan saya termasuk pergerakan yang tampak lebih kuat daripada hanya menghitung mundur, kekuatan di luar sektor Utilitas dan Konsumer Staples yang defensif secara tradisional, dan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Saya memperhatikan apa yang akan saya anggap menarik di pasar saham baru-baru ini. Alih-alih pemain terlemah memasang pantulan terkuat saat demonstrasi bantuan, dan sebaliknya, tampaknya ada tindakan yang lebih konstruktif yang terjadi. Mungkin itu . Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Saham rally kuat minggu lalu dan mencoba untuk mengatasi tren negatif yang telah mendominasi aksi pasar tahun ini. Langkah-langkah pasar yang lebih luas mendekati penghentian awal bulan Februari mereka, namun hal itu jauh dari menghilangkan momentum negatif dan bahkan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Saham dibuka menguat ke sisi positifnya pagi ini, namun pertanyaan tentang keberlanjutan tergantung di udara. Investor telah melihat banyak optimis semacam itu dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, hanya untuk menyaksikan lonjakan awal memudar selama sisa sesi lainnya. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Jika Anda mengira keributan pasar baru-baru ini telah berjalan, maka minggu lalu dan aksi pasar pagi ini mungkin membuat Anda mempertimbangkan kembali posisi itu. Mudah terbuai dengan rasa tenang yang salah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Kecuali Anda banyak berinvestasi di saham yang berhubungan dengan kesehatan atau mengkonsep pasar, ada kemungkinan Anda menghasilkan uang minggu lalu. Bahkan jika Anda duduk dalam bentuk uang tunai, Anda masih memperoleh bunga senilai minggu meskipun remeh. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Kanada, tetangga kita di utara, sering diabaikan oleh investor A.S. yang mencari keterpaparan ke pasar saham asing. Salah satu alasannya adalah bahwa meskipun Kanada memang negara yang berbeda, tidak asing bagi A.S. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Konsumen sudah lama mengetahui adanya korelasi antara harga minyak mentah dan bensin. Ketika mereka mendengar harga minyak naik, mereka bersiap menghadapi benjolan yang tak terelakkan di pompa. Gerakan ke atas ini tampaknya terjadi hampir bersamaan, dengan bensin. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Saya biasanya skeptis ketika melihat headline memproklamirkan kinerja terburuk Dow Jones Industrial Average yang tahu berapa tahun. Begitulah yang terjadi akhir pekan ini, ketika Wall Street Journal mengatakan kinerja Dows terakhir. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Berita utama keuangan akhir pekan lalu memproklamirkan bahwa 2015 adalah yang terburuk dalam tujuh tahun terakhir di pasar keuangan. Jika Anda pikir itu akan menghasilkan awal yang segar dan positif untuk tahun 2016, berarti Anda hanya sebagian benar. . Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pekan lalu, kami menunjukkan bahwa meskipun ada klaim efisiensi pajak yang lebih tinggi, banyak ETF membuat distribusi kena pajak menjadi pemegang saham. Tidak seperti dividen, investor yang sepertinya memuja, investor cenderung kesal jika distribusinya terdiri dari capital gain. Itu Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Musim distribusinya, dan itu berarti semua reksa dana dan angka kinerja ETF memerlukan pengawasan ekstra. Hal ini terutama berlaku jika Anda berpikir untuk membeli atau menjual apapun berdasarkan kinerja jangka pendek. Sebelum Anda melakukan gerakan semacam itu, periksa. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Dana obligasi dengan imbal hasil tinggi, yang sering disebut dana sukuk-obligasi, telah mengalami masa-masa sulit. Setelah bertahun-tahun mencatat jumlah pengembalian positif (apresiasi modal dan dividen), kelas aset berada pada jalur untuk menutup 2015 dengan imbal hasil negatif. Dua ETF terbesar. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pengamat Fed sekarang memiliki sesuatu yang baru perlu dikhawatirkan. Beberapa telah kecewa selama beberapa tahun, menginginkan The Fed menyingkirkan kebijakan suku bunga nol (ZIRP) dan menaikkan suku bunga. Berdasarkan laporan kerja dan komentar bulan November. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Gray Thursday Black Friday Cyber ​​Monday Peritel negara bagian, dan perusahaan periklanan Madison Avenue mereka, mencoba yang terbaik untuk membuat Anda percaya bahwa Anda harus mengeluarkan uang dalam jumlah besar pada hari-hari tertentu ini. Namun, tidak ada yang bisa lebih jauh dari. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Jika pasar adalah pacuan kuda, dan banyak investor nampaknya berpegang pada pendapat itu, maka kuda sekarang membulatkan giliran empat dan bersiap-siap untuk peregangan rumah. Seperti penggemar balap kuda akan memberitahu Anda, itu adalah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Setiap minggu Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 665 poin bukan minggu yang baik. Namun, seseorang perlu melihat ke belakang hanya tiga bulan untuk menemukan contoh Dow merosot 1.017 poin dalam satu minggu kalender. Seperti itu Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Menurut Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja, pengusaha menciptakan 271.000 pekerjaan baru di bulan Oktober, yang jauh di atas perkiraan konsensus 190.000. Angka bulan Agustus dan September direvisi naik sebanyak 12.000 pekerjaan. Tingkat pengangguran turun menjadi 5,0, terendah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Dua minggu yang lalu kami membahas perbedaan dengan segmen pasar yang sedang berkembang, disorot oleh kenaikan 3,2 minggu untuk China dan 3,3 kerugian untuk Amerika Latin. Pekan lalu fokus beralih ke divergensi dengan AS, karena Technology melonjak 4,0 sementara Energy. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pekan lalu, kami mencatat perbedaan besar dalam kinerja berbagai segmen pasar yang sedang berkembang. Hal ini disorot oleh kenaikan 3,2 minggu untuk China sementara Amerika Latin mencatat kerugian 3,3. Pasar menunjukkan divergensi lagi minggu terakhir ini, tapi. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Bagan kinerja satu minggu sering condong ke satu arah atau lainnya. Karena sebagian besar kategori mewakili berbagai kelompok ekuitas, nampaknya masuk akal bahwa saham global cenderung bergerak bersama. Meskipun mereka mungkin menunjukkan korelasi dalam gerakan terarahnya,. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Kelompok-kelompok yang dipukuli pada akhir pekan ini rally dengan kuat minggu lalu. Energi berada di puncak grafik kinerja satu minggu setelah kehilangan 40 bulan sebelumnya. Amerika Latin adalah 2 di grafik dan berbagi sejarah lima belas bulan yang serupa dengan Energi. Pergi Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Enam minggu yang lalu, hari dimulai dengan pertarungan panik yang kuat. Banyak sekuritas dihentikan, dan peraturan yang berlaku untuk mencegah terulangnya Crash Flash 2010 menambah masalah. Dengan banyaknya saham individu yang tidak diperdagangkan, ETFs. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Di dunia finansial, ungkapan kali ini berbeda biasanya digunakan untuk menggambarkan situasi atau lingkungan yang secara historis menghasilkan hasil yang tidak menguntungkan, namun pembicara entah bagaimana yakin bahwa keadaan yang sama sekarang akan menghasilkan hasil yang baik. . Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. The Fed memutuskan untuk tidak menaikkan suku bunga pada pertemuan FOMC minggu lalu. Dalam konferensi pers pasca-pertemuan tersebut, Ketua Janet Yellen mengatakan bahwa dia percaya kenaikan suku bunga pertama akan terjadi sebelum akhir tahun. Jika demikian, itu akan meninggalkan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Meskipun pergerakan sehari-hari yang tampaknya kecil dalam tolok ukur pasar yang luas minggu lalu, volatilitas tetap ada dan merupakan bagian penting dari bentang alam. Ini menjadi lebih jelas saat melihat grafik kinerja satu minggu yang termasuk dalam mingguan kami. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Tingkat pengangguran AS turun ke level terendah 7 tahun di 5.1 pada bulan Agustus. Departemen Tenaga Kerja mengeluarkan laporan bulanannya pada hari Jumat yang lalu sebelum negara tersebut memulai akhir pekan Hari Buruh 3 hari tahunannya. Survei pendirian menyatakan bahwa pengusaha menambahkan 173.000 orang. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Ini adalah minggu liar yang melihat Dow merosot 1.089 poin pada menit-menit pembukaan dan Indeks Volatilitas CBOE, yang juga dikenal sebagai VIX dan indeks ketakutan, melonjak di atas 53. Seberapa signifikan pergerakan ini. Intraday. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Dow Jones Industrial Average, yang bisa dibilang indeks pasar saham paling terkenal dan paling dikenal di dunia, turun 530 poin pada hari Jumat. Untuk minggu ini, lebih dari 1.017 poin. Penghitungan sejak 19 Mei menambah. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Harga minyak mentah turun lagi pekan lalu, sebuah fakta disembunyikan oleh lonjakan harga ekuitas energi. Meskipun minyak mentah berjangka turun lebih dari 5, dan berakhir pekan ini di 42,50 per barel, Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) melonjak 3,5. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Sampr 500 kehilangan 1,2 minggu lalu dan Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 1,6, tapi itu tidak menceritakan keseluruhan cerita. Tersembunyi di balik rata-rata ini adalah segelintir segmen yang dapat menghasilkan keuntungan, dan kontingen industri yang agak besar. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Pasar saham Yunani kembali diperdagangkan hari ini setelah ditutup dalam lima minggu terakhir, dan saham di sana mencatat penurunan 23 pada bel pembukaan. Sepanjang periode lima minggu ini, masih mungkin untuk membeli dan menjual eksposur ke saham Yunani. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Ouch The SampP 500 kehilangan 2,1 minggu lalu, dan Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 2,8. Ini adalah nomor yang tidak menyenangkan bagi siapa saja yang memiliki saham, tapi seperti biasa, mereka tidak menceritakan keseluruhan ceritanya. Itu bukan hasil dari satu hari. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Indeks Harga Saham NASDAQ ditutup pada level tertinggi sepanjang masa pada hari Jumat, berakhir pada minggu ke 5.210. Anda mungkin ingat bahwa baru tiga bulan yang lalu indeks tersebut akhirnya melampaui level penutupan sebelumnya yang telah berdiri sejak 10 Maret 2000. Meskipun demikian. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Satu minggu lagi dan tenggat waktu Yunani lainnya. Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, tenggat waktu dan ancaman mengenai Yunani hampir tidak ada artinya. Yunani tidak menderita akibat kehilangan tenggat waktu dan mengabaikan ancaman. Ini mengingatkan saya pada orangtua yang kurang ajar mencoba mendisiplinkan. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Anda telah mendengar tentang kemungkinan Grexit selama bertahun-tahun. Sekarang sudah waktunya sudah tiba. Selama akhir pekan, pemilih di Yunani sangat memilih tidak pada referendum yang dirancang untuk menentukan apakah negara harus menerima penghematan terbaru. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Mereka melakukannya Orang-orang Yunani menutup bank mereka, menutup pasar saham mereka, mengendalikan mata uang, membatasi penarikan ATM sampai 60 Euro, dan memberlakukan kontrol modal lainnya. Bagan kinerja 1 minggu menunjukkan bahwa saham Uni Moneter Eropa berkinerja terbaik. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Yunani telah memainkan permainan pedang yang berbahaya terkait pembayaran hutangnya, permintaan untuk mengurangi persyaratan bailout, kemungkinan kebangkrutan, dan meninggalkan mata uang Euro. Akibatnya, imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah dua tahunnya berjalan setinggi 28. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Sebagian besar aksi pasar yang liar tampaknya akan berlangsung di tempat-tempat internasional tahun ini. Saya telah menulis sebelumnya tentang sub-kelas saham China yang dikenal sebagai saham A, dan roket yang mereka jalani pada tahun ini. Minggu lalu Utilitas, yang sering dianggap sebagai sektor yang paling aman dan konservatif, dipukul karena kehilangan 4,1 minggu lalu. Tidak ada yang aman, konservatif atau defensif tentang itu. The Russell 2000 Index saham small-cap, yang sering dianggap sebagai barometer agresivitas investor, mengungguli Dow 30 sebesar 2,1 minggu lalu. Tidak ada konservatif tentang itu, baik. Saham-saham China telah banyak mengalami kenaikan tahun ini. Reli meningkat pada awal April dengan SPDR SP China (GXC) melonjak 14,9 lebih tinggi untuk bulan tersebut. Setelah kemajuan besar dari jenis ini, investor harus mengharapkan beberapa memberi dan menerima karena harga menyesuaikan diri dengan ketinggian baru. Sebut itu konsolidasi, mencerna keuntungan, dukungan dan pengisian, atau istilah apa pun yang Anda inginkan, faktanya tetap bahwa volatilitas jangka pendek adalah bagian dari proses ini. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Sebagian besar berita keuangan akhir pekan lalu dan pagi ini terfokus pada potensi perolehan Time Warner Cable (TWC) oleh Charter Communications (CHTR). Meskipun kedua perusahaan ini mungkin nama rumah tangga, namun jumlahnya tidak terlalu besar. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Teritorial Samudera Hindia Inggris (BIOT) adalah sekelompok kecil pulau di tengah Samudra Hindia. Terletak sekitar setengah jalan antara Afrika dan Singapura, ini hampir sama dengan antah berantah yang bisa diperoleh seseorang. . Seperti yang kami sarankan minggu lalu, rotasi pasar saat ini tidak berjalan dengan lancar karena ukurannya yang masif dan start mendadak. Pekan lalu, banyak segmen pasar bergerak berlawanan arah dua minggu sebelumnya. Sejauh ini, ini tampaknya merupakan dukungan dan pengisian normal yang berlawanan dengan awal yang salah bagi para pemimpin baru yang baru muncul. Satu pengecualian adalah sektor Bahan, yang terus mendaki rangking. Silakan lihat PDF untuk rangking, data kepemilikan dan kinerja. Perputaran kecil aktivitas rotasi sektor yang kami saksikan bulan lalu menjadi gelombang besar minggu lalu. Mantan pimpinan Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, dan Small-Cap Growth semua mengalami pemukulan. Simultaneously, the former laggards of Energy, Materials, and Mega-Cap stocks . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The NASDAQ finally did it. The Dow and the SampP 500 both did it eight years ago. The Russell 2000 did it eleven years ago. The it we are talking about is recovering from the Tech crash of 2000 2002. Making . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The financial media did their best to make Fridays market decline seem much worse than it was. It would appear they were trying to scare investors. Television headline banners had market plunge in bold ribbons across the screen, and the shows producers . Chinas heyday of double-digit growth is not likely to return anytime soon, but perhaps investors are starting to realize that 6 or 7 growth is pretty darn good. During the final quarter of 2014, job growth averaged 324,000 per month. For the first quarter of 2015 that figure plunged to just 197,000 per montha 39 decline. Economists are left wondering if this is an anomaly or a sign the economy is weakening. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Do you think stocks are expensive, cheap, or fairly valued at this time It seems many companies believe there are bargains available in todays market. Last week we mentioned the announcement by H.J. Heinz, a privately held company, to take over Kraft . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. In the days and weeks leading up to last weeks FOMC meeting, it seems the market feared the prospect of a June interest rate hike. The market was fixated on the prospect of the word patient being removed from the post-meeting statement . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Webster defines hedge as something that provides protection or defense. Hedge funds became popular in the 1990s, although many market observers believe the name is misleading because many (perhaps most) do not hedge. Instead, hedge funds are known for taking large, often . February employment reports released before the market opened Friday. Markets focused on the positive aspects of the reports, which unfortunately resulted in a negative reaction. The reason for this is the belief the Fed now has the data it needs to start raising interest rates sooner rather than later. The fear of higher rates sparked selloffs in bonds, stocks and commodities alike. The higher yields available in the U.S. should attract more foreign capital, and the dollar surged in value. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Last week, the Federal Communications Commission voted to regulate broadband internet as a utility. Its called net neutrality, and the name itself sounds like a reasonable goal. However, the actual regulations the FCC voted to approve remain a secret. It seems the . Last week, Wal-Mart Stores announced it would increase the minimum hourly wage for 500,000 of its employees to 9 in the next couple months. While workers will enjoy that raise soon, they can also look forward to another bump to at least 10 an hour by February 2016. Even though the big box store is the countrys largest private employer, the move wont have that big of a direct impact on the dollars available for consumers to spend. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Many of the largest upside movers in the ETF world last week were associated with either PIIGS or Russia. PIIGS, as you probably recall, is the acronym given to the countries of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. These five nations were . This past week, the level of divergence was much larger than usual. From a sector perspective, there was a difference of 9.5 between the 6.1 gain of energy and the 3.4 drop of utilities. Removing the strongest and weakest still results in a 7.8 spread between the 6.1 jump of telecom and the 1.6 retreat of real estate. Commodities as a whole rose 3.6 on the week, while gold prices plunged 3.8. Some single-commodity funds posted even larger gains, such as the 11.2 surge of iPath SP GSCI Crude Oil ETN, creating even larger divergences. A secondary effect of quantitative easing programs is that they tend to weaken the host countrys currency, providing it with a competitive advantage. Any advantage the U.S. had in this regard started disappearing in mid-2014 when the end of U.S. quantitative easing was in sight. The weak-currency advantage now belongs to Europe. The European Central Bank has been wanting to get in on the QE action for quite some time, but there has been stiff opposition to stepping off that cliff. Arguments against the move are both legal and political. Despite the opposition, on January 22, the ECBs Governing Council revealed its plan to purchase about 1.1 trillion euros (1.3 trillion) in government bonds as part of an asset-purchase program. The purchases will amount to 60 billion euros (70 billion) a month through September 2016. In the world of currency trading, value changes of 2 in a week often receive the big move label. As such, plain vanilla currency trading might be boring. To make things interesting, traders typically employ large amounts of leverage in the currency markets, and we do mean large. With stocks, investors are typically limited to 2x leverage. There are ETFs that employ 3x leverage, but they typically reset on a daily basis to avoid total ruin. Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its final employment reports for 2014. As always, the figures are likely to be adjusted in coming months, but until that time the year-end figures are now in the books. The headline numbers tell a positive story of 252,000 new jobs being added in December and the unemployment rate dropping two ticks to 5.6. The words behind the headlines claim 2014 was the best year for hiring since 1999, with an average of 246,000 jobs added each month. The 5.6 unemployment rate is the lowest since 2008. Crude oil at a multi-year low, the dollar at a multi-year high, interest rates near historic lows, commodities declining, and stocks meandering higher. These were the trends and market conditions prevalent at the end of 2014. Today, the calendar reads 2015. Investors are curious as to whether or not these trends will continue. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. If you thought the price of crude oil was dropping fast, then take a look at natural gas. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) plunged 12.5 last week, and the trading week was only three-and-a-half days long. It is down 17.4 . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The years final FOMC meeting concluded last Wednesday. Prior to the meeting, many analysts and Fed watchers were speculating as to whether or not the Fed would remove for a considerable period from its statement. Indeed, the Fed did eliminate the phrase . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Its hard to believe, but there are two camps on the subject of low energy prices. I will make my bias clear right up front by stating I am firmly in the low energy prices are good for the economy camp. As . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Despite our Energy benchmark rising 0.6, it is generally acknowledged that it was a tough week for nearly everything related to the Energy sector. Oil prices continued to fall for the week, and crude oil futures are lower still in todays early . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. A week ago, we outlined the dismal performance of commodities this year. Little did we know it was going to get much worse before getting any better. The Thanksgiving holiday shortened the trading week to only 23 hours instead of the usual . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. A week ago, we lamented the dismal performance of commodities this year. Natural gas was among the worst, but then a blizzard hit North America sending freezing temperatures into nearly every state and dumping more than six feet of snow around Buffalo, . The performance of commodities in 2014 has been downright dreadful. Crude oil has been making headlines recently, as the former 100 commodity is now trading below 80. Among commodities, crude oils dismal performance may be the most visible, but it is far from being the only dramatic story. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly employment reports on the first Friday of every month. For the past five years or more, they have easily been the most closely watched and highly anticipated monthly economic releases. Last Friday, the Bureau issued the October reports, but for some strange reason they didnt gather much attention. Markets appeared to be ready to settle down and digest their recent gains when out of the blue, Japan ignites the rallys afterburners. Japans central bank said it was prepared to pump huge amounts of new stimulus into its economy. Meanwhile, the countrys main government pension fund revealed its plan to bolster the economy and security prices. Supposedly, the two announcements were not a coordinated effort, but not everyone is convinced. A week ago, the one-week performance chart showed mixed results. The reason for this was the early part of the week consisted of large declines while the latter part contained the start of a bounce. Not all market segments began their rebounds in unison, and the magnitude of the declines were not symmetrical with the bounces. In the end, Pacific ex-Japan topped the chart with a 3.2 gain while Health Care was on the bottom, posting a 2.1 decline. Markets produced another wild and wooly ride for investors last week. Fear and panic ruled the action during the first part of the week, culminating in the Dow Jones Industrial Average registering a 460-point intraday plunge on Wednesday. At that time, the Dow was off more than 688 points for the week, economists feared Europe was headed for recession, and the American public was listening to a not-so-reassuring press conference from the CDC. Three months ago, we put the title Assessing The Damage on our weekly update. It followed a week of investor angst and scary media headlines. At that time, we concluded Bottom line, the broad stock market barometers held losses to less than 1 for the week and most bonds rose. Despite the steeper plunges in Europe, small cap stocks, and select industries, the bull market is still intact. This week, our conclusion is not as favorable. It is easy to be skeptical of government reports. For example, one of the most widely watched government data releases is the monthly employment situation report. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics claimed its August figure was off by nearly 27. Seems there were 180,000 new jobs created instead of the 142,000 reported. However, we dont know for sure if this is the extent of the error, because in early November the Bureau will revise the August number again. An era is ending at Pimco. Bill Gross, a company founder and world-renowned bond trading guru, left the firm on Friday. His announcement took the market, and company executives, by surprise. Gross will be moving to Janus, whose stock took a 40 rocket ride on the news, although it is giving back some of that today. Pimco is part of the German firm Allianz, which headed down about 7. If you were looking forward to having a Scotland ETF in your portfolio soon, you will need to put your aspirations back on the shelf for the time being. Residents there voted against independence in a closely watched referendum last Thursday. Although the measure to dissolve the 307-year union was defeated, it doesnt necessarily put the kibosh on a Scotland ETF forever. The U.S. is losing the competitive devaluation war. Throughout history, youve probably heard various presidential administrations state that a strong U.S. dollar is in our countrys best interest or something very similar. Often times, this was accompanied by actions or policies seeking a contrary result, namely that of weakening the dollar. The debate on whether a strong dollar or weak dollar is better for the country depends on your point of view. The European Central Bank caught investors off-guard on Thursday when it cut its key lending interest rate from 0.15 to 0.05 and pushed its bank deposit rate deeper into negative territory (from -0.1 to -0.2). The ECB also unveiled additional stimulus measures including the purchase of asset-backed securities. Last week, the SP 500 poked its head above 2000 for the first time ever and even managed to hang on to close the week above that level. Friday being the last trading day of August means the venerable index also finished the month in record territory. Not too bad for a market and economy that cant seem to get any respect. Stock market results dont always correlate with investor expectations though. It is now September, and a new month always has the potential to change everything. If you have the financial news turned on this morning, then you are aware the SP 500 is trading above the 2,000 level for the first time in its history. Investors are often enamored with large round numbers, but this is only the second three-zero number the SP has encountered. A company that many investors indelibly link with master limited partnerships is exiting the MLP business. Heres mengapa. Some market categories produced nice gains last week. Unfortunately, many of the best winners were from groups that have been the weakest recently. We say unfortunately because this could imply last week was just a brief countertrend bounce instead of signaling the end of the downturn and the start of a new rally. A market fueled by Fed stimulus does not take kindly to the thought of that stimulus being taken away. For the week, the SP 500 was flat and had no daily moves greater than 0.5 in either direction. The calm and subtle action of this major average belies the wide swings taking place beneath the surface. From an investment perspective, Russia has been performing poorly. Not just last week but for the past three years. Stocks declined last week, but you might be pleasantly surprised to learn the losses were not as large as some financial media outlets want you to believe. Despite the shortcomings, failures, and accusations of fraud, the Department of Homeland Security awarded USIS a brand new 190 million dollar contract last week. The best thing we can say about first quarter GDP is that there will be no more revisions. The situation in Iraq seems to be getting worse every day and appears to be heading toward another full-scale war. Energy-related companies are benefiting from the strife. Dramatic headlines can throw some investors off their games. Dont panic and stick with solid investment strategies. It took a while. It took a long while. It took longer than any other recovery of the past 70 years, but U.S. payrolls finally reversed the downturn of the past six years. The U.S GDP shrank by 1 during the first quarter. Small cap stocks have been lagging their large cap brethren for the better part of the past nine weeks. Looking at todays one-week performance numbers paints a different picture. The run for India ETFs heated up with positive performances in the 8-9 range. The latest run came as the country elected Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and a parliament majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Small cap stocks have been taking a beating for a longer time than many would have imagined. However, its the magnitude of their relative underperformance that is the true concern. A 6.5 unemployment rate was the Federal Reserves line in the sand starting about 17 months ago. This was supposed to be the point where it would consider removing its extreme accommodation regarding interest rates. Earlier this year, with the unemployment rate hovering around 6.7, the Fed removed that line, stating the unemployment rate didnt fully reflect problems within the labor market. Stock performance diverged widely by both sector and geographic locale last week. Much like the weather this spring, stocks have been changing direction quite rapidly. Apparently not content with the recent acquisition of the Crimean Peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin is intensifying efforts to take over portions of eastern Ukraine. This month, the establishment survey claimed the economy achieved a major milestone with the 8.8 million jobs lost during the recession now replaced. This purported milestone is not a milestone at all. Heres mengapa. Recently much of the air came out of biotech, solar and homebuilder stocks. But dont count them out just yet. Political risk is no stranger to the biotech industry. Last weeks market action looked like a traditional flight to safety. Gold was up, bonds advanced, utility stocks rallied, and the VIX volatility index spiked, while the rest of the market faltered. The Labor Department released the February jobs report on Friday. Once again, it surprised economists this time to the upside. Headlines about Russia have shifted from Olympic metals to potential invasion. Its now been five years since the recession ended according to official statistics. Much like the consumer skepticism regarding how inflation is measured, millions of unemployed and underemployed citizens are struggling with the notion the recession has ended at all, let alone five years ago. With previously out-of-favor categories posting great short-term performance figures recently, it is natural to wonder if this is the start of a major shift in market strength or just a transient bounce. Selling dominated stock market activity early in the week before action turned positive on Thursday and Friday. Both days produced broad market gains of more than 1, which may not seem to be a grand accomplishment, but it might be better than you realize. In times of market trouble or uncertainty, various defensive groups often begin to display superior relative strength. Most of the time, this implies these groups tend to fall less than the broader market. Heres one group to pay careful attention to. Anyone thinking emerging market equities were a bargain at the beginning of the year has had a painful month. The seemingly effortless stock market gains of 2013 might not come so easily in 2014. Another month, another employment report, and another controversy. Heres the culprit. Stocks continued to climb into the close of 2013. Although many investors were itching to lock in profits, they held their positions a few days longer. Heres mengapa. Probabilities point to 2013 being a great year for domestic stocks, a mixed year for international stocks, and a down year for bonds and commodities. This weeks FOMC meeting, the last one of 2013, was long anticipated to be a non-event. Think again. Its generally believed the employment reports for October were built on transient and unreliable data as the partial government shutdown played havoc with the survey results. Therefore, it might be more instructive to look at the two-month changes of the November report in the hopes they filter out the temporary glitches. Stocks rallied after the Fed announced it will begin to taper its asset purchases in January. Heres mengapa. Retailing is big business, even within the fund world. For investors, post-Thanksgiving weekend sales analysis will be the first glimpse of which retailers are likely to succeed and which ones may flop this season. Eventually, stocks will have a pullback, a correction, and another bear market. In the meantime, the market is making fools of those prematurely declaring a top. The delayed employment report came out on Friday showing 204,000 new jobs in October. This number is significant by numerous measures. Here are four. Europe continues to set the pace for global markets, and stocks there appear to have completed a minor pullback. Heres how to play it. Many market segments are hitting new highs every week, or so it seems. Heres why that may not be the case. Congress reached a deal last week. Unfortunately, lawmakers did not really resolve much, choosing the easier course of just extending the deadlines instead. As little as a month ago, stocks and bonds shrugged off any concerns about the looming budget and debt limit deadlines.That no longer seems to be the case. The so-called government shutdown is nothing more than a sideshow. The real event is debt ceiling discussions. Last week, the Republican-controlled House voted in favor of a bill to extend government funding through mid-December. It had a catch though, as it included a one-year delay in the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). As expected, the Democrat-controlled Senate rejected the House bill and produced their own plan to extend funding without any changes to ObamaCare. Do you remember the last debt ceiling discussions and the fiscal cliff Well, the debt ceiling discussions have returned, and the indications are that this round will be just as contemptuous as the last. This weeks FOMC meeting is probably deserving of the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting in years title that many analysts are bestowing on it. The reason, in case you are not aware, is because this is likely to be the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve that they will announce the commencement of tapering. Never before has the Fed been in a mode of making 85 billion monthly purchases of bonds. Therefore, it stands to reason, the Fed has never before had to cut back or eliminate those purchases. The unemployment rate improved again, dropping from 7.4 to 7.3. It sounds great, until you understand how the new number was derived. The prospect of another war sent stock prices down in every corner of the world last week. Last Thursday, the Nasdaq shut down for three hours in the middle of the trading day in what has been dubbed the Flash Freeze. During the trading halt, Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) officials were conspicuous by their absence. They were giving the press little to no indication about the nature or extent of the problems. The market, as measured by the SP 500, is near an all-time high. The venerable benchmark closed Friday just 3.1 below the peak it established two weeks prior. Our one-week performance figures for various market segments show a market that is not moving synchronously. A massive 11.1 difference between the top and bottom performing groups makes it all too obvious. Removing the two extreme categories still reveals a huge 7.1 performance difference. It seems the worlds GDP is growing at a 3.44 annual rate, with 2.01 attributed to developed markets and 1.43 coming from emerging markets. This is the first time in about six years that the contribution from developed markets has been larger. The fact that emerging markets have lost their lead in growth contribution apparently comes as a shocker. A 0.2 percent reduction in the unemployment rate should be good news, but a closer look at the underlying data shows the headline number is misleading. Major market averages posted nearly flat-line results for the week, although there were day-to-day movements. The one-week performance chart shows more losing categories than winning ones, with most international equity categories coming out on the plus side thanks to help from a weak U.S. dollar. Disappointing earnings from tech heavyweights Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) marred what was otherwise a good week for stocks. Downbeat earnings outlooks werent confined to the tech sector though, its just the others didnt interfere with the market rally. It was a good week for the markets. Every category in our one-week performance chart, except the U.S. dollar, posted a gain. Even gold, commodities, emerging markets, and bonds had positive returns. Once again, most of the upside action ties back to remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bond prices fell immediately after the release of employment reports. Analysts and traders believe the employment gains were sufficient to keep the Fed on track for tapering its bond purchase program later this year. Consensus is now building for the Fed to begin reducing its purchases at its September 18 meeting. Members of the Federal Reserve were out in force last week, trying to calm investor fears. They did their best to convince market participants that the 85 billion in monthly bond purchases were still taking place and would likely continue for many more months. This hand-holding operation by the Fed was required due to negative market reactions after Chairman Bernanke spoke on May 22 and June 19. Seems that investors misunderstood the message the Fed actually wanted to convey. Prior to May 22, the consensus opinion regarding the Feds bond purchase program assumed buying would start scaling back late this year or early 2014 and end sometime in 2014. On May 22, Ben Bernanke spooked investors by suggesting the tapering process could begin as early as this month or next. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed reassured everyone the prior consensus was correct. Despite the global significance of the G-8 and other multi-country meetings this week, the outcome of the FOMC meeting is likely to be the most newsworthy to investors around the world. The Feds policy of keeping accommodative measures in place as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 does not face any foreseeable challenges. Last Friday, the jobs report showed the unemployment rate ticking up to the 7.6 level for May from 7.5 in April. The 175,000 new jobs number happens to be above the recent average and somewhat better than expected, but it is not enough for a healthy economic recovery. High yielding stocks have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of low bond yields the past few years. As bond and money market yields dropped to historically low levels, investors seeking income had to turn elsewhere. Dividend paying stocks seemed like a logical choice, although it is not entirely clear if investors truly understand the risk trade-offs. Japan grabbed the headlines last week after the Nikkei 225 plunged 7.3 in one day. Weak economic reports out of China presumably provided the catalyst for traders to take profits, but the selling intensified as the day progressed. Japanese stocks have been performing very well this year, and it would be easy to make the case they were overextended and vulnerable to a pullback. But I dont believe this marks the end of the bull market for Japan. Stocks continue to perform well, while bonds, commodities and precious metals paint a different picture. Once the yield for 10-year Treasury securities breaks below 2, there is not much more they can give. The latest yield decline ended abruptly on May 3, just north of 1.6. However, despite better yields from stocks, and forecasts for a massive rotation from bonds to stocks, 10-year Treasury yields have not climbed back above the 2 threshold. At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting early this month, the Fed said it plans to continue the bond purchases until the labor market improves substantially and the purchase amounts may increase or decrease to adjust for labor market or inflation changes. The new strategy map has neither a start date nor an ongoing timetable. Various reports take on different degrees of importance as the economic cycle progresses. The monthly jobs report, which the government releases on the first Friday of each month, appears to be the most anticipated at this stage of the cycle. If it seems like the jobs report has been the most important for a few years now, then you are not alone. Your mind is not playing tricks on you. Stocks, bonds, commodities, and even GDP bounced back last week. In typical bounce-back fashion, the weakest groups of recent months were among the biggest gainers last week. Additionally, many of this years leaders did not participate in the advance. Then again, since the leadership categories were already trading at new highs, there was no need or ability for them to bounce. Gold had another tough week, dropping 5.9 on top of its 5.7 loss of the previous week. Silver took an even bigger lump, plunging another 11.4. The weakness in precious metals spilled over to oil and broad based commodity funds as well. Not all commodities felt the pain however, as natural gas, coffee, and cocoa all posted impressive gains. April 13, 2013 Equity investors are having a good 2013, as long as they havent been concentrating their investments in emerging market equities. It is not clear they are enjoying the ride though, as consumer sentiment took a tumble, retail sales are not up to snuff, and investors are getting nervous . The first quarter of 2013 is now in the history books, although much of the analysis is still incomplete. Undoubtedly, youve heard about the new record highs for the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new highs in early March, while the SP 500 finally did so on the last trading day of the month. That is if you ignore dividends, otherwise those records were broken months ago. This mornings headlines of Cyprus Bailout Approved sounds like good news at first, until you read the details. Cyprus became headline news today as European officials came up with a bailout plan for the country over the weekend. The proposed controversial plan involves taxing Cypriot bank deposits. Fridays employment report shows that more Americans are working and the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 to 7.7. These monthly reports contain a vast amount of data, and its always interesting to see some of the math behind the headline numbers. The closer the deadline for government sequestration got, the more investors seemed to ignore it. Some government officials tried to create panic, claiming it would cause wide spread devastation and destruction. However, many investors remain skeptical of these claims. The G-20 developed and emerging market economies doesnt want you to call the competitive devaluations taking place a currency war. The G-20 met in Moscow over the weekend, but the outcome remains almost as controversial as the topic. There were just four trading days last week. For the SP 500, it began and ended on positive notes, but the two negative days sandwiched in between were the dominate force. As a result, the SPs weekly winning streak failed to extend itself to seven weeks. If you were listening to the pundits instead of looking at the actual numbers, you may be surprised to learn the actual decline for the SP 500 was a mere 0.3 for the week, less than its average intraday volatility. So yes, the market uptrend is still intact. January is now behind us, and it turned out to be a very good month for investors. Stocks maintained a steady climb, making it very easy to enjoy the ride. It will be difficult for February to repeat that performance, but we will welcome the attempt. Stocks of the European Monetary Union led all categories last week with some help from an appreciating euro. Domestic consumer discretionary was also strong as retailers and homebuilders contributed to upside action. Energy and industrials top the one-week performance chart today. Both sectors carry an economic cyclical classification, so it is encouraging to see them at the top of the list. Their strength suggests the economy is picking up steam, which could help sustain the market rally. The second week of trading for 2013 wasnt nearly as exciting as the first. However, most markets managed to post gains. Given the sharp run-up that occurred in the first week, I guess we should be thankful there wasnt a pullback. Stocks rallied strongly, posting spectacular gains in a four-day week shortened by the New Year holiday. The last minute bill to avert the Fiscal Cliff gets most of the credit, even though not much was actually accomplished. Elected officials extended tax cuts for individuals making less than 400,000 and bought a little time by pushing the deadline on spending cuts out another two months. 169 2017 Grup Newsletter Forbes. Seluruh hak cipta. Penggunaan, duplikasi, atau penjualan layanan ini, atau data yang tercantum di sini, sangat dilarang. Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Forbes Forbes MagazineCriticizing the All Weather Portfolio Editor8217s Note: This is a guest post from Kathryn Cicoletti, Founder of Makin8217SenseBabe, LLC, where she tries to make learning money topics a more enjoyable experience. Prior to this endeavor, she spent 10 years working with an asset management firm evaluating hedge funds for possible investment. Her new company sells subscriptions (12 a month) to investment tools, a monthly newsletter, and email access to her. The videos on the site (free to you) are a pretty fun way to learn a lot of good stuff about personal finance and investing. This post was very different from most of the guest posts I see, and the initial draft came across as a damning indictment of a portfolio and its promoters. I could tell she was pretty fired up, so I figured the portfolio was investing in whole life insurance and loaded mutual funds or something. It wasn8217t, but the post is still pretty fun, and it will introduce the concept of a 8220risk parity8221 portfolio to many readers, so I8217m going to run it. Kathryn and I have no financial relationship. The job of a good graphic designer is to fill the gap between information and understanding. I didnt come up with that myself. I stole that line from a movie I just watched called Design is One. The movie is about Italian designers Lella and Massimo Vignelli, who developed the American Airlines logo and the signage for the New York City subways. In the financial world theres a huge gap between information and understanding that information. Bridging the gap between financial information and understanding it is not fun because you have to type more words to explain things, which I have just done. But the pain of typing too many words isnt the real issue with bridging this gap. The real issue is most people who write financial articles are: Afraid that if they explain things in laymans terms, they look less sophisticated than their high-finance peers, and Out of touch with how few people, on their own, can bridge the gap between financial information and understanding because they dont work in the financial world. The latest culprit is Tony Robbins. He has a new book out, called MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom. I first read about this on Meb Fabers blog back in October. A few days later I listened to Tim Ferriss interview Tony Robbins. Ferris and Robbins talk about Robbinss in-depth conversations with some of the largest money managers in the world. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund on the planet says Robbins while talking to Ferriss. I knew we were in trouble when he started talking about hedge fund managers and planets in the same sentence. Here we go, I thought. And we went. The All Weather Portfolio Explained Robbins explained that the All Weather Portfolio starts with Dalios idea that there are really only four things that move asset prices: inflation, deflation, rising economic growth, and declining economic growth. Robbins then explains that he learned from Dalio that there are four possible economic seasons that will impact asset prices: Higher than expected inflation Lower than expected inflation (or even deflation) Higher than expected economic growth, and Lower than expected economic growth The idea of a 8220risk parity portfolio8221 is that you should have 25 of your risk spread out between each of these economic environments, or seasons. Per Robbins, the key thing to pay attention to is risk, rather than dollar amount. Robbins says that since stocks can be roughly 2X riskier than bonds, his risk-based asset allocation (i.e. The All Weather Portfolio) places roughly twice as much money in bonds as in stocks. The quantification of this is interesting, since it doesn8217t define the risk being discussed. For example, if the risk you8217re discussing is the risk of your portfolio not keeping up with inflation, short term treasury bonds and money market funds have lots of risk. But if your definition of risk is short-term volatility, or dispersion of possible returns, then obviously stocks have a lot more risk than bonds, probably more than 2X -ed So taking into consideration risk, Dalio told Robbins that the All Weather Portfolio looks like this: Not The Permanent Portfolio In some ways, The All Weather Portfolio concept is similar to The Permanent Portfolio that started back in the 80s. The Permanent Portfolio suggests 25 allocations split between four different asset classes. Specifically: 25 in U.S. stocks 25 in long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds 25 in cash 25 in precious metals (gold) The two biggest differences between these two portfolios are: The original Permanent Portfolio includes a higher allocation to cash and metals like gold (zero and 15 respectively for the All Weather Portfolio). While the current allocations to The Permanent Portfolio are slightly different than this 25252525 split, The Permanent Portfolio does not use a risk based asset allocation strategy. Meaning, they divide up the assets evenly without taking into consideration that gold is much more volatile than bonds and should potentially have a lower allocation not to mention the likelihood of each of the three scenarios- inflation, deflation and 8220tight money8221- it is designed to address are different.-ed Issues with Robbins as a 8220Graphic Designer8221 The most concerning part of this interview was when Robbins tries to be the graphic designer (fill the gap between information and understanding) and help us understand what that portfolio means: In laymans terms, youre protected, he says. When I saw these words: youre protected, my heartburn started to flare up. Playing on peoples fears and positioning this portfolio as if its their saving grace is just wrong. There is not a single strategy, including hiding your money under your mattress, that you can use to tell investors youre protected. This is a broad-brush statement that Robbins uses for The All Weather Portfolio that just isnt true. But rather than rant on about all the ridiculous statements Robbins made about this All Weather Strategy, I will walk you through the important points you need to know if youre thinking of implementing this investment strategy with your money. I listed Robbinss and Dalios key points from their conversation and then, wearing one or more of the following three hats, explain the issue with the point: Explainer I am the Italian graphic designer in this case, building a bridge with the information Robbins gives you so you can understand what hes saying. Endorse RobbinsDalio has a good point. Kindly calling BS This part of the strategy doesnt make sense i.e. be careful. All of these quotes are from this article and Ferrisss podcast interview with Robbins. Claim: The Backtested Portfolio had Fewer Down Years Than the SampP 500 (Dalios) Pure Alpha Fund, according to Barrons, has lost money only 3 times in 20 years, and in 2010 he produced 40 returns for his key clients. Endorse the SampP has lost money 4 times in the last 20 years through 2013. One point for DalioRobbins. Write that down because I think its the only one. Claim: Every Investment Has A Season, so Put 55 of your Money Into Bonds Tony, when looking back through history, there is one thing we can see with absolute certainty: every investment has an ideal environment in which it flourishes. In other words, theres a season for everything. Explainer 8211 Remember if you own a bond that just means you gave out a loan to, say, to a company or a government. They pay you interest in return. If its a 10-year bond, they pay you interest for 10 years, then you get back the money you loaned them. If you own a bond and youre receiving 5 in interest per year and the company now only pays 3 in interest per year to whoever gives them a loan (buys a new bond), your bond is more valuable because it pays higher interest. This is why when interest rates decline, exisiting bonds increase in value. Kindly calling BS This is the most hysterical part of this whole thing. Dalio lets the cat out of the bag but Robbins ignores it. The All Weather Portfolio suggests a 55 allocation to bonds. With interest rates steadily declining, we have been in a bull market for bonds for the last 30 years. So when Dailio says every investment has an ideal environment, we have been in an ideal environment for bonds which is 55 of the portfolio He serves it up for us, but Robbins missed this. A 55 allocation to bonds AFTER interest rates have been declining for the last 30 years, giving bonds a huge tailwind, is not an all weather allocation. Thats a one-season allocation that needs a new (lower) allocation to reflect where we are in the interest rate cycle. Claim: You Can Make Up For The Lower Returns of Bonds By Using Long Term Bonds I quickly remembered (why there is such a large percentage in bonds) its about balancing risk, not the dollar amounts. And by going out to longer-term (duration) bonds this allocation will bring a potential for higher returns. Explainer 8211 the longer the time frame you loan out your money (say 30 years instead of 5 years), the higher the interest rate you will receive. This is because you have to be compensated for having your money tied up for a longer period of time. Unfortunately, when interest rates rise, all bonds lose value immediately, but long term bonds lose far more than short term bonds. Kindly calling BS Where are my Tums Again, they are completely disregarding interest rate risk because this has not shown up over the last thirty-years. These allocations are looking at what has worked over the last thirty-years, i.e. driving while looking in the rear view mirror. Call me at 1-800- KathrynsBackTestRUs and I can put together a great historical track record allocating 55 of my money to an asset class that was a shoe-in over the last thirty years. To be fair, while bonds have had a heck of a run over the last 30 years, despite the falling interest rate 8220tailwind,8221 they were outperformed by stocks and real estate over that time period.-ed Claim: Commodities and Gold Protect Against Inflation He rounded out the portfolio with 7.5 in gold and 7.5 in commodities. You need to have a piece of that portfolio that will do well with accelerated inflation so you would want a percentage in gold and commodities. These have high volatility. Because there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds. Explainer Robbins is trying to say that gold and commodities have a low correlation to stocks and bonds in an inflationary environment. Endorse but Still Kindly calling BS two points: 1) Theyre suggesting you put 15 of your portfolio in an asset class that is going to make money in an environment that were nowhere close to experiencing. The Fed is targeting inflation near 2.5. Meaning, they would like prices to be rising 2.5 year-over-year. This is their sweet spot for where they think inflation needs to be in order to feel ok about the economy and unemployment. If prices are going down (deflation), thats bad because it means demand is low, and thats not good for the economy. Look at that chart. We are nowhere near an inflationary environment. 2). His last sentence doesnt even make sense: These have high volatility. Because there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds. Commodities have high volatility because they have huge swings in performance (up or down) at any given moment regardless of if were in an inflationary environment or not. If there are concerns over liquidity in the market and you just want your cash back fast, gold can sell-off when stocks sell-off, regardless of anything to do with inflation. Commodities having large swings in performance (aka volatility) is not dependent on rapid inflation. What is he talking about. My best guess is he meant to say this: 8220Gold and commodities do have high volatility8230But8230 there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds.-ed Ok I will end with this because this is already too long. Claim: You Should Use Back-tested Data to Design Your Portfolio Robbins: When my own investment team showed me the back-tested performance numbers of this All Seasons portfolio I was astonished. I will never forget it. Kindly calling BS: I think you should. I am very familiar with back-tested performance. In fact, I raised a lot of money using back-tested performance. Most institutional investors understand the meaning of back-testing, and that past performance is no indicator of future performance. I know because I was raked over the coals in many board meetings by trustees for using a back-tested track record. Institutional and other sophisticated investors understand the limitations of back-testing and will murder you for it in the boardroom when youre pitching to them. If they do decide to invest in a strategy that doesnt have a current track record and all they have to go on is back-tested numbers, they know it. However, retail investors, such as those who will buy Tony Robbinss book, typically do not understand the limitations of back-tested track-records. Why would you You dont have a board, you dont have an investment staff, you dont have a CIO, you dont have an investment consult telling you this. Although most doctors get this intuitively, due to their courses in evidence-based medicine where retrospective studies are readily shown to be inferior to prospective studies. -ed Sure you have a financial advisor but most of the time they just want you to buy this fund or that fund and could care less if there is no real track record. I hope you don8217t have an 8220advisor8221 like this. Please fire him if you do.-ed Ray Dalio deals with large institutional investors. Those are the biggest clients. They will ask the above questions. The retail community is going to get slammed if they rely only on this back-tested track record to make their investment decisions. While this post might look like I have a thing against Tony Robbins, I dont at all. The guy has a gift for making people feel better and he happens to make a ton of money doing it. Good for him. I have watched a lot of his videos and could be convinced to slit my feet and then go run a marathon if he told me too. But that is why we need to be so careful with this new book of his. Robbins is a force. And he is very convincing. So just do your research, bridge the gap with all this information and be your own designer to make sure you understand all of it before blindly buying into this all weather strategy. Editor8217s Note: Wasn8217t that fun I8217ve written before about dozens and dozens of reasonable portfolios. There is no such thing as Portfolio Nirvana. Couple any reasonable portfolio with an adequate savings rate and sufficient discipline to stick with it and you are likely to reach your goals. My big beef with very conservative portfolios such as The All Weather Portfolio are that the expected returns are so low. Commodities and precious metals have long-term expected returns close to the rate of inflation (minus expenses.) At current interest rates, bonds have expected real returns of -1.5 to 1.5. Having 70 of the portfolio in assets that aren8217t provided any significant growth after inflation means that you will have to compose nearly the entire portfolio of brute savings, a feat that is out of reach for all but the most frugal savers. However, if you8217ve already got all the money you need andor can8217t stand to lose money in more volatile investments like stocks and real estate, then this type of portfolio might be for you. Some of Kathryn8217s criticisms could be interpreted as advocating timing the market (i.e. interest rates must go up so you shouldn8217t invest so much in bonds.) Unlike Kathryn, and I suppose a bit like Robbins, I actually like the idea of a static asset allocation that doesn8217t change based on market predictions, interest rates, or valuations, even if I8217m not a huge fan of this particular static allocation, at least for an investor in the accumulation phase. What do you think Do you read or listen to Robbins What do you think Do you invest in the All Weather Portfolio Why or why not Comment below Subscribe to our blog RSS feed Sign-up for the regular blog posts via the RSSemail feed. Every post published will show up in your email box or favorite RSS reader. Keep in mind this is different from the monthly newsletter . so if you want both, sign-up for both. Brian February 18, 2016 at 9:53 am Great article, this is sage advice. The truth is, most people can8217t handle the volatility inherent in equities which is a product of natural human behavior. We are inherently risk averse. If you have 30 year investing horizon, it8217s hard to beat sticking your money in an indexed stock ETF and letting time work it8217s magic. Portfolios like the All Seasons and others are good for those who might need to withdraw sooner, and can8217t risk losing 40 in a year. I think the All Seasons portfolio misses out on some notable asset classes however. Check out my sample portfolio at buildingthebank Great review of Robbins8217 popular book. Ive always believed that allocating to assets that arent in their ideal environment just for the sake of All Weather diversification is waaay too much drag on performance. I wonder if Dr. Dahle or Kathryn have read the other popular book of the year that one of my friends helped put together called Dual Momentum Investing where they discuss how to be 100 in stocks during bull markets (either SampP500 ETF or All World ex US ETF depending on which is doing better) and 100 in bonds during recessions. 17 CAGR with 22 worst drawdown over last 40 years using only one parameter and 3 ETFs. Problem is its simple, non-predictive, passive, low-cost, and super boring, so most wont bother with the strategybut its what Ive been doing for years in my retirement accounts. That, blended with my commodityfutures trading strategy (0.0001 correlation), is my 8220All Sunny8221 portfolio skeptic December 31, 2014 at 7:18 am Donald, please let me borrow that crystal ball once you8217re super rich using your strategy and don8217t need it anymore. how can you possibly know when to get in and get out of bullbear markets Its not much of a crystal ball. No one knows, or can predict, when or how long bull or bear markets last. But what is possible is to recognize them while they are occurring and be positioned according. Systems like these are reactionary, not predictive. Its really not that complicated. I was just saying that the Dual Momentum Investing book does a nice job of explaining how to do it. But you dont have to take my word for it if you dont want maybe just read the reviews of it on amazon, or better yet, read the book and see if you still think the same way. Perhaps you can8217t see this, but to say you are 8220in a bull market8221 by its very nature predicts what is going to happen tomorrow. It8217s easy to say what has happened in the past, but to define the current investing environment requires not only a knowledge of the recent past, but also the near future. Very difficult to do. My crystal ball always seems to be very cloudy with regards to the near future. If yours is not, it might be fun to start publishing your near future predictions here and see how good they are. We could start with something simple, like whether the US stock market is going to be up or down a month from now. 8220Reactionary not predictive8221 means trend following, and the issue with trend following is that you are in for the beginning of the bear and out for the beginning of the bull, plus you may be incurring lots of investment expenses and transaction costs with each change. Not to mention the value of your time while following all these trends. It8217s hardly new and hardly the long searched for Holy Grail of investing. Jim, I see the confusion and am frustrated I can8217t explain it better. And saying 8220just read the book8221 doesn8217t offer much help either even though I just know you8217d like it since it8217s based on the same pillars of low cost, passive, non-predictive, simple, but it does acknowledge the irrefutable evidence that the biggest market anomaly out there in momentum. IOt has existed for millenia and will continue to so long as human nature is present. Antonacci8217s Dual Momentum strategy takes one minute per month, on the first of each month, averages 1-2 trades per year, and switches only between 3 ETFs. 17 CAGR for past 40 years, with less than half the downside of the SampP500. That8217s hard data, after transaction costs that anyone could have achieved if they had 20 minutes per year to run it. It8217s long stocks in bull markets, and long bonds during bear markets. I8217m happy to post the monthly performance of it moving forward and the 8220prediction8221 even though it8217s more of a trend ride than a prediction. For example, as of Jan 1st 2015, the portfolio would continue to be 100 in the SampP500. Because it8217s a bull market. We8217ll re-convene on Feb 1st. Here is the last 40 years of monthly data compared to the US World Stock index: optimalmomentumtrackrecord3.html Okay. Who was doing this for the last 40 years Nobody 8220Could have achieved.8221 Hmmm8230.smells backtested to me. I8217m not sure why this concept is hard for you to get, but backtested data suffers from the fact that the future may not resemble the past. You can backtest all kinds of stuff that works great, but the vast majority of it falls apart going forward. You cannot put 100 reliance in back-tested data. Doing one prediction a month is going to take too long to demonstrate your crystal ball (even using trends) is just as cloudy as the rest of ours. How about posting what 20 asset classes are going to do on Friday, next week, and next month (both direction and magnitude- or at least relative magnitude) That8217s 120 predictions. We8217ll see how many you got right. Not confident enough in your strategy to do that I8217m not surprised. I don8217t know anyone who is. I understand how these systems work. I just don8217t believe they8217re the best way to invest. If you do, nobody is stopping you. Here8217s a good article explaining the issues with trend-following momentum strategies: Casey February 10, 2016 at 3:00 pm I couldn8217t agree more with you on past performance doesn8217t guarantee future results.What I find interesting, is that everyone and there mom wants to judge and criticize the allocation that was based off the knowledge of one of the greatest investors ever in history of the world. However, if anyone has actually read the book Ray Dalio and Tony Robbins both clearly state this point, that it isn8217t always going to produce gains. It will lose some of the time. It was back tested over the past 75 years and compared to the performance of the S amp P 500 over the past 75 years NOT 30 years as claimed in this article. It is geared towards the long term8230. over 30 years or more, NOT 1, 2 or even 10 years. It is for retirement not a day trading account. Maybe it works or maybe it doesn8217t8230 only time will tell. Isn8217t that why they specifically tell you in the book that you will want to rebalance the portfolio every year Isn8217t that what rebalancing asset allocation is for So if you lose money hand over fist in one asset you can make up for it in another asset and also take advantage of dollar cost averaging on assets that go down in price Anyone disagree on that I agree that8217s a pretty big claim Donald. The book was published less than eight weeks ago. Let8217s evaluate the strategy going forward from there before we declare it is the Holy Grail investors have been searching for for the last few millenia. I assure you there are plenty of investors who are perfectly okay with simple and boring. A successful market timer should be very rich, very quickly. Casey February 10, 2016 at 3:07 pm Timing markets works but not over long haul. Trust me I know from experience. I had a 92 win rate day trading volatility over a period of 10 months last year. I was winning almost every time I made a trade timing the markets and eventually I lost and when I did lose, I lost big. I Didn8217t lose everything because I had an exit strategy and I know something about technical and fundamental analysis but the point is this8230 even the best traders on earth lose trades timing the markets. Simple and boring in my humble opinion is a much better way to build wealth without losing a whole lot of your nest egg. BTW, I am pretty sure that anyone that buys into the obvious logic and brilliance of the Dual Momentum Investing Strategy combined with commodityfutures trading that is benefiting so many of the Forbes 400 will not be deterred by my comments I dont wish for this to get off point. My main critique with All-Weather portfolios such as Dalios is that static allocations create massive performance drag. You just dont need bonds all of the time. It hurt the last few years. Emerging markets, gold, energy are not always needed either, and the last few years should help clarify that picture, for they were massive drags as well. Stocks (specifically just the SampP) has been the place to be. That will change at some point. The main argument is that if you truly want superior risk-adjusted returns, a dynamic allocation methodology could provide this, for it by design utilizes whatever assets that are working at the most appropriate times. It gives the best of both worlds while reducing the performance drag that comes from a permanent allocation to some assets. My blending the above Dual Momentum strategy with a futures strategy is a personal choice since I think adding my futures strategy is a nice diversifier because of it8217s non-correlation. Unfortunately, due to cognitive dissonance and anchoring bias, it may take the next bear market in bonds for investors to finally give up the notion that holding a substantial amount of bonds in their portfolio is the prudent thing to do. This case can be made for stocks, gold, whatever. My mention of the Dual Momentum book is simply a way to give an example of one such dynamic allocation system that can be employed by anyone and everyone. The author has decades of investment professional experience and is widely recognized as a foremost authority on momentum and dynamic models. The cool thing is no one needs to believe it. It wont affect how I manage assets, but it may turn a light bulb on in someone elses head, and if thats the case, then awesome Why do you need non-correlating asset classes when your plan is to just be in the best asset class all the time by trend following I8217m having a hard time reconciling those two strategies. Either you need non-correlated assets, or you can be in the best asset class all the time. Which is it Good question. It8217s actually both. The goal is to be in the most uncorrelated assets that currently exhibit momentum. It just increases return while also smoothing the ride. For example, I8217ve been long SampP500 with Dual Momentum for last several years, but short crude, long US Dollars, short gold (among other trending futures) in my futures program for the last few quarters. All of the above positions exhibit momentum, which by definition means price change (ie no point in being in anything that8217s not moving), and then when you combine uncorrelated assets, time frames, and strategies you end up with a pretty sweet equity curve Dr Khan December 31, 2014 at 6:01 pm But is not this dual momentum kind of like performance chasing For eg, for 2014 Biotechnology, Healthcare and REITS and airlines did amazing in 2014. Doesnt mean they will do great in 2015. Similarly before them energy, and commodities during the crash, and even gold one year did amazing. Wouldnt performance chasing be like buying high and selling now. While there is some persistence in returns (i.e. momentum) over the longer term there is a reversion to the mean phenomenon. Donald8217s advocated trend following scheme is that as an asset class starts to go down, you get out of it, getting back in when it starts to go up. If you8217ve invested into a trend-following portfolio recently, and then that asset class goes down in value, you will then have bought high and sold low. If the market 8220whipsaws8221 you can do that repeatedly, which is obviously going to hurt investment returns. It8217s not so much 8220performance chasing8221 as trying to figure out a methodology to use the anomaly of momentum to catapult you to greatly outsized gains. For example, think of this simple, robust, SampP-crushing equity system: 1. Throw darts to randomly pick 25 of IBD8217s top 100 momentum stocks at the beginning of the year (make sure they8217re uncorrelateddiversified though, very important). 2. Equally weight them. As one stocks hits a 60-day low, sell it, and re-allocate the proceeds equally to the remaining 24 stocks in the portfolio. 3. Repeat process ifwhen a stock hits a 60-day low. Cuts losers, presses winners. 4. At the end of the year, you8217ll be left with nothing but the best performing stocks, and in size. You8217ll look like a genius without predicting a thing, market timing, nor using any secret 8220indicator.8221 Pretty cool huh Moral of the story: prediction and market timing is impossible. However managing positions (ie cutting losers and riding winners) produces extremely outsized gains if done correctly the very existence of momentum in markets allows these strategies to work. Re-jigger the way you 8220think8221 about markets, and you may just be surprised with what comes of it8230again, you don8217t need to predict markets to significantly beat them. If that really works that well, shouldn8217t be hard for a mutual fund to do it and show incredible returns, no Where are they A few issues- first, what happens when all of the stocks hit their 60 day low in a market downturn8230.Also, your portfolio becomes less diversified as you go, exposing you to single company risk. 1). Unfortunately, it8217s just not worth the massive legal and compliance fees to start a fund that runs a strategy that takes 1 minday to run, and that anyone can just employ themselves plus hardly anyone would invest in it since the majority think like you and don8217t 8220believe it.8221 The guy who told me about this strategy (ridiculously successful top-ranked Wall St technical analyst and asset manager) always laughed and said he could never raise money with it bc his institutional clients thought it 8220too simple,8221 thus felt 8220can8217t possibly work.8221 Really interesting actually. You just can8217t start a fund for such strategies since managers can8217t qualify charging the fees for something so simple. The big money fees in asset management are achieved in blackbox, opaque, 8220magic sauce8221 strategies that require 1,000 PHDs from Harvard to run. But what8217s funny is that returns are more often perfectly inverse of complexity. It8217s too bad more people don8217t realize this. 2). When all stocks hit 60-day lows, portfolio goes to all cash until end of year. This means when it does have stocks (bull markets), it8217s in the highest returning stocks, and all cash during large recessions. I can email you a 30-yr track record of it you8217d like it8217s actually pretty ridiculous. But again, few do it because they want something more complex. 3). This is just a framework and an example how to start thinking differently. You can start with 100 stocks if you want less idiosyncratic risk, and when you get to 50, re-throw the darts to get a fresh 100. This will limit the company-specific risk. Or better yet, start with 500 (each equity from the SampP500), and run the system. You8217ll see exactly how and why it beats the index as it cuts the losers and presses winners. Or even better yet, include totally different asset classes, time frames, and add in the ability to short. My point is that the out-performance comes from a level of THINKING (ie all about management of positions, no predicting necessary, cut losers, ride winners, etc8230) that is very unconventional to classical thinking. At the end of the day, most people lose in markets, so if you want to win, by definition you need to do something different8230and if you study what the winners do, you8217ll see they all have commonalities. 4. That Dual Momentum book I mentioned earlier uses basically the same concept, but even simpler, with just 3 ETFs. All stocks (either SampP500 or All World Equity ETF) during bull markets, but when it breaks down, switches to all bonds. Keep checking back into Amazon every so often, and keep watching the 5 star reviews tick up like clock work8230some people are finally starting to grasp these simple but extremely powerful concepts. These strategies are simple, cheap, and effective, but it takes a willingness to buy into a way of thinking that is very contrary to what is taught in BSchool, investing books, or on CNBC. But remember, the individuals actually making money in markets don8217t write about it, teach it, or talk about it on CNBC8230and when they do, they get push back like I8217m getting which makes them less inclined to do so again But it8217s cool knowing at least some people will read these comments, put the time into reading, researching, and testing systems derived from these concepts and be pleasantly surprised at what they find 2.Oh, so there8217s more rules you didn8217t mention. Any others someone implementing this should know Good thing I didn8217t run out and start doing it yesterday as I thought that was all there was to it. You mean a back-tested 30 year track record Or do you have the records of someone who has actually been doing this for the last 30 years How did October 1987 treat them Sounds like they sold pretty low to me that month. 3. Oh, another rule. You sure this isn8217t complex enough for a hedge fund yet Most of the 8220market winners8221 I know (those with millions and plenty to retire on) follow a buy and hold strategy. 4. What do you mean it8217s different from what8217s taught in investing books It IS an investing book, no Its just a framework of how to think you just dont need All Weather or Risk Parity or diversification with losers just for the sake of diversification. It just creates massive performance lag. People can create whatever system or rules they want based on these simple concepts its better for them to read, research, test, and create themselves in order to build the confidence and discipline to actually believe it and stick to it, which is THE most important part. My point is that its not difficult, and people can do it themselves, but only if theyre willing to change their way of thinking. Im proofwhen I changed my way of thinking, I created a strategy that has compounded at 30yr for the past 7 years though bull, bear, and flat periods, without predicting a thing. I could retire now at 28 years old, but the mental game fascinates me. Plus I need something to do when my wife is pulling EM shifts or its raining out preventing me from fishing or golfing What if I were to tell you that, although we all know the average returns for stocks has been 7-8 over history, it would be 16-18 if you just removed the few generational crises over the past 100 years (ie Great Depression, 74, tech crash, 08 crisis) There are extremely simple strategies out there that get you into all cash (or bonds) during these rare events. Dual Momentum is the best book out there for people looking for something like this. Im just trying to help people cut through the BS books (like Tony Robbins) and get to ones that actually help. Forgive my skepticism- it has saved me hundreds of thousands thus far in my investing career. Might it cause me to miss out on some good opportunities from time to time Sure. But it has also saved me from many scams, 8220new and wonderful8221 investing techniques, and advisory fees. You run a fund that invests based on principles of momentum. I expect you to be fully sold on the concept. I see it as one more investing technique that may work just fine, but that I do not need to reach my goals. Many roads to Dublin and all that. 30 per year for 7 years would turn a 500K portfolio into a 3.1 Million portfolio. Bernie Madoff wasn8217t claiming that. Why are you still working again I think people would be more convinced if you posted your statements for the last 7 years. Responding to your comment below this: I totally understand your skepticism, and yes, I agree it has served you well. What8217s funny is you and I actually have way more commonalities than differences. I love 99 of this blog and your book I8217ve been passing your book around my wife8217s entire residency program. I too believe in keeping costs very low, being passive, not predicting anything, buy and hold, do it yourself. The slight and main difference is just that I only buy and hold things that are 8220working8221 and am out of, or short, things that are 8220not working.8221 The difference may be slight in thinking, but vast in performance. With Dual Momentum for example, it8217s holding a low-cost equity ETF (SampP500) for literally 80-90 of the time, owning it often for years at a time. Except during recessions. Slight difference, but it more than doubles the long-term CAGR from 7-8year to 16-18, AND reduces the worst drawdowns by half8230it8217s worth the 2 hours it takes to read the book I 8220work8221 because it8217s intellectually stimulating. I think these conversations are fun. I like watching people get that 8220aha8221 moment when they learn something new or different than what they previously thought. I can8217t post my fund statementsdata due to SEC regulations, but that shouldn8217t matter. I don8217t need any new investors, and it8217s not about me. It8217s about trying to share a way of thinking that may help others. And the best part is they can do it themselves, cheaply, simply, and effectively. Sounds like Will Roger8217s investment philosophy: Don8217t gamble take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don8217t go up, don8217t buy it. And last I checked, the SEC doesn8217t regulate an individual posting their own Roth IRA statements. Haha, I like it. Pretty similar actually, you8217re getting closer Just do more of what8217s working, and less of what isn8217t. Not a bad life motto either. I have just two investment strategies I use. The one I created for my privately offered hedge fund which the SEC prevents me from sharing. And the other which is the Dual Momentum strategy which anyone can replicate (and should). These two strategies blend well since their monthly performance correlation is 0.00. All of my Roth IRA, Solo 401k, and Solo Roth 401(k) assets are in Dual Momentum. Here are those returns vs global equity index8230for the past 6 years the system has just held the SampP5008230but notice how it performs during recessions when it switches to bonds: optimalmomentumtrackrecord3.html The reason people attempt to 8220diversify8221 is because they feel like it will help them when recessions come. But what if you could just side-step the majority of the length of each recession Do you still need those diversifying laggards in your portfolio during bull markets I8217d argue no. And Dual Momentum is an example of how to achieve this. Obviously if you could just side step the bear markets you would want to. Who wouldn8217t But it obviously isn8217t that easy. I8217m surprised you can8217t see this. There are millions of people in the world trying. Some are too early getting out. Some too late. Some too early getting back in. Some too late. You can automate and remove some of the emotion, but you8217re still driving while looking in the rear view mirror, like everyone else. This of course ignores transactiontax costs, which can be minimized, but eliminated. It8217s still beyond me why you would use an S038P 500 fund and not a TSM fund. The strategy is maybe 2 pages of the book. The other 175 pages is the good stuff, helping to re-frame the mind into understanding why exactly it will continue to always work. I know it. The author of Dual Momentum knows it, and AQR knows it too. And you don8217t need to buy options at all that8217s just for the extremely paranoid skeptics. The system was still nicely positive in 821787 even after the crash. I just must not be very good at explaining it, or you not good at receiving it. Would be cool to get a 3rd party whom you trust (maybe your pal Swedroe) to read the book or our conversations and see what they think. He8217s probably already even read it. I just think it would be incredible if you, with your following and voice, believed in this stuff and could help other Docs realize the huge benefits from such a beautifully simple system. But it8217s ok, I still like you and have a lot of respect for what you8217re doing. And who knows, maybe someday you8217ll look back and say 8220hey maybe that little whippersnapper of a kid was onto something after all8221 The system was hypothetically nicely positive in 1987. Nobody was actually doing it. See, the way to evaluate these things, and I8217m not sure why this is tough for you, is to take the date the book was published, and look at the data going forward. You apparently haven8217t had the experience yet of seeing something that worked great in the past, but did not in the future. Swedroe, like me, does believe in momentum as a factor last I checked. I8217m not sure he8217d consider me a pal though. The question for someone who believes in momentum, of course, is how big of a bet you want to make on it. Obviously, being a value (buying stuff that hasn8217t done well lately) investor works pretty well. Apparently momentum (buying stuff that has done well lately) also works well. Guess what buy and hold is It8217s a great way to combine those two strategies at ultra-low cost and effort. I agree, buy and hold works very well, and it8217s better than 95 of the other junk out there. I8217m just talking about that other 5 that really is incredible, crushes buy and hold, is much better than All Weather or Risk Parity, and is very simple and achievable. I guess you8217re also right, I have not had the experience yet of seeing what8217s always worked in the past for centuries (selling losers and riding winners) not work in the future8230..makes me wonder if I8217ll ever see it NOT work. For it to not work in the future, the opposite would then hold: profits would be derived from selling winners quickly and holding onto, or better yet adding to, losers Oh boy, now that sounds like the type of negatively asymmetric payoff structure I should build an investing strategy around. I bet my investors would LOVE that Ugh, I can8217t think of a quicker way to consistently lose money. What8217s funny is that8217s actually what the vast majority of investors make the mistake of doing based on their anchoring bias, disposition effect, confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, the list goes on8230 I bet my investors would love to go from making 30yr to losing money consistently by doing the complete opposite of what8217s worked for centuries I8217m glad you8217ve found a technique that not only works for your personal investments, but allows you to earn a living helping others. There are many roads to Dublin. Ahmen, exactly right, many roads to Dublin. Like I tell my wife and our Doc friends, they don8217t need me or any other person or special strategy to make them a lot of money8230they8217ll make plenty enough from working, and if they just protectinvest it via all the topics you cover in your book and blog, they8217ll do wonderfully. I tradeinvest differently strictly for the intellectual pursuit8230and to post on this blog once in a while to maybe stimulate a new way of thinking about markets or investing. Thanks for indulging in this conversation and putting up with me. 1.This is the whole point its extremely easy if people change their thinking (or just read the book). Or any other paper proving this stuff. AQR came out with a free paper a couple months ago showing how its worked on every rolling 10-yr period for the last 100 years. It8217s beyond me why people won8217t just spend literally two hours reading something that literally could make them so much more, while also preventing huge catastrophic losses Simply put, bear markets and bull markets are MASSIVE trends that often last many quarters or even years. Side-stepping bear markets only a couple months into them (ie reactive, not predictive, admittedly these systems do lag by a couple months) does absolute wonders for long-term returns. And then youre back into equities a couple months after a bull market resumes. Thats the point of the book. I agree these strategies would not work if bull markets and bear markets were completely random and lasted only a few days at a time. But they dont. Sure youll get whipsawed once in a while, a couple times every couple years, but it certainly outweighs losing 50 of your portfolio 2. In terms of SampP500 vs TSM, or any other equity exposure fund, I think its just based upon personal preference. The TSM and SampP500 are very similar: stockchartsfreechartsperf.phpVOO,VTSMX To each his own. I dont focus on this stuff. My focus is on not losing money during recessions. I personally like the SampP500 because I can rest assured that I will always have the best 500 companies in the most advanced country in the world for the rest of my life. Its actually actively managed too in the sense that it drops losers and presses winners (since its market cap weighted). Someday when the SampP no longer is performing better than the All World ex-US index, the Dual Momentum strategy switches into that for equity exposure based on relative momentum. The portfolio is literally either 100 in the SampP, or 100 in the All World Equity ex-US, or 100 in short-term bonds, all based on both absolute and relative momentum which is simply calculated on the 1st of each month. The liberating feeling of not needing to predict anything, or worry about anything, is quite nice. The only risk is if the stock index drops massively in a period shorter than a month before the system tells you to switch all into bonds (ala 87 crash). But if youre worried about that, you just buy some short-term, cheap, way out of the money put options to cover that risk. I don8217t need to read the book. You8217ve explained the philosophy. I8217m confident it backtests well. I understand the data on momentum well that AQR is famous for. The question is how well it will work going forward. You don8217t know that, neither does AQR or the authors of the book. I8217m curious as to why you think the S038P 500 represents the 500 best companies. Now I8217ve got to buy options too This strategy is getting more complicated all the time for being super simple. Zach Barnes January 4, 2015 at 4:36 pm Pump8230and dump. There is obviously momentum in the markets, as they are certainly not rational day to day. Really, since a large proportion of the money generated in the market is generated by trading, it makes sense. Things need to move, any direction will do, for folks to make money. I dont think it8217d be terrible to think of momentum in a longer term sense, as bullsbears seem to last a while overall. Kind of a boost to your overall strategy, not necessarily deviating from it. Just like the energy sector being down today and over the near future, but of course it will most likely go back up at least reverting to the mean. I havent looked specifically but there is probably some value and many of these companies pay good dividends and just are falling with sentiment. Stuff like that makes sense, but not as a likely overall strategy, just bargain buying i guess. Dr Khan January 4, 2015 at 4:44 pm If the energy sector goes down and you believe in momentum, then you sell it, not buy it. Its like people in 2013 swear by small cap, how ever small cap did pretty bad in 2014. WCI is there a way to attach a picture or graph to comments 14 david January 3, 2015 at 7:56 am one of the best guest posts to date, I enjoyed Ms. Cicoletti comment about Mr. Robbins, this guy makes people feel better and makes tons of money doing it and that8217s OK. She seems to really understand investment value more than most and I think Mr. Robbins should probably avoid the topic. First, I8217m a fan of Tony8217s his tapes got my 10-year old daughter over her fear of heights and I like the guy personally. Second, I8217m a fan of Dalio8217s a successful investor who is serious about both bow-hunting and meditation is someone I8217d like to know better. But here8217s my problem. I don8217t think Tony understood Ray8217s All-Weather strategy quite. I may be wrong, but I don8217t think Dalio8217s risk parity strategy is managed as easily as allocating more money to bonds than to stocks. Here8217s a quote from Dalio8217s pdf 8220Our Thoughts about Risk Parity and All Weather8221 in the September 16, 2015 issue of Bridgewater Daily Observations where Ray writes about creating a 8216risk-adjusted8217 portfolio: 8220For example, if you put 50 of your money in global stocks and 50 of your money in global bonds, over the last 20 years, the return of your portfolio would have been 98 correlated with stocks and had a return of 6.5. To have diversification, you would need the stocks and bonds to have comparable impacts on your portfolio. You could do that by taking more money out of stocks and putting it in bonds. To do that over that period, you would have had to change the asset mix from 50 50 to about 25 stocks and 75 bonds. If you did that, you would have achieved your diversification and thus reduced the risk by about 3. But you also would have reduced the return by about 50bps.8221 In other words, you can8217t just add more bonds and less stocks without reducing your portfolio rate of return unless, as Kathryn points out in this article, you8217re in a major bull market for bonds. If you did that over, say, the last 100 years, the lower return from bonds would lower the overall portfolio rate of return significantly. You8217d have done much better to put up with the ups and downs of the market and just put your money in a broad market index. What Dalio is trying to do with All Weather is to give a stock market rate of return with much lower risk. Here8217s what he proposes: 8220On the other hand, if you levered up bonds to have a risk that was comparable to the risk of equities, the overall risk of the portfolio would have been virtually the same as the 50 50 portfolio (i.e. 7) and the return would have been about 1.5 greater (8.0 versus 6.5).8221 To sum up, Dalio is saying that to get true risk parity without reducing your rate of return, the right answer is to buy more bonds with borrowed money. The leverage theoretically brings the rate of return in the bond bucket up to the rate of return in the stock bucket. The leverage increases the risk for bonds but decreases the overall risk of the entire portfolio and keeps the return high. My guess is that Dalio and Robbins both realized that levering up bonds isn8217t something the average investor can do so they settled for a very distant second-best idea 8211 to allocate heavier into the bond side of things. Unfortunately, that plan leaves them open to a lot of well-founded criticism. Kathyrn carves up the plan here and the Washington Post does it there and those of us looking for the nirvana of 8216all weather8217 must either learn how to lever bonds like Ray or, like Kathryn, face the probability that nirvana isn8217t quite here yet. The tricky thing is figuring out how to borrow money at a rate lower than the yield on bonds. Good luck with that. 16 Ester brant February 18, 2016 at 7:33 pm Hmm. My initial reaction was the same8230 So much (long) bonds and after a historic 30 year bull market in bonds. But Ray Dalio is no simpleton. There is more here than meets the eye. One needs to stop and consider what it means to be at the end of a massive bond bull market, why interest rates are stuck at zero (or lower), why so much money printing and so little growth I am reapeatedly reminded of Japan. We may find that where bond yields go all assets classes follow. 17 Liam December 30, 2016 at 1:33 pm Here8217s my challenge. 95 of the population do not understand even a portion of the terms and concepts being thrown around here. I8217m not a financial expert AT ALL, so I8217m honestly coming at this in terms of I want to learn. What I appreciate about the book is that it at least attempts to get people on the right track. Some might say his advice is BS, but would people be better off not investing at all The challenge is writing a book for the general population that makes things straightforward, easy to implement, and effective. So can someone please recommend 3-5 resources for setting up investments And please provide the reasons why they are sound resources (i.e. They will get the results people want). Some people say Bogle, some say Dalio, some say a whole bunch of other people. I want to study this area and other non-financially literate people do too, but unfortunately I8217ve seen just more jargon and random books thrown here and there. Tony Robbins can sell his book because he is selling simplicity. I doubt its perfect advice (by a long shot). But its simple. What are some other simple and easy to understand resources that do the job 8220properly8221
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