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Kiat Virtual Trading Tips untuk Trader Virtual Misi dari VT.org adalah memberikan informasi gratis untuk kesuksesan trader mulai hari ini tentang The Magic Word untuk membantu trader menjadi trader sukses baik dalam kehidupan maupun di bursa berjangka online, perdagangan opsi, Dan untuk mempelajari rahasia Magic Word. Ya, Benar-benar Kemungkinan untuk Mencapai Kesuksesan Saham, Pilihan, Pasar Forex, Reksa Dana atau Komoditas Perdagangan Pasar berjangka dari komputer rumah Anda, melakukan perdagangan secara real-time atau overnight, menghasilkan uang untuk mencari nafkah, melakukan perdagangan dari kenyamanan Anda. Rumah atau kantor Tentu saja ada pengecualian terhadap peraturan perdagangan mengenai ayunan-trading dengan tinggi swing-high dan lower swing-low. Pada waktu-waktu tertentu, Anda akan menemukan harga yang tidak tinggi atau rendah. Ini disebut Inside Bar. Pola perdagangan ini harus ditangani dengan sangat hati-hati dan mengharuskan menunggu bar berikut sebelum melanjutkan jalur Anda. Terkadang Anda akan menemukan harga bar yang membuat harga tertinggi dan rendah lebih rendah. Ini disebut Outside Trading Bar. Di sana, dua ayunan terbentuk dalam waktu singkat. Biasanya, ayunan telah terjadi terlebih dahulu saat pembentukan bar sebelum bar di luar. Tapi ini tidak akan terlihat jelas pada grafik harga karena bar sebelum bar luar tidak akan memiliki lower rendah atau lebih tinggi tinggi dari luar bar itu sendiri. Caranya di sini adalah untuk mencatat pola intra-hari untuk menentukan apakah bar luar membentuk bagian atas atau bawahnya terlebih dahulu. Misalnya, katakanlah harga bar sekarang membuat rangkaian ayunan rendah dan posisi terendah ayunan rendah. Kita kemudian melihat harga bar yang membuat kedua tinggi lebih rendah dan rendah. Apakah kita menarik garis kita ke tingkat bawah yang lebih rendah dulu, lalu naik ke tinggi baru yang lebih tinggi Atau apakah kita menarik garis kita dari harga bar yang rendah sebelum bar di luar ke bar bagian luar yang tinggi, dan kemudian kembali ke titik terendah Itu semua tergantung pada harga mana yang benar-benar pergi dari penutupan harga bar sebelumnya, bukankah tidak. Namun, dengan melihat harga intra-hari untuk kedua harga, Anda dapat dengan cepat mengetahui di mana ayunan aktual terjadi dan apakah tinggi luar atau Rendah terbentuk dulu Kemudian Anda bisa melanjutkan jalur Anda dari sana. Salah satu cara cepat adalah dengan hanya mencatat harga mana yang bergerak setelah harga di luar bar. Jika bar berikutnya membuat tinggi yang lebih tinggi, kemungkinan bar luarnya terbentuk paling rendah dengan yang tertinggi terakhir. Jika bar berikutnya membuat rendah rendah sebagai gantinya, Anda kemudian bisa mengasumsikan palang luar terbentuk tinggi terlebih dahulu, lalu rendah. Order Trading Consultation, Lakukan Pencarian, atau Permintaan Situs Web oleh Going-here Sekarang, setelah Anda membuat diagram ayunan Anda, dan dapat melihat bagian bawah dan ayunan swing yang tidak Anda ketahui sebelumnya, Anda siap untuk menerapkan beberapa Metode harga yang disebutkan sebelumnya untuk puncak ayunan dan pantat ini. Rasio dapat diterapkan dengan menggunakan rentang besar maupun kecil yang dibuat oleh atasan dan dasar ayunan ini. Anda berada di jalan untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak informasi dari grafik harga Anda daripada yang Anda miliki sebelumnya. Menemukan di mana uang pintar itu bisa serupa dengan permainan shell, jadi bagaimana Anda bisa menemukan di mana uang pintar akan mogok berikutnya Jawabannya sederhana: Anda menemukan tren dan saham bergaris teratas Tren pasar cenderung memiliki volume besar, sebuah Arah yang jelas, dan banyak likuiditas - AKA dimana uang pintar itu. Apakah itu bagus untuk menemukan daftar arus tren saat ini yang kuat Sekarang Anda dapat Trading Tip-of-the-Day Apa Pasangan Forex Berprestasi Terbaik adalah pasar terbesar di dunia dan diperdagangkan 24 jam sehari. Pasangan mata uang mana yang sedang tren paling kuat dan di mana pasar akan Pelajari pasar keuangan dan gunakan mesin pencari pedagang webtrading untuk mengetahui lebih banyak tentang perdagangan berjangka dan pasar FX. Penumpukan Kemungkinan dalam Muka Anda Menjadi menguntungkan dalam bisnis berisiko tinggi (potensi keuntungan tinggi) dari perdagangan komoditas online virtual yang membutuhkan kerja keras. Begitu banyak situs pedagang mengiklankan layanan perdagangan mereka sebagai cara mudah menghasilkan banyak uang, pemasaran mana yang telah terbukti menyebabkan jatuhnya banyak pedagang baru dan karir perdagangan. Ada beberapa (sebenarnya sangat sedikit) sistem perdagangan keuangan yang dijual di pasar yang menginstruksikan Anda tepat kapan harus masuk dan keluar dari posisi pasar, dengan persentase keuntungan investasi tahunan yang bagus. Mereka membutuhkan basis modal awal yang besar dan juga sering mengalami penarikan ekuitas akun besar dari waktu ke waktu. Sebagian besar pedagang pasar berjangka baru tidak sesuai dengan persyaratan yang diperlukan untuk memperdagangkan komoditas, saham atau pasar berjangka dengan cara ini. Dengan demikian, mereka harus belajar membuat keputusan trading sendiri dengan harapan bisa meningkatkan posisi pasar kecil mereka. Pedagang ini disebut sebagai pedagang bebas atau independen. Banyak pedagang yang ingin melakukan perdagangan dengan cara ini meskipun mereka memiliki dana modal untuk melakukan perdagangan dengan menggunakan sistem perdagangan komoditas. Karena perdagangan berjangka independen mensyaratkan pedagang pasar keuangan untuk membuat semua keputusan masuk dan keluar, pekerjaan harus dilakukan untuk memetik hasil dari jenis pendekatan perdagangan ini. Rencana trading yang bagus adalah awal yang baik bagi trader bebas manapun. Trading plan sangat penting bagi trader pasar Forex, dimana potensi keuntungan buy loss sangat tinggi, seperti leverage dan margin trading margin trader FX Forex perlu mengikuti seperangkat aturan trading pribadi sehingga setiap perdagangan bukan hanya beberapa tindakan kebetulan. Perdagangan berdasarkan keberuntungan tidak lebih baik dari perjudian kasino, yang tentu saja perdagangan berjangka tidak dimaksudkan. Sukses pada perdagangan pasar saham yang menguntungkan atau futures forex yang menguntungkan dan perdagangan komoditas berjangka bukanlah sekadar dadu dadu yang sebagian besar didasarkan pada keberuntungan, di mana Anda memiliki kesempatan 5050 atau bahkan lebih sedikit untuk sukses dalam permainan perjudian kasino. Ini lebih seperti pedagang toko pakaian yang harus membuat keputusan mode setiap kuartal, dan jika wawasannya ke pasar bagus, keuntungan akan didapat dari penjualan inventarisnya. Namun, keputusan bisnisnya yang buruk dan dia ditinggalkan dengan rak berisi pakaian yang tidak diinginkan dan kerugian finansial. Kesuksesannya tergantung pada analisis lingkungan pasar dan bertindak sesuai. Perdagangan adalah sama. Sebagai pedagang discretionary, tugasnya adalah menumpuk peluang yang menguntungkan Anda untuk pertimbangan perdagangan tertentu. Kekuatan untuk melakukan ini ada di tangan setiap pedagang. Lakukan pekerjaan dengan baik, dan Anda akan diberi ganjaran. Cobalah untuk mengambil jalan pintas karena keterbatasan waktu atau kemalasan, dan hasilnya mungkin sangat mengecewakan. Jadi, bagaimana mungkin seorang pedagang discretionary menumpuk peluang untuk mendukungnya Itulah yang sekarang akan kita bahas. Informasi Trader Consulting, atau Membuat Permintaan Website oleh Going-here Lihat Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasar Banyak pedagang berjangka baru hanya ingin berdagang dengan cepat dan sering. Keinginan untuk membuat uang cepat banyak wabah banyak yang memasuki arena ini untuk pertama kalinya. Selain itu, mereka menemukan sedikit waktu untuk mengevaluasi pendekatan mereka terhadap perdagangan sebelum melompat dari satu metode ke metode lainnya. Yang menyedihkan adalah mereka mungkin telah menemukan metode trading yang telah membantu banyak trader sebelumnya, tapi mereka melewati kecepatan cahaya dan tidak mendapatkan inti dari semua itu sebelum beralih ke sesuatu yang tidak berharga dan mahal. Saya telah melihat ini terjadi terlalu sering. Pedagang discretionary perlu memahami bahwa waktu dan studi sangat penting jika pernah mencapai pendekatan trading yang baik berdasarkan prinsip perdagangan yang baik. Begitu banyak pendekatan akal sehat diabaikan demi kecepatan dan dolar. Salah satu pendekatan yang baik adalah dengan melihat gambaran pasar yang besar. Penulis ini telah menulis beberapa artikel yang berkaitan dengan topik ini, dan untuk alasan yang bagus. Bukan hanya hal yang cerdas untuk melakukannya juga sesuatu yang paling terlupakan atau terlalu malas untuk dilakukan. Pola dan tren pasar melampaui grafik harga harian sederhana. Mereka ada pada grafik harga mingguan, bulanan dan tahunan juga. Tren kenaikan pada grafik harian mungkin ada hanya sebagai rally satu bar tapi grafik mingguan menunjukkan arah ke bawah yang kuat Dan pergerakan mingguan ini mungkin hanya ada sebagai tren mundur banteng pada grafik bulanan. Jika Anda hanya fokus pada bagan harga harian untuk mendasarkan keputusan trading Anda, Anda bisa memasuki tren pasar yang kuat terhadap posisi Anda. Oleh karena itu, hal bijak yang harus dilakukan terlepas dari metode yang Anda pilih untuk digunakan dalam trading adalah memulai dengan kerangka waktu yang lebih besar (seperti menggunakan grafik harga bulanan jangka panjang) dan lanjutkan dengan cara turun ke mingguan, harian atau intra- Kerangka waktu hari (untuk penggunaan daytrading). Tanyakan Tentang Nama Domain Contoh yang baik dari ini adalah penggunaan tanggal pembalikan waktu harian. Jika seorang pedagang hanya melihat untuk memasuki perdagangan berdasarkan tanggal pembalikan harian, mungkin akan berakhir sebagai quick blip pada grafik harga harian yang mendukung arah tren pasar jangka panjang yang lebih kuat. Perdagangan pembalikan kecil up-move, down-moves, atau blips tentu bukan cara untuk pergi, kecuali jika Anda adalah seorang calo, trader pasar valas, atau terlibat dalam perdagangan hari euro. Untuk menumpuk peluang trading yang menguntungkan sesuai keinginan Anda, Anda akan ingin membedakan arah jangka panjang pertama (yaitu grafik bulanan), kemudian perhatikan arah jangka menengah (yaitu bagan mingguan), dan jika keduanya sepakat dalam arah, lihat Ke grafik harga harian ke waktu entri dalam arah yang sama dengan tren jangka panjang dan menengah Anda. Perlu diingat tren jangka panjang sering akan memiliki kekuatan yang lebih besar vs tren jangka menengah, seperti halnya medium amp tren jangka panjang akan membawa bobot lebih dari tren harga jangka pendek atau harian. Sebagai pedagang yang ingin menumpuk peluang yang menguntungkan Anda, Anda ingin mendapatkan bobot berat di sisi Anda sebelum masuk ke ring. Trader Search Inquiry, Order Trading Consultation atau Website Inquiry oleh Going-here Cara cepat bagi mereka yang memiliki waktu terbatas di tangan mereka untuk mengetahui kecenderungan pasarnya adalah dengan menggunakan trendline. Gambarkan di bawah dasar swing utama atau di puncak ayunan utama pada grafik harga bulanan, mingguan dan harian untuk melihat arah tren yang dominan. Bagi mereka yang dengan bijak membutuhkan lebih banyak waktu untuk melakukan ini, yang terbaik adalah melihat secara dekat grafik kerangka waktu yang berbeda dan perhatikan apakah itu menunjukkan pantulan ayunan yang lebih tinggi (untuk tren naik), atau puncak ayunan bawah dan dasar untuk tren turun. Belajar menggambar grafik ayunan (satu buku tentang subjek ini disebut Pola, Harga dan Waktu oleh J. A. Hyerczyk), yang segera memberi Anda pandangan mata burung tentang arah tren. Jika tren bar chart bulanan Anda naik, ditambah tren mingguan Anda naik, maka ketika Anda menemukan formasi ayunan bawah harian (terutama pada tingkat pembalikan dan tingkat dukungan yang diharapkan) lebih tinggi dari arus ayunan harian sebelumnya, Anda memiliki Sinyal beli sangat kuat untuk pergi lama dan mencari pasar bullish up-trend untuk segera memulai. Sumber Daya Perdagangan yang DisarankanU niversity F orex F Kegunaan Perdagangan Forex amp Futures Universitas Pedagang Pendidikan Artikel dari Bulan Selamat Datang di Pengetahuan kami adalah Panduan Sumber Daya Daya, memberikan informasi perdagangan futures gratis untuk membawa Anda ke jalan menuju kesuksesan perdagangan hari ini untuk memasarkan pasar FX Forex Futures dengan Informasi yang ditawarkan oleh Universitas untuk pendidikan perdagangan Forex menjadi metode perdagangan berjangka fx, sistem perdagangan dan metodologi trader yang mengarah pada perdagangan yang sukses. Artikel Perdagangan Keuangan amp Tidbits - ditulis oleh pakar pasar Joe Ross. 1. Mengukur Opini Pasar dan Sentimen Hi Joe Bagaimana dengan laporan Sentimen Pasar Terkadang laporan ini setuju dan terkadang tidak setuju. Apa pendapat Anda tentang laporan sentimen Meskipun laporan ini terdengar ilmiah, tidak ada tentang pasar perdagangan yang dapat diukur dengan presisi ilmiah. Futures komoditi amp alat ukur pasar forex sama sekali tidak terlalu akurat. Tidak ada tujuan praktis untuk mengukur pasar secara tepat dan sebagian besar pengukuran pasar paling bagus hanya perkiraan kasar. Ketika kita mengukur pasar berjangka, pada dasarnya kita juga mengukur perilaku manusia, dan perilaku manusia tidak mudah diukur. Ketika menyangkut peramalan kondisi pasar keuangan atau sentimen pasar, tidak masuk akal untuk mengupayakan akurasi yang ekstrem. Harga komoditas dan harga pasar valas didasarkan pada opini manusia. Ketika mengukur perilaku manusia di pasar, kesalahan statistik cukup besar, umumnya berjalan dengan hasil plus atau minus 5. Perkiraan pendapat trader atau investor hanyalah tebakan karena tidak semua orang memiliki pendapat yang sama, dan karena sulit untuk dilakukan Akurat mengukur pendapat. Variasi dalam 2 faktor ini ditunjukkan dalam kesalahan standar statistik 8.2201 Laporan sentimen pasar komoditas terbaik yang dapat ditawarkan adalah pernyataan probabilitas berdasarkan beberapa asumsi penting. Mari kita hadapi itu laporan sentimen mengasumsikan bahwa alam semesta yang diukur sebenarnya nyata. Asumsi lain adalah bahwa pengukuran pendapat dapat diandalkan. Saya telah melihat fenomena ini beraksi. Ketika saya memiliki sebuah peternakan dan bercampur dengan petani lain di berbagai pertemuan, jelas bahwa para petani tidak pernah memberi tahu maksud sebenarnya agen penanaman tersebut. Namun, departemen pertanian mengeluarkan sebuah laporan mengenai 8220Tanaman Perintis.8221 Petani yang berniat menanam kedelai akan memberi tahu agen bahwa mereka akan menanam jagung (dan mungkin juga memperdagangkan sistem perdagangan jagung mereka. Petani yang berniat menanam jagung akan memberi tahu agen mereka Akan menanam gandum Asumsi bahwa alam semesta itu nyata sering dipenuhi karena agen tersebut memang membuat petani jajak pendapat. Asumsi kedua bahwa pendapat tersebut dapat dipercaya hampir tidak nyata karena karena berbagai alasan beberapa petani mungkin telah berbohong kepada agen pertanian. Untuk mengukur opini pasar Dan hanya karena pendapat atau niat dinyatakan, maksudnya orang yang memberikannya akan bertindak berdasarkan apa yang mereka katakan Isu-isu ini berpengaruh langsung pada forex, futures, pasar saham dan perdagangan komoditas Sebagai pedagang forex, Kecuali jika kita melakukan trading (dengan 100 analisis grafik teknis atau forex), kita juga mencoba untuk menilai pendapat saat ini, dan mengantisipasi apa harga forex akan berbasiskan itu naik, turun atau miring Cara, berdasarkan pendapat arah pasar itu. Tindakan harga pasar Forex adalah cerminan dari apa yang manusia lakukan dan apa yang mereka lihat dan pikirkan yang sedang dilakukan orang lain, dan banyak pedagang mendasarkan keputusan mereka pada potensi reaksi pedagang lain. Jadi di jantung perdagangan adalah gagasan bahwa opini pasar diukur secara akurat oleh komoditas atau harga saham saat ini. Yang dipercaya oleh pakar pasar forex semuanya diketahui tentang sebuah pasar, yang bisa mempengaruhi harga valuta global, sudah banyak terbangun di forex atau futures price, dan apapun yang tidak diketahui tidak tercermin dalam aksi harga futures. Hal ini juga akurat untuk mengatakan bahwa pada melihat harga forex saat ini atau kondisi pasar terkini, trader forex bereaksi dengan cara yang dapat diprediksi. Untuk sebagian besar, ketika harga forex turun, trader forex cenderung menjadi takut dan menjual posisi mereka untuk melindungi sisa modal mereka, dan membeli lagi ketika mereka melihat kenaikan harga sehingga bisa memuaskan keserakahan mereka. Tentu saja, sebaliknya adalah benar trader Forex yang cenderung menjadi short seller. Tapi takut kenaikan harga oleh penjual pendek dan takut turunnya harga oleh mereka yang lebih memilih untuk menjadi panjang bukanlah bahan ketakutan utama di pasaran. Ketakutan yang lebih besar tampaknya adalah kehilangan gerakan. Rasa takut itu langsung terkait dengan keserakahan. Prinsip utama semua teori pasar adalah fx Pedagang valas dan investor bereaksi terhadap kondisi pasar tertentu secara konsisten dan dapat diprediksi. Pedagang lama terkenal W. D. Gann memvisualisasikan reaksi ini dalam bentuk sudut, bentuk dan pola geometris. Elliott melihat mereka sebagai ombak (sekarang dikenal sebagai Elliott-Waves), dan Charles Dow melihat mereka sebagai keterkaitan antara sektor industri, transportasi, dan utilitas pasar. Namun, ada alasan bagus untuk meragukan jika harga pasar benar-benar mencerminkan pendapat orang-orang yang berpartisipasi. Ada juga keraguan apakah pelaku pasar bereaksi terhadap situasi pasar secara konsisten. Sepertinya perilaku manusia terlalu sulit diukur dan orang (termasuk pedagang) tidak secara konsisten bertindak berdasarkan pendapat, sikap, dan kepercayaan mereka. Ini terbukti sangat sulit untuk mengukur perilaku manusia, dan orang tidak merespons dengan teratur terhadap situasi, bahkan situasi yang identik sekalipun. Ketika kita berasumsi bahwa pasar berjangka trader akan bereaksi secara konsisten terhadap kondisi pasar valuta asing tertentu dan dengan demikian membentuk pola harga grafik forex yang digariskan dalam teks analisis teknis trader klasik, kita menempatkan kuda perdagangan sebelum gerobak. Kita kemudian mengasumsikan bahwa manusia akan selalu bertindak dengan cara yang sama terhadap situasi dan kondisi tertentu. Namun sebenarnya trader forex tidak bertindak secara konsisten. Melainkan mereka bereaksi secara konsisten. Pola grafik forex merupakan cerminan dari semua hal yang diketahui di pasar forex. Apa yang kita lihat saat kita trading dari pola grafik adalah cara trader forex dan investor bereaksi terhadap kondisi pasar. Pilihan dan pilihan biner pilihan biner yang populer dapat ditemukan di sini. Perkiraan kami tentang apa yang diinginkan oleh trader dan investor berjangka hanyalah tebakan terbaik, dan yang berpotensi tidak akurat. Sentimen pasar mencoba memperkirakan bagaimana trader FX akan bertindak. Itu adalah di mana sampai batas tertentu ia kehilangan nilainya. Jauh lebih akurat untuk memperkirakan bagaimana orang akan bereaksi terhadap apa yang terjadi di Pasar Forex. Jadi ketika Anda mencoba mengantisipasi apa yang akan dilakukan trader pasar forex, ingatlah bahwa reaksi pedagang tidak selalu terlihat dengan ketepatan bentuk geometris, jumlah gelombang elliott, hubungan sektor pasar, atau indeks sentimen pasar. Tidak ada yang namanya kepastian perdagangan. Ketika saya bertemu dengan orang yang bisa memberi tahu saya dengan akurasi dan konsistensi yang lengkap dimana tick atau pip berikutnya akan ada, saya pasti akan menemukan Holy Grail dari Forex Trading dan perdagangan forex 2. Masuk dengan Forex Amp Futures Market Early Pada hari perdagangan forex, sebagai bagian dari persiapan trader harian Anda (Anda memiliki persiapan sehari-hari, bukankah Anda) sangat membantu untuk berlatih sedikit untuk mendapatkan quotfeelquot untuk apa yang mungkin Anda lakukan dan bagaimana Anda bisa bertransaksi forex hari ini. Salah satu cara untuk melakukannya adalah dengan melakukan beberapa perdagangan kecil, hanya dengan persentase kecil dari ukuran trading normal Anda dan ekuitas akun broker forex Anda. Menempatkan pada posisi perdagangan kecil membantu Anda fokus. Begitu Anda memasuki pasar, lihat bagaimana perdagangan komoditas atau forex bekerja. Jika Anda menggunakan indikator teknikal, lihat apakah sesuai dengan prediksi tindakan berjangka, saham, atau harga valas Anda. Jika Anda mengantisipasi penyiapan perdagangan forex atau komoditas yang bagus dari indikator analisis teknis, apakah itu benar-benar terjadi? Apakah cukup baik sehingga Anda akan mempercayainya lagi. Pedagang valas yang berusaha memasuki zona ini, 8221 mencoba merasakan nuansa aksi harga. . Mereka ingin selangkah dengan pasang surut pergerakan harga FX. Berlangganan Newsletter Gratis Cara Menghasilkan Uang dari Pasar Keuangan Ezine amp Mengenai Semua Masalah Uang Termasuk Pinjaman Sim Real Estat Klik Disini untuk Mendapatkan Klik Untuk Membuat Moneyquot Klik di Atas untuk Bergabung dengan Newsletter Ezine atau Klik di Bawah untuk Berlangganan ke RSS Feed Beberapa Hari Anda mungkin tidak sebagus Anda pada hari-hari lain. Bila Anda tidak selaras dengan pasar fx, itu seharusnya menjadi sinyal bagi Anda bahwa hari ini tidak akan menjadi hari Anda. Jika tidak, jangan ragu-ragu. Setiap pedagang akan mengalami kemerosotan perdagangan, periode ketika perdagangan sepertinya tidak berjalan baik. Selama pedagang merosot, tidak masuk akal untuk terus mencoba. Anda tidak cocok berdagang, jadi jangan. Anda tidak akan trading sebaik mungkin. Klik sekarang untuk Trading Tip of the Day. Kontrak berjangka komoditas profesional dan pedagang valas menyarankan berdiri di samping saat Anda atau perdagangan Anda tidak memiliki hari perdagangan yang baik. Akhirnya, ada baiknya Anda beristirahat sejenak dari perdagangan, untuk mencoba lagi nanti. Istirahat mungkin berjam-jam atau berhari-hari. Ketika I8217m dalam keadaan merosot, saya berangkat seminggu penuh. Saya tidak akan memulai trading lagi sampai saya melihat perdagangan dan pasar berjalan sesuai keinginan saya. 3. Don8217t Deny Reality Jika Anda ingin menjadi trader forex atau futures yang sukses, Anda harus memastikan bahwa Anda tidak menyangkal kenyataan dalam fase trading Anda. Anda tidak dapat menyangkal kerugian, arah harga, kesalahan yang Anda buat, kurang terstruktur, atau keseluruhan hal yang tidak ingin Anda pikirkan. Banyak pedagang berpikir cara terbaik untuk mengatasi ide, kejadian, atau kelemahan karakter yang tidak menyenangkan adalah dengan menutup mata dan berpura-pura tidak ada. Menghadapi hal itu, FX dan perdagangan komoditas bisa menjadi sulit, terkadang sangat sulit dan penting bahwa Anda berfokus pada kenyataan. Penolakan mengambil fokus Anda dari hal yang Anda perlukan untuk berkonsentrasi pada tindakan harga tanpa memperhitungkan kerangka waktu. Pikiran Anda harus jelas sehingga Anda bisa melihat pasar dan melihat apa yang sebenarnya ada di sana. Cara saya belajar menangani penolakan adalah menuliskan dan menghadapi semua kemungkinan gagasan yang sulit saya terima. Beberapa pemikiran yang bisa saya perbaiki dan yang lainnya harus saya terima. Tapi menghadapi kebenaran apa dan siapa Anda adalah satu-satunya cara untuk mengatasi penyangkalan. Anda harus menyadari bahwa untuk sebagian besar, satu-satunya hal yang dapat Anda ubah ada pada diri Anda sendiri. Hal lain yang harus Anda terima. Anda harus menerima kenyataan selip, misalnya. Anda harus menyadari bahwa indikator sering memberi sinyal palsu dan bahwa tidak ada rata-rata pergerakan ajaib dan juga tidak ada osilator magis. Anda harus menyadari bahwa beberapa perdagangan yang menang hanya perdagangan yang menguntungkan dan tidak ada hubungannya dengan keahlian Anda sebagai pedagang. Dengan cara yang sama, Anda juga akan mengalami nasib buruk karena harga membuat tindakan mendadak dan tak terduga terhadap Anda. Alih-alih membuang waktu Anda dalam penyangkalan, berkonsentrasilah energi mental Anda untuk memperbaiki diri dan meningkatkan keterampilan trading Anda. Bekerja untuk meningkatkan kemampuan Anda untuk mengamati. Sadarilah bahwa Anda harus bertahan di pasar untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengalaman pasar. Sebenarnya hanya ada satu masalah sebenarnya dengan masalah trading Anda. Masalahnya adalah Anda Namun, masalahnya bermanifestasi dalam dua cara: 1. Kondisi pasar telah berubah dan Anda haven8217t. 2. Anda tidak lagi melakukan apa yang Anda lakukan saat menang. Kamu telah melayang Anda tidak konsisten. Aspek pertama dari masalah ini adalah karena pengamatan yang buruk. Pasar telah berubah dan Anda tidak berubah dengannya. Observasi yang buruk berasal dari berbagai masalah yang lebih kecil tapi sangat penting. Anda sudah menikahi pasar, atau forex trading. Anda mungkin membiarkan ego Anda untuk mendapatkan yang terbaik dari Anda dan Anda tidak lagi rendah hati. Aku hanya menamai beberapa orang di sini. Saya menantang Anda untuk memikirkan banyak hal yang dapat mengalihkan perhatian Anda dari melihat ketika kondisi pasar telah berubah. Buat daftar hal-hal itu dan hadapi mereka. Aspek kedua dari masalah ini berasal dari ketidakkonsistenan trader. Di sini lagi, Anda harus membuat daftar hal-hal yang menyebabkan Anda tidak konsisten. Mungkin saya adalah pedagang yang baik pada satu waktu, tapi kondisi pasar telah berubah dan saya mungkin tidak dapat mempertahankan reputasiku. Ini adalah masalah yang dihadapi semua trader: menjaga reputasi mereka. Ketika seseorang membuat keuntungan besar trading, tergoda untuk memberitahu tetangga dan teman seberapa baik Anda melakukannya. Its great ketika youre membuat keuntungan besar, tapi menjaga penampilan sering jatuhnya bahkan pedagang paling cerdik. Sekali lagi, menyangkal kebutuhan Anda akan ketenaran dan kemuliaan, atau berpura-pura bahwa Anda dapat mempertahankan reputasi yang tidak realistis, akan menghabiskan energi psikologis Anda dan mengganggu kemampuan Anda untuk berkonsentrasi. Keuntungan besar cenderung pergi ke orang yang rendah hati, jadi cobalah untuk tidak membangun reputasi Anda. Akui bahwa Anda akan mengalami kesulitan dalam mempertahankan penampilan dan berhenti melakukannya. Salah satu fakta bahwa trader bergulat dengan terus menerus adalah anggapan, quotTrading bukanlah sebuah pekerjaan yang sah. Banyak trader berjuang dengan legitimasi trading. Beberapa pedagang menemukan bahwa mereka hanya bisa mengingatkan diri mereka sendiri, quotTrading menyediakan likuiditas dan membantu mengendalikan harga.quot Pedagang lain, bagaimanapun, menganggap ini tidak cukup baik dan perlu menemukan lebih banyak makna dalam aktivitas perdagangan sehari-hari mereka. Misalnya, mereka mungkin berfokus pada bagaimana perdagangan membantu mereka menyediakan bagi keluarga mereka, atau mungkin berencana untuk menyumbangkan sebagian keuntungan mereka ke badan amal yang mereka anggap berharga secara pribadi. Intinya adalah, jangan menolak kemungkinan kebenaran terhadap gagasan semacam itu. Anda akan lebih baik mengakui dan bekerja melalui mereka, dan kemudian terus bergerak. Menyangkal bahwa mereka ada, di sisi lain, akan menghabiskan waktu dan energi. Keyakinan yang tidak dapat diterima cenderung terletak di belakang pikiran Anda. Mereka tetap di sana, mengintai, dan ketika Anda rentan, mereka dapat dengan kuat mempengaruhi pandangan Anda. Jadi, akui gagasan yang tidak dapat diterima, dan begitu Anda mengakui kemungkinan validitas gagasan semacam itu, Anda akan menetralisir pengaruh potensial mereka. Ini akan membebaskan sumber daya psikologis terbatas, yang memungkinkan Anda untuk memfokuskan semua energi Anda pada perdagangan secara menguntungkan dan konsisten dengan baik. 4. Kekalahan perdagangan Hei Joe Kerugian adalah masalah besar bagi saya. Saya tahu seharusnya saya mencintai mereka.8221 Bagaimana Anda menghadapi kejadian yang mengecilkan hati ini Setelah serangkaian perdagangan yang sangat sukses, seorang pedagang seharusnya tidak berkecil hati dengan kerugian berturut-turut yang normal dan penarikan saham di akun brokerage, namun belajar mengharapkannya. Perhatikan bahwa saya tidak tahu, mereka pasti mencintai mereka. Bagaimanapun, Anda benar-benar mengatakan bahwa Anda hanya mengalami penurunan yang cukup besar dan penarikan saham di pasar forex. Anda merasa bersalah dan marah. Anda berharap itu tidak terjadi. Anda ingin pergi begitu saja. Anda tahu, 8220 Ini adalah bagian dari harga yang Anda bayarkan untuk menjadi pedagang yang sukses dan sukses.8221 Apakah ini pemikiran yang benar Apakah perdagangan ini adalah tentang Apa Anda benar-benar harus masuk ke sebuah perdagangan yang mengharapkan untuk kehilangan Donlot? Anda yakin itu Meskipun Anda melihat Pernyataan seperti itu dinyatakan sebagai kebenaran, percaya bahwa mereka tidak akan membantu Anda menjadi pedagang yang sukses. Jika Anda berpikir untuk diri sendiri, saya baru saja kehilangan banyak uang dan memikirkan bahwa Anda akan segera berada dalam masalah. Jika Anda berpikir, saya tidak bisa menuliskannya, 8221 kemudian melatih diri Anda untuk menganggapnya sebagai kemunduran kecil dan terus berlanjut. Saya tahu itu sulit, tapi itulah yang harus Anda lakukan. Sebagai trader pasar forex, Anda harus memikirkan jangka panjangnya. Anda harus percaya bahwa jika Anda bekerja cukup cerdas, dan membuat perdagangan fx yang baik di bawah kondisi pasar yang tepat, Anda akan keluar ke depan. Namun, tidak mungkin pemikiran seperti itu mudah terjadi. Dibutuhkan sejumlah besar disiplin dan pengendalian diri untuk menangani kerugian perdagangan secara positif. Mengapa karena kerugian menyakitkan? Mereka terluka tak peduli berapa lama kau sudah bertransaksi. Jika Anda mengalami kesulitan untuk kehilangan, Anda tidak sendiri. Semua pedagang mengalami kerugian. Sebagai pedagang, kerugian yang Anda ambil mungkin merupakan fakta kehidupan, tapi itu tidak membuat mereka mudah ditangani, dan Anda tentu tidak perlu belajar untuk mencintai mereka. Sebagai pedagang Anda harus mengendalikan jumlah kerugian dengan menjaganya tetap kecil, dan naik melalui undian sampai urutan lain dari perdagangan menang dimulai. Meskipun demikian, Anda mungkin merasa bersalah karena kehilangan. Mengapa kita merasa bersalah atas kerugian ini Bagian dari perasaan bersalah itu berasal dari dorongan kuat manusia untuk melindungi diri sendiri. Jadi ketika Anda kehilangan uang, bahkan sebagai pedagang profesional dan aktif, sangat menyakitkan bila Anda memikirkan hal-hal yang bisa Anda gunakan dengan uang yang hilang. Anda mungkin diajarkan untuk berpikir seperti itu. Nilai sosial dan budaya untuk melindungi diri Anda diprogramkan pada Anda sejak usia dini. Bila Anda kehilangan uang dalam perdagangan, Anda merasa bersalah dan mungkin sedikit panik. Cukup alami dan mudah dimengerti, tapi siapa bilang pedagang itu alami atau bahkan mereka bertindak dengan cara yang mudah dimengerti Sebagai trader profesional yang aktif, Anda harus mengubah pemikiran Anda tentang kerugian. Anda harus melawan kecenderungan alami Anda dan mengetahui bahwa kerugian adalah bagian dari setiap bisnis. Toko ritel mengambil kerugian dari kerusakan, mengutil dan pencurian karyawan. Perusahaan asuransi mengambil kerugian dari klaim palsu. Perusahaan tembakau dituntut. Perusahaan kimia membuat batch yang buruk dan harus membuangnya. Petani kehilangan hasil panen. Peternak kehilangan ternak. Saya tidak bisa memikirkan bisnis yang tidak mengalami kerugian. Jadi, apa yang Anda lakukan tentang cara Anda memprogram dari masa kanak-kanak Anda harus menghadapi perasaan Anda dan menghadapinya. Kenali bahwa Anda mengalami rasa bersalah. Pahami mengapa Anda memiliki perasaan itu. Bagi kita masing-masing alasan yang mendasari mungkin berbeda dalam jenis dan intensitas. Ini membantu untuk mengakui fakta bahwa mungkin ada konsekuensi buruk untuk mengambil risiko dengan uang hasil jerih payah Anda, dan ingatlah bahwa perasaan bersalah yang terkait dengan hilangnya uang yang tidak dapat Anda keluarkan malah lebih buruk lagi. Tidak ada yang memiliki perdagangan bisnis dengan uang yang tidak mampu mereka rugi. Saat berdagang dengan uang yang telah disisihkan khusus untuk diperdagangkan, dan Anda dan keluarga Anda (jika memilikinya), semua setuju bahwa ini adalah uang yang dapat Anda keluarkan bila terjadi kerugian sehingga menghilangkan banyak tekanan kehilangan. . Secara aktif menghindari kerugian melalui manajemen risiko yang cerdas juga membantu meredakan stres dan untuk menurunkan kemungkinan kerugian bencana. Bila Anda tahu bahwa Anda telah melakukan semua yang Anda bisa untuk meminimalkan risiko dan Anda merasa yakin bahwa Anda dapat bertahan dalam hit utama pada skenario akun Anda, Anda akan bisa lebih mudah menangani kerugian. Manajemen risiko, uang, dan perdagangan yang efektif berjalan jauh untuk membangun kepercayaan diri Anda dan menghilangkan tekanan dari kerugian perdagangan. Begitu Anda menangani masalah risiko, uang, dan perdagangan, Anda juga harus memastikan bahwa Anda memiliki modal perdagangan yang cukup. Salah satu cara paling pasti untuk mengakhiri kegagalan di pasar forex atau pasar berjangka lainnya adalah dengan memanfaatkannya di bawah kapitalisasi. Persentase terbesar kegagalan bisnis dari semua jenis adalah dari kapitalisasi. Asosiasi Bisnis Kecil A.S. menyatakan bahwa hanya 1 dari 1.500 usaha kecil yang sukses di akhir 5 tahun. Mayoritas kegagalan bisnis tersebut berasal dari bisnis yang kurang mendapat perhatian. Tidak berbeda dengan bisnis forex dan perdagangan berjangka lainnya. Anda memiliki banyak peluang untuk berhasil dalam bisnis perdagangan yang dimulai dengan akun kecil 5.000 seperti yang Anda lakukan untuk memenangkan Undian Negara.8221 Terlepas dari tingkat apa Anda memulai dengan Anda harus segera memotong kerugian perdagangan. Semakin cepat trading Anda mengalami kerugian, semakin tinggi probabilitas Anda pada akhirnya akan menguntungkan. Dengan belajar mengambil kerugian dengan cepat Anda akan sukses lebih cepat. Kerugian perdagangan adalah biaya bisnis. Dalam satu hal, kerugian perdagangan adalah bagian dari biaya berbisnis. Dalam arti lain, biaya kerugian adalah bagian dari apa yang Anda bayarkan untuk mempelajari bisnis perdagangan komoditas berjangka. Kerugian adalah fakta hidup dalam kehidupan pedagang. Kerugian tidak mudah diterima. Tapi Anda tentu tidak perlu belajar mencintai mereka. 5. Panik Perdagangan dan Pasar Cepat Hei Joe Dengan semua pembicaraan tentang kepanikan yang mungkin terjadi, apakah Anda yakin bahwa pemerintah akan turun tangan untuk memperbaiki sebuah kecelakaan Ketika sebuah kepanikan perdagangan mencengkeram pasar, tanyakan pada diri Anda apa yang akan dilakukan pemerintah untuk memulihkan kewarasan dan perlindungan Kepentingan keuangan terbaiknya. During stock markets panics, the Federal Reserve injects instant liquidity by repurchasing government securities, and lower interest rates. In October 1987, T-Bond futures rallied 10,000 per contract, when the Dow crashed 508 points in one day, which was considered a gigantic market crash based on the low DJIA during that time period. There were times when no NYSE stock was traded, because there were no buyers. It took one trader 4-days to get through to Charles Schwab to confirm a trade. The phone was on automatic redial from 7 AM to 7 PM, during that 4-day period. It took 14 days to confirm the trade It is my firm belief based on evidence in my possession that the government really does have a Plunge Protection Team, an offshore entity that enters the stock market at times when prices are falling too fast. This entity buys whatever, wherever, and whenever needed to keep the stock market from an outright crash. When grain prices rise sharply due to flood damage news, is it in the best interests of the government to allow further price rises Consider the inflationary effect of the heavily grain weighted CRB Index. When grain prices increase due to growing problems, farmers feel resentment against Chicago traders, who may profit from farmers misfortune. The government may issue false reports to drive grain prices lower. The 1993 floods affected 70 of the corn and 50 of the soybean producing states, yet yields were higher than 1991 production levels except for three states. How could this be Were government figures altered to hold inflation down You bet they were. Watch for late 1993-type bullish government grain market releases to propel grain markets substantially higher when conditions of flood or drought appear. Order a Trading Consultation or Website Inquiry by Going-Here 6. Hey Joe I want to learn how to trade, but I8217m having a conflict. Is trading futures gambling Trading futures is gambling only when you trade them without full knowledge of what you are doing. There is a good measure of self-knowledge required to choose the proper course to follow if you want to become a trader. It has even been postulated that many small traders in the forex and futures markets, without knowing it, secretly want to lose. They jump in with high hopes8212but feeling vaguely guilty. Guilty over gambling with the familys money, guilty over trying to get something for nothing, or guilty over plunging in without really having done much research or analysis. Then they punish themselves, for these or other sins, by selling out, demoralized, at a loss. A trader is gambling when heshe trades from ignorance. The gambler makes his trading decisions on gut feelings, hopes, dreams of getting rich quick, tips from the broker, 8220inside information8221 from friends, and from the improper understanding and use of indicators, oscillators, moving averages, and mechanical trading systems. In general, he is looking for a way to shortcut having to truly learn what is going on. Unfortunately, most new traders who attempt to trade futures fall into this category. However, true trading is actually speculation (managed risk). The speculator is willing to accept the risk of price fluctuation in return for the greater leverage that comes with that risk in the hopes of earning a greater profit. The true speculator makes his trading decisions based on knowledge gathered from information about the behavior of the underlying, seasonality, historical and current market trends, technical chart analysis, commodity fundamentals, investment market dynamics, and knowledge of those who trade it. 7. Hey Joe What about adding new positions when day trading A day trader should learn to press the market and add contracts at crucial trend confirmation intra day prices, moving all protective stops to break even with additional contracts. When a bull market makes new half day highs, instead of trading a one price unit size, trade two or more price units with a tighter stop. Either the market profitably explodes, or the trade is exited immediately. When building bull-market trade positions, move protective stop-loss orders to break-even as new trade positions are added. The best location for your protective stop-loss order is below a previous reaction low, swing-low, trendline, or psychological price resistance area. And keep in mind you are not adding to an existing position. You have it correct when you say adding 8220new8221 trade positions. They are new trading positions and must be managed as such, all the while remembering that each 8220new8221 position is put on that much closer to the end of the move and therefore carries increased trading risk of loss. 8. Hey Joe Do you think there is any truth in that individual traders are affected by the overall mood of the financial and forex market I believe there is a lot of truth in that statement. I also believe you must learn to detach yourself from the financial market moves. I read something a long time ago and saved it. I don8217t remember who wrote it, but here it is: 8220Short-term trading must rank near the top of the list of the most unpredictable and exciting occupations on our planet. As the aggregate of market players ride the market to soaring heights and terrifying lows, the collective consciousness of the crowd soars to euphoria and falls in despair in concert with the price movement. 8220If the crowd experiences a cumulative emotion8212ranging from mild optimism, greed and euphoria, to minor anxiety, then fear and outright panic8212it stands to reason that all but the most robotic of traders go through personal feelings that mirror the experience of the crowd. 8220Its common to find traders who stay in high spirits when the market trends up, and feel dejected and depressed when the market declines. In past years, this may have had more significance because many traders refused to sell short they missed out on market action when it tumbled. Another reason for the 8216up is good, down is bad8217 emotion seesaw lies in the unfortunate fact that when markets fall, many novice traders ignore their stop-loss points. A falling market falling account value. The downside to this syndrome, however, is more than detrimental to your wealth. Attaching your emotions to market gyrations can adversely influence your relationship with your loved ones and friends. 8220How do you stay disconnected and detached from market moods First, we state the obvious: acquire the knowledge and discipline needed to make wise trading choices. Second, refine money management skills it is an absolute 8216must.8217 Establish an overall, big-picture plan for your trading business, so daily market gyrations dont look so daunting. ALWAYS plan your trade and trade your plan. When in doubt, get out. If you dont enjoy selling short, when the market 8216rolls over,8217 take profits and stay on the sidelines until conditions improve. After all, when you are in cash, you will have no emotional connection tied to market activity. 8220Once you learn to disconnect from market mood, you will shake off emotional limitations that may have hampered your trading decisions. And that should have a positive impact on your trading success.8221 Details on Trader Consulting or Making a Website Inquiry by Going-here 9. Hey Joe I know I am an over-trader. I guess I just don8217t understand why In your overall management, where does over trading fit in Over-trading fits in under the topic of risk management. We are talking 8220risk control.8221 First, I would say that risk management is one of the most important things that you really need to understand. Second, you must begin to under-trade, under-trade, under-trade. Whatever you think your trade position ought to be, cut it at least in half. My experience with novice traders is they trade 3 to 5 times too much. Other than on spreads, they are taking 5 to 10 percent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks. The principle of preservation of capital implies that before you consider any potential market involvement, risk should be the prime concern. You should consider the potential reward, only in the context of the potential risk. Risk must become the determining factor in taking a position. This is the true meaning of riskreward analysis. Properly applied, it sets the standard for evaluating not only whether to take a trade at all, but also to what degree. Preservation of capital8212refuse to lose8212becomes the basis for smart money management. 10. Is there order in the markets Are there definable chart formations that form the basic building blocks of price action Yes, I believe there are, and I am happy to share them with you. I discovered them many years ago, over time and through the use of statistics. Three basic patterns have emerged that can be seen in any time frame on any chart that is capable of showing you the high and low values of prices. I am interested in the interpretation of these patterns as they apply to price movement. I call this discovery 8220The Law of Charts,8221 and it is available to readers of this publication at no charge simply by visiting our website. You can discover the Law of Charts on any kind of chart commonly used in market analysis today: the law can be seen on bar charts, candlestick charts, and point and figure charts. The Law of Charts The three basic patterns making up The Law of Charts are as follows: Some of these may be further subdivided as follows: For years traders have looked at price charts and wondered what they meant. Sometimes viewing a price chart is similar to looking at the stars and trying to figure out which ones to connect to show you the formation known as 8220Taurus, the bull.8221 All too often chart formations exist only in the eye of the beholder. At what point does a 8220pennant8221 formation become a pennant What exactly constitutes a 8220coil,8221 and when is it a coil Exactly how would you define a 8220head and shoulders8221 formation When can you call a 8220megaphone8221 a megaphone MORE IMPORTANTLY, what do any of these formations tell you The discovery of The Law of Charts was quite accidental8212something on the order of Newton discovering the Law of Gravity when an apple fell on his head. As with most discoveries, The Law of Charts was discovered through simple observation8212studying charts for many years until the formations just popped out and revealed themselves. The details of the Law of Charts are seen in our e-book entitled, of all things, 8220The Law of Charts.8221 To see how this trader law is applied in regular trading, we are happy to share with you our weekly journal in which we show actual application of the law. The weekly journal, which we call 8220Chart Scan8482,8221 is also available at no charge. The Meaning of the Formations 1-2-3s occur only at the end of trends and swings. They are an indication of a change in trend. They take place when the directional momentum of a trend is diminishing. Exactly the way to identify 1-2-3 formations is detailed in our e-book. You will also find in the e-book how to register to receive our Chart scan journal. Consolidations and the ability to identify them are of utmost importance because prices tend to move sideways far more than they tend to trend. Ledges occur only when values are trending. They constitute a pause in the trend. The pause may be due to profit taking or, more usually, are reflective of uncertainty in the market. The traders e-book explains more fully how to deal with so called Ledges. Ledges are consolidation areas consisting of no less than four occurrences of price value and no more than ten occurrences of price value, having two matching highs and two matching lows. Congestion areas are sideways consolidations of price value and reflect periods of accumulation and distribution. You might say that they indicate a market that is essentially at fair value with no significant changes in supply or demand. Congestion consists of from 11 to 20 occurrences of price value prior to a breakout. Trading ranges are extended consolidations of price value. They consist of sideways movement lasting twenty-one bars or more. Interestingly, statistics show that breakouts from trading ranges occur most often on price value occurrences from twenty-one to twenty-nine. Furthermore, the narrower the trading range becomes, the more explosive tends to be the breakout, and the wider the trading range becomes, the less explosive will be any breakout from the sideways action. Trading ranges also reflect markets that are at fair value with little change in supply or demand. Ross hooks always occur as the result of profit taking. A ross-hook is defined as the first failure of prices to continue in the direction they were previously moving following the breakout of a 1-2-3 formation, the breakout of any of the consolidation patterns mentioned above, or the breakout of a previous Ross hook. Each one of the basic trade formations is able to be defined. The specific definitions are available in the previously mentioned e-book, 8220The Law of Charts.8221 Since the basic formations occur in a variety of ways when seen on a chart depicting actual price action, we want to help you fully understand how to apply the law. There is considerably more to the Law of Charts than can possibly be described in this overview article. You can obtain a clear, thorough understanding of how we trade using The Law of Charts through the Chart Scan, which is sent out by E-mail each week. We invite you to join us in a better understanding of what you see on a price chart. Joe Ross8217 Trading Educators is dedicated to helping serious traders to become better traders. Our staff and branch offices consist of real traders trading real markets. Trading Educators is involved in day trading and position trading in a variety of markets including futures, equities, and forex. In addition, our offices regularly trade futures spreads and options on futures. 11. Hey Joe If I get all my forex buy and sell signals to work properly, I should come out a winner, right Wrong The perennial questions are, 8220Should I buy Should I sell8221 All too many traders focus their efforts on identifying buy and sell signals. In fact, that8217s what most trading books consist of8212some way to find buy and sell signals. Trading systems are usually all about 8220where to get in.8221 The research and analysis traders do is geared towards reaching the goal of getting that magic 8220base line8221 directive to guide their actions. How ignorant can you be Any successful, experienced trader will tell you that although properly identifying buysell signals is important, it8217s not the key to being successful. Instead, the way you manage each trade is what will determine your success. Traders who take the baseline approach tend to believe that the success of their trading activity is dependent on following the right buysell signals at the right time. Clearly, it8217s important that a trader be able to understand the process of generating signals and to use the methods involved. Realistically though, almost any financial trader can find a way to generate signals (whether using technical methods already out there, coming up with their own system, or using their platform8217s automated signal generation tools). Any successful, experienced commodity futures and forex trader will tell you your trade doesn8217t begin and end with a buy or sell. There8217s a trade management process involved. For each commodity futures trade you make, you8217re making a group of decisions. The way you manage and time those decisions is what will determine the success of your trade. Let8217 say 2 traders get the same trade signal at the same time and act on it. One8217s trade may result in profits while the other8217s results in losses. How is this possible It can occur because each trader made a different combination of decisions throughout the course of the trade. The decisions may include scaling in andor out of the trade, using or not using trailing stop-loss orders, setting or not setting profit price target objectives prior to entry, patience or lack thereof, etc. The forex and commodities futures traders who made the most effective overall combination of trading decisions will have the better trade results in the end. Of course, there are time when pure chance, gives the better result to the worst trader. It8217s very important to regard trading as a process, and to understand that as a trader your efforts need to be focused on the activity of trading itself, as opposed to getting a quick base line answer. Because there are many things to take into consideration in making your trades successful, it8217s essential that you educate and train yourself in all the different areas. Learn how to develop better trading plans and to trade a sound and proven important trading technique and technical indicator, and learn how to apply what you have developed to the overall process of executing a trade vs the original impulse to enter or stay-out of a trade to the control of your thought processes and emotions in making and managing that trade. 12. Hey Joe I8217m a long-term trader. Any trading advice for me Note the yearly ranges for the commodities you trade. What is this yearly high and low, are they higher highs, lows and closes compared to last year Does the close confirm price action What is the long term trend How does this years compare to last three years average range Should next year have greater volatility than this year How much based in dollars was the commodities price move from the annual lowest low to highest high price How much did you take out of that range What should next years high and low be for the commodities you trade based on the yearly trend analysis These questions define the yearly long term vertical bars, use the monthly priced bars to answer them. Use weekly price bars to answer major trend questions for monthly highs and lows. 13. Hey Joe At the trading seminar you said it8217s a good idea to study military campaigns if you want to be a good trader. Would you elaborate on this a little Grant and Napoleon had one ability that separated them from other generals, the ability to maneuver troops and supplies to their most effective placements under rapidly changing circumstances. Traders should learn how to manage their funds, rework stop placements, and change their position size with changing market conditions. Conducting warfare and commodity trading have many common factors. All modern warfare is derived from the spear and shield, attack and defend, offense and defense. For trading markets, offense is trade entry and defense is the protective stop. Day trading is like guerrilla warfare, which was first used in Europe during the early 1800s when Napoleon placed his brother on the throne of Spain. Attack rapidly then retreat. Value of Persistence: In the Battle of the Wilderness, Grant let the Southerners know one thing, he would never give up and would fight them under the harshest of conditions. After the battle was over, instead of retreating back to Washington to rest, as some past cowardly Northern generals had done, Grant moved south and stopped Lee from sending reinforcements to Atlanta, which fell to Sherman. The Civil War was won from the Battle of the Wilderness, which Grant is still incorrectly thought to have lost. Grant broke the South psychologically after the Battle of the Wilderness. The stock market or futures trader is a successful human being for the courageous act of trying to become a success trader, regardless of his brokers account equity statement. Churchill said, quotNever give up. Never, never, never give up.quot That statement defines persistence and commitment. There are many trading systems that are profitable, yet there is only one way to correctly analyze price action. Those lessons are contained by regular practice reading charts and working out what you see there. Dont give up and you will find them on the charts. 14. Hey Joe I know you must have been a truly committed trader when you began. How do I get myself to be in control Statistics and society may predict, but you alone determine whether you will succeed or fail. You alone are in control take responsibility for your performance and your life. There are always tremendous opportunities in the markets. It is not what happens it is what you do with what happens that makes the difference between profit and loss. Most traders move from trading method to trading method, over time, until they find one that suits them8230 one that is comfortable to run, and tests well first by trade back-testing, and then by real-time trade testing. Some traders never stop looking for the 8220right8221 way to trade. That is a problem. There are many ways to trade that can generate nice profits over time. To settle on a right way for you to trade: 8226 First, you have to believe in the process which leads to the generation of your entry signals. Does that process make sense to you Maybe you8217re a visual sort of person and you are drawn to Candlestick charting. Take the time to understand why the patters mean 8220reversal8221 and not just accept the 8220picture8221. Go deep. Choose a guru to follow. Maybe you learn best from mentoring. Choose wisely. 8226 Second, method you decide to go with, back-test it. In today8217s modern world of software, there8217s no excuse not to run all the back data you can through your method and see what the results would have been. 8226 Third, THINK about the process you are choosing and why it8217s right for you. THINK about the results you get from your back-testing and your real-time testing of your system. 8226 Fourth, BE A MACHINE (DON8217T THINK) when you are trading your method. This is why I am a huge proponent of mental training for traders. Unless you can control yourself, you can never control your trading. In order to control yourself and your emotions, you have to believe totally in the way you trade. Do the work. Think. Then don8217t think. 15. Hey Joe If you had to come up with a set of steps that would bring trading success, what would those be. I guess from time to time I would say this somewhat differently, but what comes to mind is as follows: Here are five steps to becoming a successful trader 1. Focus on trading vehicles, strategies, and time horizons that suit your personality. You need to be comfortable. 2. Identify non-random price behavior, wherever you can find it. 3. Absolutely convince yourself that what you have found is statistically valid. 4. Set up trading rules. 5. Follow the rules, but don8217t be afraid to break them if the don8217t work. In a nutshell, it all comes down to: a. Do your own thing (independence) b. And do the right thing (discipline). 16. Hey Joe What about adding new positions when day trading Day traders should learn to press the market and add contracts at crucial trend confirmation intra day prices, moving all protective stops to break even with additional contracts. When a bull market makes new half day highs, instead of trading a one price unit size, trade two or more price units with a tighter stop. Either the market profitably explodes, or the trade is exited immediately. Trader Consulting Information, or Make a Website Inquiry by Going-here When building bullish trading positions, move your protective stop-loss to break even as new positions are added. The location ideal for the protective stops are below a previous reaction low, a trend line, or psychological resistance price. And keep on mind that you are not adding to an existing position. You have it correct when you say adding 8220new8221 positions. They are new positions and must be managed as such, all the while remembering that each 8220new8221 position is put on that much closer to the end of the move and therefore carries increased risk. 17. What exactly is a hedger, and what is a hedge A hedger could be someone who grows and sells hedges, but in this case we are not talking about horticulture, although the idea of growing a hedge as a means of protection lends itself to the concept called 8220hedging8221 in the futures markets. The details of hedging can be somewhat complex but the principle is simple. Hedgers are individuals and firms that make purchases and sales in the futures market solely for the purpose of establishing a known price level 8211 weeks or months in advance 8211for something they later intend to buy or sell in the cash market (such as at a grain elevator or in the bond market). In this way they attempt to protect themselves against the risk of an unfavorable price change in the interim. Or hedgers may use futures to lock in an acceptable margin between their purchase cost and their selling price. Consider this example: A jewelry manufacturer will need to buy additional gold from his supplier in six months. Between now and then, however, he fears the price quotes for gold may increase. That could be a problem because he has already published his catalog for one-year ahead. To lock in the price level at which gold is presently being quoted for delivery in 6-months, he buys a futures contract at a price of say, 350 an ounce. If, 6-months later, the cash market price of gold has risen to say 370, he will have to pay his supplier that amount to acquire gold. However, the extra 20 an ounce cost will be offset by a 20 an ounce profit when the futures contract bought at 350 is sold for 370. In effect, the hedge provided insurance (protection) against an increase in the price of gold. It locked in a net cost of 350, regardless of what happened to the cash market price of gold. Had the price of gold declined instead of risen, he would have incurred a loss on his futures position but this would have been offset by the lower cost of acquiring gold in the cash market. The number and variety of hedging possibilities is practically limitless. A cattle feeder can hedge against a decline in livestock prices and a meat packer or supermarket chain can hedge against an increase in livestock prices. Borrowers can hedge against higher interest rates, and lenders against lower interest rates. Investors can hedge against an overall decline in stock prices, and those who anticipate having money to invest can hedge against an increase in the over-all level of stock prices. Daftarnya terus berlanjut. Whatever the hedging strategy, the common denominator is that hedgers willingly give up the opportunity to benefit from favorable price changes in order to achieve protection against unfavorable price changes. 18. What8217s the meaning of 8220Position Limits8221 Although the average trader is unlikely to ever approach them, exchanges and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) establish limits on the maximum speculative trade position any one trader can have at one time, in any one forex or futures market contract. The purpose is to prevent one buyer or seller from being able to exert undue influence on the market price in either the establishment or liquidation of positions. Position limits are stated in number of contracts or total units of the commodity. The easiest way to obtain the types of information just discussed is to ask your broker or other advisor to provide you with a copy of the contract specifications for the specific futures contracts you are thinking about trading. Better yet you can obtain the information from the exchange where the contract is traded. Position Limits can dash the hope of even the most ambitious traders. With a certain number of contracts, you then have to report your intentions. Along the lines of Position Limits, are certain limits built into any venture which limit a trader8217s ability to trade large size. It is a common fallacy of most aspiring traders to think that if they could just learn to be successful trading a single contract, just think what they could do with 100 contracts, or 1,000 contracts. Besides becoming reportable, the trader runs smack up against two immutable laws: 8226 The law of diminishing returns 8226 The law of diminishing productivity The larger the trading size of the trader, the fewer markets he can enter without becoming everyone8217s target. When you trade too big, everyone is out to get you. If they catch you going the wrong way on a trade they will make mince-meat out of you. So that trader must stick only with markets that can absorb his size. The more contracts you put on, the more problems you have with fills. It becomes difficult to get all contracts filled at a single price. Instead you find yourself managing a series of prices. No fun at all You are so busy managing one trade, that you can no longer manage other trades. Having to manage a lot of different prices reduces your productive ability. 19. Oversold or overbought markets One way to look at consolidation areas is to try to buy into a market when it is said to be 8220oversold8221 at support, or sell into one that is said to be 8220overbought8221 at resistance. In either case you do this as soon as it begins to move in the opposite direction. Overbought conditions are said to exist when a market has experienced rapid price increases. Intermediate resistance is a price, or clusters of prices, which have formed at price levels not exceeded for several days or weeks. The opposite is true for oversold conditions. They are said to exist when a market has experienced a rapid decrease in prices. Intermediate support is a price, or clusters of prices, which have formed at price levels not violated for several days or weeks. Timing such trades based upon the chart pattern greatly reduces risk and facilitates such a counter trend entry. The minimum price objective for this type of entry is generally about 50 of the price movement from the previous top to the previous bottom. 20. Three components of market timing All market timing has three components: entry into the position with a protective stop, repositioning the protective stop, and exiting the trade when it is completed. Profits may take care of themselves, but losses require money management. These timing components must be built into every successful trading system. Good stop placements, relative to price action, are like fishing for big fish using a light line the right amount of tension is required at all times. Picture it this way: If a fish is given too much fishing line, i.e. too wide a stop placement, he will come towards the boat then explode outward, thus ripping the hook out of his mouth, i.e. taking the trader out of the market. If too much tension is applied, i.e. stop placements too close, the fisherman rips the hook out of the fishs mouth and loses the fish. The trader with too close a stop takes himself out of the market. The wise trader must know how to use stop placements, especially if he fishes at high risk bottoms or tops. 21. Pullback or trend reversal When seasonal pressures favor a trend already underway, a pullback can offer attractive entry opportunities 8211 if you know what to look for. When seasonal influences coincide with an emerging trend, a reciprocal relationship can develop that generates dynamic price movement. Short-term pressures reinforce longer-term trends, and longer-term fundamental change promotes a greater sense of urgency in seasonal pressures. Consider the effect of a seasonal increase in demand when supplies are in structural decline amid a potential shortage. A trend is a series of actions and reactions. When prices move too far too fast in one direction, they tend to pull back 8211 almost like 8220two steps forward, one step back.8221 Not only does this pullback allow the market to correct any imbalance, it also affords lower-risk entry opportunities before the trend reasserts itself. The questions, of course, are how much of a pullback and when is a pullback a reversal instead. Such is the trade-off in buying pullbacks, but general rules of thumb exist to help. Probably the best rule of thumb is to determine whether or not the pullback is nothing more than profit taking. Profit taking will generally not cause more than three price bars of pullback. A trend reversal should be considered whenever there are more than 3 price bars in the pullback. More than 4 price bars gives a very strong indication that the move may be at least temporarily over and that immediate consolidation of some time period is in process. 22. Defined risk Defined risk is something to be quite concerned about. We always want to keep it as small as possible relative to the anticipated reward. Risk can come in unexpected ways. As a rule, you don8217t count on lousy or unreasonable fills. You don8217t count on the market being under fast conditions at the time you enter. You don8217t count on the fact that even though you are trading in a normally liquid market, today is the day when traders are just standing around. You don8217t count on the fact that tick size may be unusually large just when you are entering the market. Perhaps you have a resting stop, and just when prices reach your stop, the market becomes fast or the tick size unusually large. You don8217t count on a huge fund entering the market just at the time prices reach your resting order. It is because there are so many unplanned for items that can exaggerate risk, that we learn to respect the trend. The reward can be surprising, the risk defined. The market contains the knowledge of all the players, therefore it knows more than any one of its players. When a market trends, it does so for a reason. At times, the reason is never fully understood until afterward. Trends usually get underway slowly and then accelerate as they gain momentum. Momentum is potentially as helpful to a trader as a ocean waves are to a surfer. And because momentum is also a function of market psychology, trends can carry to even greater extremes than seem possible, thereby legitimizing the question, 8220How high is high8221 or 8220How low is low8221 It is human emotion that drives markets to extremes. For instance, one definition of an up trend is a series of progressively higher highs and lows on a price chart. By that definition a trend becomes risky when there is penetration of the most recent prominent low. However, that fixed chart point can also help a trader to estimate the depth of corrections, and to identify possible entry points. By understanding the trend you can get a better idea of the amount of your risk exposure. Trading with the trend can place the probabilities in favor of your ultimate success. When it comes to trading with the trend there may be as many ways as there are traders. I prefer to 8220nibble8221 the trend, taking frequent profits as I go and then reentering ifwhen the trend continues. When nibbling the market, I use no indicators of any kind. In a down trend, my trailing exit stop is always 1 tick above the high of the latest price bar. My entries are 1 tick below the latest price bar. If prices gap beyond my entry point I do not enter. Sooner or later every trend breaks down, and not coming to the full realization of that seems to be the undoing of many traders. There is a tendency to hang on much too long. 23. Is it true that selling a market when it is limit up is usually a great strategy This 8220brilliant8221 strategy stems from the idea that selling a market at limit up, may result in the trader gaining two limit moves in his favor while theoretically not losing any money the day of entry. I think is that this is an absurd idea. I don8217t advise this high risk approach as a trading tactic. Keep in mind that most markets that remain limit up on the close, will open sharply higher the next day over 90 of the time. The limit-up sell is recommended only as a partial profit taking measure, not to initiate short positions which may be considered on the next higher open. If ever trapped into a limit up move situation try to buy deferred futures contracts or call options immediately and ask how many contracts there are to buy on the most active futures contract. If there are over 1000 contracts to buy, do not assume the most active futures contract will come off limit to trade the remainder of that day. 24. Rallies and Declines The price relationship and magnitude of price movement, where rallies and declines occur, defines trend. A bull market has a higher high followed by a higher low which should be followed by a higher high the majority of the time. The magnitude of rallies is greater than the correction of declines. Examining the distances between highs and lows allows the lowest risk entries, and forecasts where and when market tops and bottoms should occur for profit taking exits and new position entries. Buying bull market corrections makes good sense, since the next rally should be greater than the decline on which the position was taken. That, in essence is what we are doing with the Traders Trick Entry. Declines should not be lower than the previous price bottom. The same principle applies to day trading. It is the downward corrections in a bull market that quantify the strength of the market. With a chart pattern recognition approach, it is very possible to know where any market will trade days, weeks, or months in advance greater than 78 of the time. Too bad we don8217t know exactly when 25. Detecting the End of a Trend One way to know that a trend is over is as follows: Downtrend: A low is made and then a correction (retracement) follows. If the distance from the low to the high of the correction is greater than the height of the two corrections prior to making the low, you are probably looking at the end of a trend. The highest probability is for prices to now enter a consolidation, since few markets consistently make Vee bottoms. Uptrend: A high is made and then a correction (retracement) follows. If the distance from the high to the low of the correction is greater than the depth of the two corrections prior to making the high, you are probably looking at the end of a trend. The probabilities are now equal for prices to consolidate or for an actual change in trends. Markets make Vee tops more often than they make Vee bottoms. 26. No more than two indicators are the maximum to confirm price action Simplify your approach to technical analysis as much as possible. Emphasize price action analysis, de-emphasize indicator usage, and unless you are in a position to gain lots of information, totally ignore fundamental analysis. No more than two indicators are the maximum to confirm price action. At a trading seminar, at which I spoke, one trader there used 9 technical indicators to trade the futures markets. More than half of the trading seminar was devoted to technical analysis indicators and their usage in trading. Wells Wilder wrote the best book ever written on trade indicators, quotNew Concepts in Commodity Trading Methodsquot and it should be read before oscillator usage or trading seminar attendance. However, keep in mind Mr. Wilder eventually publicly disavowed every indicator except ADX. These days, I do not use Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci, open-interest, or RSI, in my technical analysis. I use mostly mental analysis of buying and selling pressures, as expressed in a series of price bars or chart patterns. If you are going to trade with indicators despite my ranting and raving against them, the best way to trade them is to know what levels they achieve only 15 of the time when at a major top or bottom, and know the percentage of price action and indicator divergence for each market in which you use the indicator. If only 15 of all Stochastic values go above 83 for Treasury Bonds, then upon reaching that value wait for confirming price action to generate a profitable sell signal. Traders may combine indicator values to specific time value tops and bottoms for counter-trend price objectives, but be sure to use non-correlating indicators to do the job. The 15 level is different for each market. Price vs technical analysis divergence is an indicator value created when the market price moves to new higher levels, but the indicator remains below a previous indicator value level relevant to a previous price top. Corn used to have price action and stochastics divergence 80 of the time at bottoms. Knowing the percentage of divergence at tops and bottoms for each commodity makes money. What is the average counter trend price move when the Stochastics rise above 83 for T-Bonds with divergence If you don8217t know, you need to know. Tell you what, it8217s a lot easier learning to read a futures chart and to be stingy in your use of indicators. 27. TRADING THE ROSS HOOK8482 The Ross hook8482 (Rh)8482 is always created as the result of profit-taking. It is defined in the following way: 8226 The first failure of prices to continue in the direction they were going regardless of time frame: Subsequent to the breakout of the 2 point of a 1-2-3 formation subsequent to the breakout of any area of price consolidation containing at least 10 price bars Let8217s look at some examples, including a daily chart: Of course the proper way to trade the Rh8482 is through the use of the Traders Trick Entry8482. The Traders Trick Entry8482 and the Rh8482 go hand in hand and are part and parcel of each other. The 1-2-3 formation is part of the Law of Charts8482, and the Traders Trick Entry8482 is the best way to trade the Rh8482 formation. Both are available to anyone as a free resource at Click-on Law of Charts8482 and also on The Traders Trick Entry8482 (Resources). I give these links here in order to save precious space for the remainder of this trading article. Now let8217s look at a 5-minute chart. Notice that every Rh8482 is a potential 1 point for prices to move in the opposite direction. It is important that you refrain from taking a breakout of the point of the Rh8482. Too often this will place you in the market too late for capturing a sizable portion of each move. There are numerous ways in which you can use the Rh8482. I will present here just one of the methods. Hooks can be combined with indicators if you like. Here we will combine the 1-2-3, the hook and a simple moving average, as one way in which you might trade. The chart shows trending prices underscored by a simple 9 bar moving average of the Opens. To compute the moving average, simply add together the Opening prices of the latest 9 price bars, and divide by 9, and then plot. Here are the rules for trading: First you must define a trend. I did it here by virtue of the violation of the 2 point of a 1-2-3 low formation. We buy one tick above the 2 point as prices move higher (breakout) above the 2 point. For protection, we tail a stop loss one tick below the previous bar8217s value for the moving average. In our example, prices do not move below the previous bar8217s moving average until the price bar marked 8216Out.8217 Let8217s talk briefly about trade management. Assuming you bought 3 contracts upon entry you would cash one contract as soon as you could cover costs and take a small profit. You would then use a trailing stop-loss protecting 50 of your unearned paper profits, and move one stop to break even. If you prefer, move both stops to break even. Once prices move up a sufficient amount to where both stop losses can be placed above break even, trail one stop at 50 and another wherever it feels comfortable. Keep in mind that 8216stop loss8217 means protecting your position against a serious loss of margin (which can easily happen in the forex market in particular). Once the trade is in the clear, stop-loss means protecting your open position equity against loss of profits. The simple trend following method we have shown you is not the 8216be-all to end-all8217 method of following a trend. There is much more to learn about trading trends. You might consider any of the following money management styles: 1. Taking all of your position off at once time at a specific objective of points, ticks, or dollars. 2. Taking 13rd of your position off at a first objective and then the remainder at a second objective. 3. Taking 23rds of your position off at a first objective and the remainder at a second objective. 4. Taking 12 of your position off at a first objective and 12 at a second objective. All of the above methods involve only money management. Futures money-management involves setting monetary, tick, point, or even percentage trade objectives. The following methods involve money management for the first taking of profit at an objective, but then using a trailing stop (trade management) for one or more of the profit taking exits. 5. Taking 13rd of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop with 23rds of your position. 6. Taking 23rds of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop for the final 13rd of your position. 7. Taking 12 of your position off at a first objective and trailing a stop for the remaining 12 of your position. I8217m sure by now you can see that there are other management combinations as well. By means of testing you should be able to determine which method works best for your chosen market and time frame. Also realize that no method of management is to be set in stone. Markets change constantly, and you must adapt your trading to the realities of your chosen market. Let me give you an example: At one point in my trading career, when the currencies were heavily traded, a time prior to the creation of the stock indices and US dollar market, I found in trading the Swiss Franc I was able to consistently make 12-ticks on most Traders Trick Entries8482. Trading was during time intervals very easy for me. All I had to do was place my entry stop order in the market, and contingent upon being filled, I would have a Market if Touched order resting 12 ticks beyond my proposed entry point. This method of management worked for almost a year. Then one day I noticed that all I could get was 10 ticks 8211 eventually only 8 ticks, then 6 ticks. This method of management was not worth trading for less than 6 ticks, because at 6 6ticks I had to double my position size to make the same amount as before. When I could no longer get 6 ticks I abandoned the trading method. I moved to other markets and did well in those 8211 mainly the British Pound and the Japanese Yen. However, in those markets I had to trade a bit differently than in the Swiss Franc currency market. It took some time, and I periodically kept an eye on the Swiss franc. Then I noticed that it was once again possible to make 12 ticks. This time that niche lasted only 6 months and it was over, with Swissie moving back to under 6 ticks in a matter of days. In 47 years of trading, I have not found a holy grail of trading. In today8217s markets I find that I have to change and adapt more often than ever before. Changes in today8217s markets are many, and the markets continue to change more rapidly than ever before. New exchanges, new markets (such as Forex Currencies), computers and electronic trading systems, have all changed the markets 8211 especially with them bringing many thousands of new market participants. Since any commodity, futures or forex trading market is comprised of all its participants, the changes have been monumental. No longer are financial markets dominated by professional speculators and commercial interests. Today, much of day trading is heavily populated by newbie traders trying to get rich quick. The single phenomenon of amateur day traders has caused the forex and commodity futures markets they trade in to become chaotic and confusing. You must change. You must adapt. You must coordinate your trading with what is really happening. To that extent, you must trade the Rh intelligently and with common sense. There is nothing magic about Ross hooks. They describe what happens when traders take profits during the course of a trend. There is nothing more to gain than the realization of the simple fact of profit taking and what it looks like on a market bar chart. 28. It8217s our job to trade 8220Forex8221 not 8220Histories8221 Throughout the years I8217ve been trading and writing Ive often written about mind set8212having the right frame of mind for your trading so you become a winner. Ive stated that it is our job to trade quotfutures,quot not quothistories.quot The future is the next bar on your chart. You cant possibly know how it will develop, how fast prices will move, or where it will end up. Since none of us know where the very next tick will be, its impossible to know where the tick after that will be, or the tick after that, etc. All we know at any one time is what were seeing. Interestingly, what were seeing may not be true. If we are day trading, we are not sure that what were seeing is a bad tick, especially if it is not too far astray from the price action. The daily price bar-chart doesnt always tell the truth, either. The open may not be where the first trade took place. The closing price is merely a consensus, and may be quite a bit distant from where the last trade took place. The high price may not have been the high, and the low price may not have been the low. If you dont believe that, then I challenge you to pick up any newspaper and take a look at some of the back months. For example if the futures exchange has reported that a back month they opened at 9755, with a high of 9802, a low of 9760, and a close of 9784. Does that make any sense How can the low be higher than the open How can the close be higher than the high Yet thats the kind of garbage we have to put up with in this business. Now you know the problem with back testing of trades. Back testing and simulated non-real-time testing are based on nothing but lies. Thats why they dont work when you actually put them to the test with real trading using real data. In fact, there are many reasons why back-testing and trade simulations wont work, and I may as well dump them in your lap right here. Because you dont really know where the high or low were, or if the market ever really traded there, you dont know if your simulated stop was taken out or not. If you say you have a trading system in which if you get three up days followed by a down day, the market will be up twelve days from now 82 of the time, then your whole statistical universe may have been based on what is not true. Have you ever watched the cocoa market from the open to the market close You can clearly see it trading at the open, but by the time the market closes, the open will at times be placed opposite the close. That might be fifty or more points away from where you saw it open and trade, and also as born out by a report of time and sales. The way they report cocoa prices is going to give a fit to a lot of candlestick traders. Why Because they are going to see far too many quotdojisquot (openclose), more than are really there. Cocoa is not the only culprit, but historically, it is certainly one of the worst When you see a completed bar on a chart, you have no idea which way prices moved first. You dont know if they moved down first or up first. You dont know whether or not prices opened and then moved to the high, went down to the low, and then traded in the lower half of the price range until the close, at which time prices soared up to the high and closed there. You have no idea of the overlap. Ive seen prices trade from one extreme to the other more than once at each extreme. In any of those instances, your protective stop could have been taken out intra day. You know nothing of the market volatility on any given day, once you see a completed price bar. Were prices ticking their normal, exchange minimum tick, or were they ticking two or three times the minimum every time prices ticked Even if you purchased intra day tick data for your simulation, showing every single tick the market made, you dont know what the volatility was. For instance, you dont know if the SampP was ticking five minimum fluctuations per tick or twenty-five minimum fluctuations per tick, and if it was doing it quickly or slowly. You dont know and you cant know, and anyone who tells you their simulated system works, based on such phony baloney, is a liar. Not knowing how fast the market was means you cant really know what the slippage might have been. The faster the market, the greater the slippage potential. You can sit there and say you would have gotten in at a certain price or that you would have exited at a certain price, but if you dont know the market volatility, and how fast the market was, you do not know enough to say that you would have done such and such. Not knowing how fast the market was, you have no way of knowing how much slippage there would have been on your entry or your exit. Without knowledge of slippage, you cant possibly know the risk. That is also true of volatility. Volatility is made up of range of movement, speed, and tick size. If you dont know the extent of slippage, you will not know the extent of the risk you would have encountered. As if thats not bad enough, you also dont know how thin the market was at the time you would have traded it. If you are position trading, you cant go by the reported daily volume (which is always too late to do you any good), because there is no way to know what the volume was at the time your price would have been hit. So here again you have no idea of what slippage you might have encountered, and once more you would not have known the risk. If you want to spend your money on a commodity or forex trading system based upon the unknown, then you must assume the risk of doing so. Since this is a business of assuming risk, you are entitled to insure prices in any market that you care to. Insurance companies spend a lot of money to make sure that the risks they take are actuarially sound. That is the equivalent of finding good, well-formed, liquid markets to trade in. But any market can become totally chaotic. Markets can become extremely fast, and they can become quite volatile. So even if your system was back-tested in a liquid market, when that market becomes fast andor volatile, your back-tested, simulated system will not be able to cope with it and you will lose. Its like going out to write life insurance on a battle front. If your back-tested, simulated system does factor in some room for fast andor volatile markets, then, when you will be trading in slow, non-volatile markets with the built in factor, you will be utilizing a system that is totally inappropriate for the slow, non-volatile market you are in. The best you can hope for is an quotoptimizedquot system. How can you possibly expect to compete with traders who are acting and reacting to the reality that is at hand at the time Extensive back-testing is for historians, not traders. It is the wrong view of the markets. Your trading must be forward looking without being ridiculous about seeing into the future. If you dont know where the next tick is, how can you possibly know where the next market turning point will be Can you see into the future Perhaps you may like to trade using astrology. as it has been said the famous old-time trader (from the 1920s thru 1950s era) Mr. W. D. Gann (William D Ganns photo to the left) used to trade financial markets successfully in his personal trading of stocks amp commodities. Astrological traders are always trying to peer into the future. In the automobile business they have a saying, quotTheres an ass for every seat.quot Likewise, theres a fool for every fortune teller who claims he can see into the future. You can always go out to your local coven and hire a witch to tell you what beans will do tomorrow. She may even be right from time-to-time. You could always do as one charlatan did and run the biorhythm for each market based on the day it first started to trade. Or, you can cast the markets horoscope based on the same date. With the biorhythm, youll know what time of day the market should be on its highs, and what time of day it will be on its lows. Youll know which day the market will be ecstatic and reach a new high, and which day it will be down in the dumps and make a new low. However, youll find that from time to time the market will reach new lows on the day it was supposed to reach new highs. Well, thats easy enough to explain. You can tell everyone quotWeve had an inversion. Until the market inverts again, the lows will be the highs, and the highs will be the lowsquot 29. Help with Trading Orders One way I can help is to suggest that you pick up a copy of our 4 cassette tape-set and manual called 8220Trading Order Power Strategies .8221 No one has ever produced a product quite like it and many of our trader readers have told us that it was of immense help to them. However, until you get your copy, learn the following: When the market trades above a buy-stop price order, it becomes a market order. The first down tick, after the market order price is activated, determines the highest price a buy stop order may be filled. The rule to remember placing stop-loss orders is this, quotBuy above and sell below.quot Buy-stops are placed above the current market price and sell-stops are placed below the current market price. If a buy-stop price is hit, the order then becomes an at-the-market order to be filled by the pit broker at the best price possible. If an SampP buy stop is hit at 40 and the market trades 40, 45, 50, then 45, the worst fill a trader can receive is a 50, because 45 is the first down tick. The exception to this rule comes under 8220fast market8221 condition, when brokers are not legally held to any prices, or in some New York markets, where pit brokers possess a license to steal. Avoid trading fast markets (fast-market are common in the forex currency markets). A fast market condition exists when extremely volatile price action results from a large amount of orders executed or entered into the pit, almost simultaneously. These market conditions reflect emotional reactions usually in response to the most recent government statistics like crop reports, or unemployment data etc. Whenever you are able, avoid placing trade orders under fast market conditions because of the high probability that you will receive excessive trade slippage. In general use at-the-market orders when its absolutely necessary, unless your commodity or forex trading strategy calls for you to use them. 8220Slippage8221 is the price difference between the stop-loss-order price and the actual fill price this becomes dangerously excessive in fast markets, when brokers have no restrictions on order prices. Ask your futures broker about which government statistics can move the markets, thereby causing extreme price volatility. Try to avoid being in the market during the most critical governmental statistic release, when fast market conditions are likely to occur. It is wise to stay out for about an hour or unless the fast market condition calms down. 8220Triple Witching Day8221 involves the expiration of stock options, index options, and futures contracts. Always know when these days exist and try to avoid trading on these days, which are marked by excessive slippage, poor market fills due to extreme price volatility. All exchanges issue commodity report calendars that will be sent to traders upon request. The New York markets usually have more slippage than Chicago commodity markets, and estimated 100 per trade slippage and commodity broker commission deduction should be used when producing hypothetical testing results from a futures trading system. The New York markets have less restrictions on their floor brokers and customers orders are accepted on a 8220not held responsible8221 basis. Recent reports of 10-cents slippage in a slow silver futures market are not uncommon. For Chicago markets you can use 50 to 75 slippage and commission for testing purposes. 30. Hey Joe, I8217m never sure about trade position reversing. It is scary, isn8217t it The only reason to reverse a daily chart short term position is because the intra-day buying and selling pressures have reversed the short term trend direction. When only intra day trend changes, a reversal is not mandated unless longer-term time and price objectives have been satisfied. If the short term market trend does not change but a technical stop-order is generated, then a trade exit without a reversal is mandated. Powerful trading signals, like an outside daily or weekly vertical bar, a previous five-day resistance top or support bottom violation, demand immediate reversals. The above holds true for any time frame. If you are trading a 3-minute chart, and the trend reverses on the 1-minute price chart, its either time to get out of the market or time to consider reversing your market position. You are correct about reversing being scary. It most certainly is, and I would not suggest doing so unless you 1.) Know what you are doing. 2.) Have the stomach for it, sufficiently quick on your feet. Developing a stomach for trading position reversing takes practice and the self-assuredness that comes with the courage of your personal strength and convictions. Joe Ross is with TradingEducators UF.ORG is our Trademark - All Rights Reserved. This traders article is also copyrighted by Joe Ross amp Reprinted with permission. Some article additions, comments, enhancements and editing has been done by the UF website editor (in particular involving FX forex markets and forex traders), thus the entire traders article text is not all attributable to Mr Joe Ross, though most is contributed by Joe. 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